It’s been a few short days since the Broncos pulled out a win over a hapless Chargers team, and in less than 24 hours, they will be trying to do it again.
Except this time, the opponent is the defending Super Bowl champs with its revitalized journeyman quarterback throwing to last season’s Offensive Player of the Year. Thankfully, the Seahawks no longer carry their Super Bowl MVP running back, Kenneth Walker III, on the roster, but the defensive challenge remains high.
Both teams are 3-2, but Denver
enters the home matchup with a lot of questions about its offense and defense. And here to help us answer them before kickoff is veteran UFGer, OrangeAndBlueFan, who absolutely nails it on the first question.
Mile High, you better be loud because this game could come down to the real “12th Man” fans pulling out the dub for the Throwback Broncos (my fave)!
Week 6: Seahawks at Broncos on TNF
MHR – This week’s matchup has the Broncos coming off a fortunate win against a team in shambles. How in the world does Denver beat Seattle?
OrangeAndBlueFan: It’s a short week against the defending champs. This isn’t a week to reasonably expect the Broncos to fix much of anything from a scheme standpoint. They win the same way they beat Jacksonville and the Rams (and were right there with a chance to do against the 49ers, but failed). The defense plays well enough to prevent the game from getting out of hand early, and we all sit around and wait for the three second half drives that look like the 2013 Broncos out of the blue. Then take our heart medication and spend the next 10 days talking about how terrible our 4-2 team is.
The other possibility is the issue with Bo is more mental than physical. He’s in his head. He’s thinking about too much instead of just playing instinctually. I think playing a Thursday night game might actually help him. Sean Payton has said before that, for Thursday games, you have to install a simplified game plan because of the lack of prep time. I think that helps someone who is stuck in their head and struggling as a result, and I think with a simplified game plan we might actually see a competent NFL offensive operation Thursday night.
MHR – Third down conversions were a gigantic issue in the Chargers game, converting just once on 12 third-down tries. Is this a fixable problem? How do we do it – scheme, protection, better play calls?
OrangeAndBlueFan: Someone correct me if I’m wrong, I don’t have stats to back this up, but I feel like third down conversions have been an issue for 2.5 seasons now. Aren’t we leading the league in three-and-outs again this year (or at least very close)? I’m firmly in the camp that third down isn’t actually the problem, first down is. The Broncos are abysmal on first down. I think the solution is to gain more than two yards on first down. But it’s not like the Broncos don’t know this and aren’t trying. Dobbins looks broken, and as valuable as Harvey is as a pass catcher, he’s not a good between the tackles runner. Maybe the answer is Jonah Coleman, which doesn’t help us this week. Maybe the answer is George Paton picking up the phone – Tyler Allgeier, perhaps (he’s someone I was hoping we’d target in free agency)? Also doesn’t help us this week. Maybe it’s more designed runs for Bo. Maybe it’s more quick, short passes. I honestly don’t know, but something needs to change on first down, which will have a trickle down effect to third down.
MHR – Denver’s “expected points added” metric ranks among the worst in the NFL at 24, and while Wil Lutz provided 12 of the 23 points last week, he also missed a 42-yarder. What is going on with this offense; they switched play callers and got an early touchdown and then still stalled?
OrangeAndBlueFan: I would caution against putting too much stock in metrics like “expected points added.” This, along with many other “advanced” or “next gen” stats, is relatively new to football, and most of them are actually unproven yet, in terms of if they reliably predict success or failure (we’ve all heard the phrase “correlation doesn’t equal causation.” right? It takes a long time for a new analytic to prove that it is predictive and not just correlative).
That point aside, yes, it’s obvious to anyone with a functioning brain that the Broncos offense is not good. I never thought the issue was playcalling. I think that was just an easy lever for Sean Payton to pull to try to turn things around, so he did. The problem is we have a quarterback who isn’t seeing the field and is failing to step up into clean pockets and deliver the football to wide open receivers down the field, and we have a virtually non-existent running game. In the wise words of Pepper Brooks, “that’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.”
