The Dallas Mavericks and their star point guard Kyrie Irving recently made it official – Irving would be out for the remainder of the season, looking for a fresh start in 2026-2027. While talking with fellow Mavs Moneyball contributor David Trink about what we could expect from Irving upon his return, I stated “I’m irrationally confident Kyrie is going to come back very much the same [as his pre-injury form].” Although David didn’t quite share my inflated enthusiasm, we both thought the point/counterpoint
was worthy of exploration.
To be clear, I freely acknowledge my belief is at least in part every bit as truly “irrational” as I said – I am not a doctor, nor do I have true insight on the severity of the injury or how the surgery went. That said, there are a few truths which inform my stance: There have been zero reports of any type of setback whatsoever; Irving is notoriously committed to his craft and has shared rehab videos via social media for months now; he is regularly seen on the practice floor (though not in five-on-five situations) putting in work; his return will come seven months after the high-end recovery period for an ACL injury, greatly maximizing his overall rehab. Irving’s intent to return when he is 150% better will only be aided by the extended time off.
While one may argue these rationales are anecdotal, there is proof-positive evidence that a given player has every reasonable expectation of a return to form. Here is a look at other NBA players that experienced an ACL injury, only to immediately return to their pre-injury level of play.
Zach Lavine
Pre-injury per game stats 2016-2017: 18.9 PTS / 3.4 REB / 3.0 AST
Post-injury per game stats 2018-2019: 23.7 PTS / 4.3 REB / 4.5 AST
Lavine was only 22-years old when he tore his left ACL, prematurely ending his 2016-2017 season. He returned the following year, but only played in 24 games, with significant absences book-ending that season. Using 2018-2019 as his true return shows he improved across the board. Lavine had youth on his side and his game was still developing, so some of the improvements are expected, but his ACL has not impacted him again to this point and his best years were post-injury.
Kawhi Leonard
Pre-injury per game stats 2020-2021: 24.8 PTS / 6.5 REB / 5.2 AST
Post-injury per game stats 2022-2023: 23.8 PTS / 6.5 REB / 3.9 AST
Leonard suffered his ACL injury at the age of 30 (technically just days shy), which cost him the remainder of that year’s Playoffs and entirety of the 2021-2022 season. His first season back saw him average a single point per game fewer than the season in which he was injured, the exact same rebounds per game, and a bit of a drop off in assists per game (though 2020-2021 was an outlier in its own right, as his career high in assists and the only season he averaged five or more).
Jamal Murray
Pre-injury per game stats 2020-2021: 21.2 PTS / 4.0 REB / 4.8 AST
Post-injury per game stats 2022-2023: 20.0 PTS / 4.0 REB / 6.2 AST
Murray suffered an ACL injury when he was 24 years old during the 2020-2021 NBA season. The injury caused him to miss the entirety of 2021-2022. Upon his return, Murray performed as though he did not miss a beat. He played in 65 total games that season and saw no appreciable change to his output, except for his assists, which actually increased by about 30%. The year he returned was also the year his Denver Nuggets won the NBA Championship.
Klay Thompson
Pre-injury per game stats 2018-2019: 21.5 PTS / 3.8 REB / 2.4 AST
Post-injury per game stats 2022-2023: 21.9 PTS / 4.1 REB / 2.4 AST
At 29 years old, Thompson suffered an ACL tear that cost him the following season in its entirety. Before he could spool back up, he then suffered an Achilles injury that kept him out yet another year-plus. Despite missing two-and-a-half seasons following two significant injuries, Thompson’s first full season back saw him play in 69 games with nearly identical stats as he put up before the injuries.
Closing thoughts
In fairness to the above examples, Irving is the oldest of the players discussed. However, I wanted to provide some range of examples in the assessment, including a player who experienced a near-unprecedented sequence of injuries to afford us a solid range. In all cases, the players were as good or better than they were pre-injury. For what it’s worth, a 30-year-old Kevin Durant suffered an Achilles injury (widely considered much more severe than an ACL injury) that cost him a season, and he too returned to almost identical form upon his return.
Modern treatments and rehab regimens are truly next level for high caliber athletes like those in the NBA. There you have the basis for my hopeful sense that when Irving takes the court again, it takes him no time to return to the player we knew prior to his ACL injury.
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