Boy, do Yankees fans not have the stomach for Devin Williams. Is he a good idea for the Giants? Jeff Passan seems to think so. And earlier today, Jon Morosi — who has probably lost his credibility after
his reporting on Shohei Ohtani — fueled rumors that the San Francisco Giants have interest in this (former?) stud closer.
In 2023, Devin Williams was named to the National League All-Star Team to represent the Milwaukee Brewers on the basis of a stellar line of 20 saves (25 opportunities) in 33.1 IP, 45 K, 18 BB, 3 HR, a 1.89 ERA and 2.48 FIP. He finished that season 36 saves in 40 chances, 87 K to 28 BB and just 4 HR in 58.2 IP with a 1.53 ERA and 2.66 FIP and picked up a couple of MVP votes (19th out of 23). This made him worth 1.8 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (2.6 on Baseball Reference). In 2024, he missed most of the season with a pair of fractured vertebra. When he returned, though, he racked up 14 saves in 21.2 IP and struck out 38 while walking only 11. He sported a 1.25 ERA and 2.06 in a limited sample, and that offseason the Brewers traded him to the Yankees.
That’s where the profile gets dicey. Does having a tough year for the Yankees make a free agent a bad option for other teams? Gosh, I’d hope not. Also, a tiny wade into the pool of Williams’ profile doesn’t indicate a massive fall off. He’s a good player and was good enough in New York.
Dodger fan and Baseball Savant editor Mike Petriello wrote a really strong piece today about how his 4.79 ERA in 2025 doesn’t tell the full story about his season. He arrives at this initial conclusion:
The way Williams pitched this year (attempting to strip out the effects of ballpark, defense and luck) tells the story of a pitcher who really earned an ERA closer to 3, not nearly 5.
And then provides this whopper of a detail that’s sort of the whole issue with being a relief pitcher:
- Williams inherited six runners when he entered. He allowed zero to score.
- Williams left 10 runners on when departing. The next relievers allowed seven to score.
It’s still the case that Williams allowed more runs were charged to his record this season (37 overall, 33 earned) than in any other season of his career. Indeed, in the 235.2 innings and 241 games he’d pitched prior to arriving in New York, he’d allowed just 48 earned runs and 63 overall. He’s allowed 100 for his career now, so the Yankees season accounts for 37% of his career runs allowed total. Yikes.
When we’re talking about relievers, we are talking about smaller things like this. The sample size being small is simply a wrinkle in the analysis. That’s why I tend to prefer looking at something like FIP or xFIP versus ERA, which is what Petriello is getting at in his analysis. Williams’ 4.79 ERA obscures a 2.68 FIP, just 0.02 points off his last All-Star season of 2023. He’s a strikeout machine who that doesn’t give up home runs — just 20 home runs allowed in his entire career! That’s a week of work for Carson Seymour — and who issues walks more strategically than chaotically.
He dominates with a changeup-fastball combo in the style of a Trevor Hoffman. Yes, that average four-seam fastball velocity has declined over the years, but let’s check see that visualized just to get a sense on if that’s meaningful for at least the next couple of years:
2019: 96.2 mph
2020: 96.5 mph
2021: 95.4 mph
2022: 93.9 mph
2023: 94.2 mph
2024: 94.7 mph
2025: 94.1 mph
I see a pitcher who has been settled into a lower velocity for several years now and is pitching well because of sequencing and command of the strike zone. He gets a lot of swing and miss, chase, and groundballs. He’s projected to be a great closer for at least the next couple of seasons, I’d think.
His 2023 and 2025 seasons are similar enough that it should make you reconsider complaints emanating from the Yankees side of the equation:
2023: 58.2 IP 87 K (37.6 K%) 28 BB (12.1 BB%), 4.0 H/9, 4 HR, 1.53 ERA, 2.66 FIP, +1.8 fWAR, +2.6 rWAR
2025: 62.0 IP 90 K (34.7 K%), 25 BB (9.7 BB%), 6.5 H/9, 5 HR, 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, +1.4 fWAR, -0.3 rWAR
Would he be a great fit on the Giants? Absolutely. The Giants need all the help they can get. Unfortunately, spending $16+ million a year on a closer would not seem to be within the team’s budget, currently or even if ownership greenlights an increase. I talked about this a week and a half ago when assessing MLB Trade Rumors’ predictions for which free agents might come to the Giants this offseason: “they’ve got to spread the money around and spending money on the bullpen is closer to luxury than necessity.”
So, why has this rumor manifested? Williams doesn’t even come up in Shayna Rubin’s piece that just went up on the Chronicle which speculates on which direction the team might take to firm up their soft spots. This does appear to have started as idle speculation based on a general knowledge of the Giants’ needs.
Giants GM Zack Minasian had nothing to do with the Brewers’ drafts when he was with the organization, either; and, Buster Posey only faced him once. Williams did strike him out, but something tells me that a strikeout looking from August 30, 2021 has stayed in his mind all these years.
On the other hand…
At first, I doubted that there was a Missouri connection between Devin Williams and Tony Vitello, even though they were both born in St. Louis. Vitello’s alma mater is the Jesuit private school while Williams played for the public school 12 miles north. Williams was drafted out of high school in 2013 when Vitello was an assistant at Texas Christian University. However, Jon Morosi was adamant:
I’ve been able to ascertain that the Tigers — and yes, Tony Vitello’s San Francisco Giants — have some interest in Devin Williams as well.
So… I can see why this story has legs. On the other hand, is this a situation where Morosi simply asked Vitello if he’d be interested in a fellow Missourian/fellow St. Louiser? I think that’s likely. After all, it seems really unlikely that the Giants would simply sign a closer and call it an offseason.
(nervous chuckling) They’ve-they’ve-they’ve never done that before, r-r-r-right?
Well, let’s look at that 2016-2017 offseason, when they signed Mark Melancon, the last time the team spent big on a closer (and who is still being paid in deferrals this offseason!).
Mark Melancon (CL), 4 years/$62 million
Nick Hundley (C), 1 year/$2 million
Gordon Beckham (IF), MiLB/$2 million in majors
David Hernandez (RHP), MiLB/$1 million in majors
Aaron Hill (3B), MiLB/$0.75 million in majors
Ah! Well then. No wonder Buster Posey brought back Bobby Evans. They need an experienced person to guide the franchise through another runthrough of 2016-2018. Okay, okay. That’s mean. Maybe it wouldn’t be so bad. The lineup isn’t a shambles — on paper, anyway — and maybe Buster & Zack will have better luck at finding cheaper options to build up depth.
The only question left is whether or not Devin Williams would sign with the Giants, a team that will need a dozen or more things to go right to put them in a position to halfway compete for the third Wild Card spot. The Giants’ defense wasn’t much better than the Yankees’ (-10.8 Defensive Runs Above Average to -12.4), but we know that’s largely because of Patrick Bailey. Tony Vitello and staff will need to perform a miracle or three with the outfield defense. Maybe they will! In any case, if the Giants offer Williams the most money, he’ll take it; but, if they do that, I think it should still be treated as a headscratcher.