Are these problems fixable? Yes, I believe they are. But I wouldn’t count on that in a Thursday night game with no practice and prep time during the week
And you mentioned Lutz – I am quite concerned with how shaky he’s looked so far, with the 42 yarder in L.A. being a pretty egregious miss. 50+ yard misses can be forgiven (as long as you also make some, which Lutz hasn’t yet this year, I don’t believe), but you start missing chip shots and your leash before we’re trying out other kickers at Wednesday practice is going to get a whole lot shorter.
MHR – The Broncos’ O-line has been good in spurts but often does not seem ready or able to protect Bo. How does this offensive line win in the trenches against Seattle’s front four?OrangeAndBlueFan: I don’t care how good an offensive line is, when your opponent knows you are passing the ball, it’s going to be difficult to stop their pass rush. If we’re not able to gain more yards on first down, I’d expect to see more of the heavy packages we started to see the last two games. I don’t love that that typically means we’re only sending two receivers out on routes, but if that’s what is needed to give Bo the confidence to climb a pocket and throw the ball with confidence, that’s ok. When Bo plays with sound mechanics and fundamentals, I fully trust him to deliver accurate footballs into tight windows. And if the passing windows aren’t there, but Bo actually climbs the pocket, that opens up the middle of the field for him to run, which is where he is truly dangerous.
MHR – The run game was showing more promise (stop me if you have heard this before) with Jonah Coleman, but since his injury it has once again seemed…lackluster. While Coleman is on IR, do you think RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins can carry this rushing attack? Can it be something that opponents actually have to put resources into defending? Why is our run game always so mediocre?
OrangeAndBlueFan: Let me stop you, I’ve heard this before! Lol. No, I don’t think Harvey and Dobbins can carry the run game. Harvey has never been a good inside runner, and Dobbins is either injured or not very good anymore. The run game was actually good on a per carry basis last year before Dobbins got injured, but Payton didn’t call enough run plays. This year it seems like we’re doing a little better in calling more run plays, but the team isn’t able to execute them at a high level.
No, if I was Seattle, I would do the same thing every other team has done against Denver. Sit back in two high safety and force the Broncos to have success running the ball, all along knowing that they can’t. If I’m the Broncos, I’d maybe try a few zone read concepts, but tell Bo to keep the ball. I have noticed numerous times this year that Bo frequently makes the wrong read on the zone read plays. He very rarely keeps the ball himself, and very often should.
MHR – The offseason addition of Jaylen Waddle was supposed to be a huge spark for our offense, and it has barely been a flicker. Waddle was visibly frustrated on the field last week over a missed third down conversion on a run, but he hasn’t been exactly contributing to an improved offense. What do you make of the low number of throws to Waddle and Courtland Sutton – our WR1 and 2 – and where is the blame…on Bo Nix? On the play calls? On the receivers for drops?
OrangeAndBlueFan: There’s no way of knowing for sure without being at Dove Valley during the week and knowing the exact scheme and play designs, but I think this is primarily on Bo. He’s not seeing the field well and is straight up failing to throw the ball to open guys down the field. That said, Waddle certainly has no room to point fingers at other people. He’s been good for a drop per game, and often on what would have been an explosive play, too. He could probably have 5 more catches for 120 more yards on the season if he caught everything that hit him in the hands. And that’s not to mention the snowball effect of making those catches – continuing a drive after an explosive play, rather than punting back to the other team after another 3 and out. We might even be having a completely different conversation about Bo if Waddle didn’t have bricks for hands. The crazy thing about football, from an analysis standpoint, is that everything is always based on small sample sizes. It doesn’t take a huge number of plays going differently to completely change your analysis of a player’s performance, and I think Waddle’s drops this year have been a little overlooked in how much they’ve likely contributed to Bo’s story so far this season.
I have no idea what is going on with Court. It was great to see him get the touchdown Sunday in L.A., because he’s been invisible. I haven’t noticed him ever getting open, which is surprising considering he isn’t being covered by the opponent’s top DB anymore. I wouldn’t mind Payton calling a few plays on Thursday to just simply force feed Sutton the ball. Not just for Sutton, but also for Bo. Court has been Bo’s security blanket for the first two years of his career. You want to get a professional athlete out of a slump? Start by putting him in comfortable, familiar situations. Sean Payton has mountains of plays that are designed to scheme receivers open. Call a series of those plays that is designed to get Sutton open, and tell Bo to step up into the pocket and throw it out there where #14 can catch it, and trust him to do his job. Call some of those back shoulder throws down the left sideline that they were so good at connecting on last year. Call some of those 20 yard in-cutting routes they were so good at connecting on Bo’s rookie season. I really think Sutton is the key to getting things turned around for Bo.
