Eight teams remain in the NFL Playoffs. In four games over the next two days that number will be cut in half. Here are my picks for day one of the Divisional Playoffs.
6. Buffalo Bills (13-5) at 1. Denver Broncos (14-3); 4:30 pm Eastern; CBS
I can’t think of many other instances where I thought a game between the sixth seed and the top seed in a conference was a genuine toss up. This game feels like one, though. The Broncos grinded their way through a soft schedule to get the one seed in the AFC. A number
of metrics suggest that Buffalo played at a higher level during the regular season, though. Still, the Broncos have a week of rest and are at home.
It’s tough to pick against Josh Allen after his incredible performance in the Wild Card round. I thought the Jaguars defense played really well. They surrendered nothing easy and forced Allen to execute at a high level to get anything. Allen did again and again.
If this game comes down to the quarterbacks as many toss ups ultimately do, I’d rather have Allen than Bo Nix.
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
6. San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at 1. Seattle Seahawks (14-3); 8:00 pm; FOX
A great rivalry is renewed in Saturday’s nightcap.
In the Playoffs I like to consider which head coach-quarterback duo I trust more. Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy already have a trip to the Super Bowl under the belt. Mike McDonald and Sam Darnold have a combined one Playoff game, a game Darnold started a year ago for the Vikings that resulted in an ugly blowout loss. Darnold’s play was poor in that game.
Even so, I was ready to pick the Seahawks. There were too many other factors favoring them. The Niners are shorthanded due to key injuries. The Seahawks defense has been phenomenal all season long, and Seattle is one of the best homefield advantages in the league.
That was up until questions started popping up about Darnold’s health. Something weird is going on here.
Even if Darnold does play it sounds like he’s going to be compromised, and he missed all of the prep work leading up to the game. That’s enough for me to change my prediction.
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Current Playoff Prediction Record: 4-2
