The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills kick off Week 2 with a Thursday night matchup at the Bills’ new home, Highmark Stadium. Both teams won their opening games on their offense’s final possession and will look to start their season with a coveted 2-0 record.
“These guys are obviously a really good opponent,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said at his Monday press conference. “It’s opening night, out at their place Thursday night. It’ll be electric. It’s going to be a great atmosphere. We’ll be looking forward
to that; excellent opponent. This will be a big-time game here early in the year.”
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict what the Lions will do to earn a victory over the Bills in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
This week’s predictions preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1700 to win this year’s Super Bowl and 4.5-point underdogs in Week 2.
Bills base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 2 preview: Breaking down the Bills’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Prediction 1: Lots of Gibbs runs out of 11 personnel
One question the Lions had entering this season was whether they could improve their rushing efficiency. In Week 1, things looked much better, as Jahmyr Gibbs finished with 156 rushing yards (5.4 yards per carry) and a rushing success rate of 58.62% (fifth-highest in the NFL, per Sumer Sports).
Where things get interesting is when you look at the efficiency rate in different personnel settings, specifically 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers). In this popular personnel group, Gibbs ran the ball 13 times for 107 yards, and a success rate of 76.9%, best in the NFL amongst RBs with at least three carries in this grouping.
What was notable against the Saints was that they often matched personnel grouping by countering 11 with their nickel formation and presenting a lighter box to rush against. This matters because the Bills do the same thing, and at an even more dramatic rate.
Last week, when the Bills consistently matched the Texans’ 11 personnel with nickel, Houston’s backs saw success. Woody Marks ran the ball five times for 33 yards with a 60% success rate (sixth), while David Montgomery ran for 15 yards on four carries with a 50% success rate (12th). Both marks bested the team’s overall success rate for the game (46.9%).
Based on the Lions’ and Texans’ Week 1 success, it’s in Detroit’s best interest to keep the Bills in nickel as much as possible. Especially when you factor in Amon-Ra St. Brown…
Prediction 2: Another heavy dose of Amon-Ra St. Brown
The Bills defense has gone through significant change this offseason, switching from a 4-2 to a 3-4, and it’s going to take time to acclimate to the new scheme, which should play to the Lions’ advantage. Last week, Buffalo played match defense, deploying base personnel around 40% of the time, then splitting their 60% sub-package work between nickel (36%) and dime (24%) formations.
After losing Taron Johnson in free agency, the Bills signed Dee Alford to man the slot, and he should draw a lot of matchups against Amon-Ra St. Brown. Here’s an excerpt from NFLPro (NextGen) on Alford:
Dee Alford took over the slot for Buffalo in Week 1, playing 86.0% of snaps from slot, the role Taron Johnson held in 2025. Alford was targeted on 21.8% of his coverage snaps last season, the highest rate among cornerbacks (min. 300 coverage snaps) and allowed 1.5 yards per coverage snap (10th-most).
In Week 1, Alford allowed only two receptions for 23 yards on four targets, but the Bills defense as a whole struggled when in nickel, allowing an EPA of 0.14 (26th best in the NFL) and a success rate of 53.8% (28th).
St. Brown is coming off a Week 1 performance in which he caught 10 of his 14 targets and found the end zone twice, but even that wasn’t as impressive as his 12-catch, 193-yard, touchdown performance the last time he played the Bills.
“It’s the consistency of what he does, the details,” Campbell said of his All-Pro wide receiver. “And more importantly, he’s a pit bull. The ball’s in the air; it’s his ball. And there’s a competitiveness and a willpower that comes with that, and he’s going to make that play.”
Prediction 3: Lions blitz to offset Bills’ aggressive offense
“Ultimately, I don’t care what they throw at us; the quarterback is the key to all of this. And if we don’t make him go the long hard way every time, it can get very difficult.” — Dan Campbell on Bills QB Josh Allen.
Josh Allen can do it all. He can throw to every level of the field, is comfortable in the pocket, understands the offensive system, and is a threat to pull the ball and run at any time. In Week 1 against the Texans’ elite defense, he completed 20-of-29 passing attempts for 334 yards and two passing touchdowns, for a 130.5 passer rating. He also ran the ball six times for 23 yards and two more touchdowns.
The Lions will need to find ways to disrupt Allen’s tempo and aggressiveness to slow the Bills offense. Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has made an effort to disguise their intentions on defense this year, and he’ll need to be sharp and creative against Allen. One of the crafty ways he’ll likely try to confuse Allen is by blitzing his defensive backs.
Roger McCreary had a solid Week 1, generating four pressures (all under 2.5 seconds per NFL Pro), but the Lions will return their preferred nickel starter in Week 2: Christian Izien. The Lions quickly signed Izien in free agency and immediately inserted him into the starting lineup because of his aggressive nature. While Izien is returning from injury, he was very close to playing in Week 1, and it appeared the Lions elected not to push him into game action because they wanted him 100% ready for this specific game.
Look for Izien to be a key defensive catalyst in disrupting Allen.
Prediction 4: Lions take advantage of turnover opportunities
“If a mistake is made, we have to capitalize. We have to. We have to make that play.” — Campbell earlier in the week.
While Campbell didn’t specifically reference the Bills’ three potential turnovers on the final drive (!) of Week 1, I got the impression that is what he was referencing when he made the above statement.
Down one point with about six-and-a-half minutes remaining in regulation, Allen fumbled on the first play of the drive, but Buffalo recovered and maintained possession. Eight plays later, Texans corner Derek Stingley punched the ball away from Bills running back James Cook, but again, the Bills were able to recover. Five plays later, Allen threw a deep pass into the end zone, right into the hands of Texans corner Kamari Lassiter, but he couldn’t secure the interception as he awkwardly adjusted to the ball and fell to the ground. The next play, Allen hit Bills wide receiver Joshua Palmer for a 34-yard touchdown that became the winning score.
If the Texans capitalize on any of those three turnover-worthy plays, they would’ve had a real chance to put the game away and secure a victory.
The Lions capitalized on three turnover opportunities in Week 1, as DJ Wonnum recovered a punch-out fumble from Roger McCreary, while Chuck Clark and Derrick Barnes each made an interception. Turnovers tend to come in bunches, and they’ll need to stay opportunistic in this game.