MHR – We’ve talked about Denver’s running backs and wide receivers, so against this dominant and fast Front 7 that has one of the better win rates on the pass rush and ranks near the top on takeaways, what kind of offensive scheme can the Broncos put together to mitigate Seattle’s strengths and minimize their own offensive weaknesses?
OrangeAndBlueFan: I don’t know enough about the X’s and O’s of football to give a great answer to this question – maybe this is a good one to call on Broncos Country to chime in in the comments. What I will keep going back to is we need to find a way to generate more positive yards specifically on first down. Whether that’s more shallow slants or mesh routes, zone reads with Bo using his legs instead of always handing it off, or jumbo packages to get an extra blocker in the run game. I’m not really an expert here and don’t know what would be most likely to work. But also, it’s a Thursday game, so realistically I’m not sure we are going to see anything different. I really think the defense is just going to have to keep it close until Bo morphs into Tom Brady in the 4th quarter.
MHR – Fans and analysts have both been souring on Bo Nix the last few weeks. Are you concerned about the QB not being as good as we hoped/assumed or is it just a matter of the still young QB having to play a lot of tough defenses out of the gate this season?
OrangeAndBlueFan: I understand the angst with Bo. He was looking like a good NFL QB by the end of last season, and our hope was that he would come into year 3 and grow from there. It hasn’t worked out that way, and the offense is tough to watch. But I’m not ready to bail on Bo yet. His basic stats (attempts, yards and touchdowns) through 5 games last year weren’t that much better than they are through 5 games this year, and he’s played against much tougher defenses this year, with perhaps the toughest test still to come Thursday. I need to see him get to play the likes of Arizona, Carolina and Miami before I panic and start talking about Bo not being the Broncos long-term QB. Until it still looks like this against teams of that caliber, I’m still ridin’ with Bo. In the infamous words of Terrell Owens, that’s my Quarterback!
And besides, what are the alternatives? We’re still 3-2 against tough competition, with a very favorable schedule on the horizon. This is very likely going to be a playoff team with a late draft pick, so no better option at QB there. There aren’t going to be great free agents at the QB position this offseason. And does Broncos Country really have the appetite for another Russell Wilson-like trade? It’s gotta be Bo. He’s gotta improve. And with what I expect will be a simplified game plan on Thursday, followed by a much easier slate of opponents, I think he will.
Could this also be a whole lot of hope, without much evidence, because the notion of what happens if Bo isn’t “him” is nauseating to think about? Sure, also possible. We’re just fans. We don’t control any of this. So I’m absolutely going to continue burying my head in the sand as long as the Broncos continue finding ways to win ugly!
All of this said, there is a combination of two stats that definitely have my attention. Bo ranks 31st in the NFL in completion percentage AND ranks 33rd in average depth of target. Those are stats that should be inversely correlated. To be the worst in the league at both is definitely concerning, and something that could quickly change my mind about Bo if at least one of those numbers doesn’t improve significantly in pretty short order.
MHR – The Broncos will still be missing Pat Surtain II and now Talanoa Hufanga on Thursday. How do the Broncos defensive backs slow Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, who gained over 100 yards on the Niners defense last week?
OrangeAndBlueFan: I think most people’s first instinct would be to say heavy zone defense. I really don’t like that idea. Our defense is terrible in zone, JSN will find the holes, and might run all the way back to Seattle. Honestly, I think the answer might be to sacrifice KAD to the man coverage gods, concede that JSN is going to have a monster game, and absolutely shut everything else the f down. If you can keep JSN to 150 yards and two scores, and make the rest of their offense look like a high school JV team, the Broncos win easily. If you can keep JSN to 200 yards and 3 scores, while making the rest of their offense look like a high school JV team, the Broncos still have a good chance to win. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not an X’s and O’s expert here, so this might be an absurd idea, too. My issue is that I just don’t see the defense having an answer for JSN without PS2 and Hufanga out there, so why use multiple resources trying and failing, when those resources could be used to completely stonewall everything else and make Seattle totally one dimensional.
