The White Sox are looking to bounce back from last night’s 12-2 thumping. Standing in their way is an old friend, Carlos Rodón, who has quietly put together another strong, albeit brief, season since returning from left elbow surgery.
First, though, the Sox need a solid outing from Anthony Kay. The southpaw’s season has been a roller coaster. April was rough, May was excellent, and June has gotten off to a rocky start. The veteran definitely has an intriguing profile. His average fastball velocity
of 95.5 mph ranks above average for a lefty, and his 71st-percentile chase rate shows he has the stuff to entice hitters into swinging at pitches outside the zone. The challenge has been converting those chases into outs.
Kay’s 5.65 xERA ranks among the bottom tier, and his strikeout numbers aren’t great. His 21.9% whiff rate and 17.6% strikeout rate both sit well below league average as well, meaning hitters are often making contact when they decide to swing. Against a Yankees’ lineup that demonstrated exactly how dangerous it can be when putting balls in play last night, that is not an ideal recipe.
The good news is that Kay’s 9.0% walk rate is manageable, and he generates ground balls at an above-average clip. If he can get Yankees hitters to chase while keeping the ball on the ground, the White Sox have a chance to keep this one close.
Here’s how the Yankees will line up against Kay.
On the other side stands Rodón, whose profile is almost the exact opposite. While Kay’s underlying metrics suggest a pitcher searching for answers, Rodón’s numbers paint the picture of a legitimate front-line starter. Opponents own only a .184 expected batting average against him, ranking in the 97th percentile. He still misses bats at an elite rate, striking out 26.4% of hitters while generating a 27.8% whiff rate.
The velocity isn’t quite what White Sox fans remember from his dominant 2021 campaign. Rodón now averages 94.1 mph rather than the upper-90s heat he once featured. Yet his fastball remains one of the game’s most effective weapons, ranking in the 87th percentile in run value.
If there is a crack in Rodón’s armor, it is his control. His 14.7% walk rate ranks among the worst in baseball, and that may provide the White Sox with their clearest path to victory. Chicago has done a better job this season of grinding out at-bats and forcing pitchers to work, but that approach will be tested tonight. If the Sox come out chasing early-count pitches and expanding the zone, Rodón’s swing-and-miss arsenal could make for a very long evening. If they stay patient, force him into hitter’s counts, and capitalize on the free passes he occasionally offers, they may be able to drive up his pitch count and expose the Yankees’ bullpen.
Here is the Sox lineup that skipper Will Venable hopes can grind out some offense against Rodón.
The matchup tonight feels like a battle of opposites: Kay needs hitters to chase, while Rodón needs hitters to swing. The team that best executes its offensive approach may very well decide who walks away with the W.
First pitch is at 6:05 p.m. CST. Tune in to the TV broadcast on CHSN or listen in at ESPN Chicago AM 1000.
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