MHR – In the Seahawks loss to the Niners last week, Sam Darnold threw one touchdown but also two interceptions and only 195 yards passing overall while kicker Jake Meyers was responsible for 12 of Seattle’s points. What can the Broncos’ defense learn from the Niners’ scheme against the Seahawks?
OrangeAndBlueFan: Related to my last answer, Seattle’s offense is very one-dimensional and will turn the ball over. Instead of using resources on trying to stop the one explosive weapon they do have, concede that he’s going to get his, and focus our efforts on keeping them one-dimensional. The Broncos have very clearly made generating turnovers a priority this year, and are having some success there. I expect to see a high effort in attacking the football on defense Thursday. The more time JSN spends sitting on the bench, the better the Broncos chances of winning. The most effective way to maximize JSN’s bench time is to turn the ball over.
On the other side of things, Seattle’s defense is definitely good, but they aren’t perfect. Let’s not forget they gave up 33 points to a backup QB in a loss to Washington just a few weeks ago. They are get-able. It all comes down to Bo being able to settle his feet down (and likely settle his mind down) and step up into clean pockets so he can deliver accurate throws down field. At the end of the day, I firmly believe that is what will determine the outcome of this game.
MHR – The Broncos defense has seemed slow to bring effective pressure this season but it has been better at getting takeaways. Can Nik Bonitto, Que Robinson, Jonah Elliss and the edge group get home often enough to make Darnold make mistakes the defense can capitalize on? What’s the key?
OrangeAndBlueFan: I’d love to see more from Ellis and Bonitto, but Zack Allen is the key. Darnold is not a mobile QB, but he is good at navigating within the pocket. Interior pressure is kryptonite for a QB like Darnold. This could also be a good game for VJ to show off his creative chops with a lot of stunts designed to open pass rushing lanes for Strnad or McMillan to get to Darnold. I don’t think the edge rushers need to great for the pass rush to be effective against a QB like Sam Darnold….. But it sure would be nice to see Bonitto start rolling, and for Ellis to…. well….. do anything at all (Ellis has been one of the bigger disappointments on the defensive side of the ball this year, in my opinion).
MHR – Which ONE player on offense and ONE player on defense has to be an MVP on Sunday for the Jets to win? Which one offensive and defensive player for the Broncos are you
OrangeAndBlueFan: For the Seahawks, it’s Holani (or whoever their main RB ends up being). If they can establish a run game against us, game over. Defensively for Seattle, I don’t know enough individual players to name one, but it’s their pass rush. The Broncos can win if Bo can get his feet and his mind right and calmly step up into the pocket. If they can prevent him from doing that, the Broncos could be in for a long night.
For Denver, offense is easy. It’s Bo. He will almost single-handedly determine who wins this game. On defense, I’m still going to stick with Zack Allen. I think there’s a case for the linebackers getting turnovers, but I’m going with Allen. Consistent interior pressure in the pocket could totally wreck the game for Seattle.
Predictions
Stats for BO NIX? 1 win, and I’ll leave it at that!
Stats for SAM DARNOLD? 21 of 31 for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns. 5 sacks. 2 game-altering fumbles.
Stats for each running back? Dobbins: 14 carries for 48 yards and one touchdown. Harvey: 3 carries for 11 yards, 6 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown. Badie: 2 carries for 7 yards, 2 receptions for 13 yards. Nix: 3 carries for 22 yards.
Stats for each receiver/TE? Waddle: 7 catches for 96 yards. Sutton: 6 catches for 59 yards. Franklin: 3 catches for 18 yards. Mims: 1 catch for 12 yards. Engram: 2 catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. Trautman/Other: 2 catches for 14 yards. So, to give a real answer for Bo’s stats above, let’s just add it up: 29 completions (on let’s say 43 attempts) for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. No turnovers.
Longest FG from Lutz this week? 49
Number of sacks to Sam Darnold? 5
Number of sacks to Bo Nix? 1
Who gets the first sack of the game for the Broncos? 99, all day!
Who gets the most sacks? I think Allen gets 2
Who gets a pick-six? I think we force 2 or 3 fumbles, but no picks.
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Seahawks D? 0/0/0
How many INTs/FF/FR for the Broncos D? 0/3/2
How many penalties between the two teams? 17
Final Score? I’m not going to just give the score, I’m going to predict how this plays out:
The state of the offense through 5 games doesn’t give me a ton of confidence that the Broncos will win this game. That said, I also don’t feel a lot of confidence picking a team that has to travel on a short week to altitude to play a prime time game at Mile High. But this isn’t asking for confidence, it’s asking for a prediction. I think a simplified short week game plan helps Bo get out of his own way, and things look better offensively in the first half.
Defensively, however, the Broncos have no answer for JSN with PS2 and Hufanga out, and Smith-Njigba goes for over 175 yards and 3 scores in the first three quarters of the game. Despite the Broncos offense finally looking competent, Seattle takes a 24 – 17 lead into the 4th quarter…….
And then, 4th quarter Bo shows up, the effects of traveling to altitude on a short week begin to take its toll on the Seahawks, and Mile High Magic does what it does best (there’s no atmosphere in sports quite like the 4th quarter of a prime time game at Mile High). Broncos win the 4th quarter 10 – 0, to win the game 27 – 24 and improve to 4-2, before getting to face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL over the remainder of the season. Bo plays well enough to back people away from the ledge, and we enter the mini-bye talking about the possibility of home games in January instead of whether or not we have a franchise QB.
Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But what fun is being a fan if you can’t dream about what could be? (*editor’s note: I love this!)
The Favorites
Favorite Broncos win ever with John Elway? I’m not originally from Colorado and didn’t become a Broncos fan until after Elway retired. I’ll go with the Super Bowl win over the Packers. I never was a Brett Favre fan, and I always appreciated Elway and wanted to see him get a ring. I remember watching that game and rooting for Denver.
Favorite Broncos game ever with Peyton Manning? SB50, even though PFM was just along for the ride at that point in his career. Nothing better than an all-time great winning a Super Bowl in the last game of his career.
Favorite Broncos game ever with any other QB? 2005 (January 2006) divisional round win over New England (see details below)
Team you love to beat the most in the AFC? Kansas City
Coach you despise most in the NFL? Nick Siriani (not sure if spelling is correct)
Team you hate to lose to the most in the AFC? Pittsburgh, outside of the division anyway
NFC team you could cheer for in the Super Bowl? New Orleans, Detroit, L.A., San Francisco. And yes, Dallas (see below). Wow, there are a lot of NFC teams I lowkey like.
NFC team you’d want to face more than any other in the Super Bowl? I want Thursday to be a Super Bowl preview. I want revenge on Seattle.
Toughest game remaining on the schedule? Buffalo
Favorite Broncos player on your current roster? PS2
Favorite new guy/rookie on the team? Waddle should be the easy answer at this point, but it hasn’t panned out that way so far. So I’ll say Coleman by default.
Food/Snack you have to eat on game day? Mostly copied and pasted from last year: I have season tickets with a friend and we tailgate for a few hours before every home game. We alternate weeks cooking, and do it up right! So it isn’t the same every week, but it’s ALWAYS good eats! This is only our fifth year with tickets, but trying to one-up the previous week with our tailgate food has quickly become a tradition!
Favorite game analyst/commentator? Greg Olsen or J.J. Watt
How did you become a Broncos fan?
(Copied and pasted from last year):
I was an adult before I became a Broncos fan addict. I was born in New Orleans and grew up in Dallas during the Cowboys 90’s dynasty. So I was a Cowboys fan as a kid, and the Saints were my #2. I ended up in Denver for college in 1999, but I was playing on a golf scholarship so my Sundays were always spent either practicing or traveling to tournaments, so I didn’t really follow football for those 4 years.
After college, I stayed in Colorado and started following football again, but had lost any feeling of loyalty to the teams I grew up rooting for. Colorado was the first place I lived that really felt like home to me, so it felt really natural to start rooting for the Broncos. By the time I attended my first ever NFL game in person – the 2005 playoffs (January 2006) win over the Patriots – I was already a Broncos fan, but that game was basically a life changing experience, and I’ve never looked back since.
Getting to be live in that environment for Champ’s 100 yard pick 6 on Brady was the most electric, jaw on the ground, hair standing up on the back of my neck moment I’ve ever experienced watching sports.
