The Raiders are bad, maybe worse then bad, actually year they are worse then bad. Las Vegas was dismantled by the Chiefs 31-0 handing Andy Reid his first ever shutout as the Chiefs head coach. Las Vegas didn’t
break 100 yards of total offense, their punter had 2x the number of punts as they had first downs. The Chiefs benched their starters for the entire 4th quarter, and they went into victory formation with 2:36 left while Las Vegas held 3 timeouts. It has to be better than 2024 though right, right? No. The 2025 Raiders have lost by 17 (Commanders), 34 (Colts), and 31 (Chiefs). The 2024 Raiders three largest losses were 15 (Dolphins/Bucs), 17 (Bengals), and 19 (Steelers). They scored 10 or more points in all but 1 game with the 2025 Raiders logging 3 such games in only 7 total games.
The 2024 Las Vegas Raiders held a 2-5 record through the same point last season before going to end the year at 4-13, the Raiders are also on pace to finish 4-13 though ESPN’s FPI has them a projected 3-14 which would be the Raiders worse finish in over a decade. Record aside, surely the Raiders are doing better, well they slightly are. The 2024 Raiders had a -125 point differential, the 2025 Raiders are on pace to have a -187 point differential after their 31-0 blowout. Surely, things get better in terms of offensive and defensive rankings, they slightly are. The 2024 Raiders ranked 29th on offense and 26th on defense, in 2025 the Raiders now rank 27th on offense and 24th on defense (were 23rd on offense and 18th defensively prior to this week). When you dive into the actual metrics, things do not look great however.
Offense:
The 2024 Raiders logged 30 offensive turnovers, the 2025 Raiders are on pace to turn the ball over 33 times this year. The Raiders allowed 50 sacks in 2024, and are on pace to allow 52 in 2025. They punted 67 times in 2024, and after today’s 6 punts are on pace to punt 65 times this season so there’s a slight improvement, though not necessarily due to 3 more projected turnovers. Looking past these metrics, the Raiders Avg/Plays per drive is on pace to fall from 5.8 in 2024 to 5.4 in 2025, on those drives they are projected to fall again from 26.9 yds/drive to 24.1 yds/drive which would be the lowest in the NFL in the last two seasons. They are projected to throw 18 passing TD compared to 19 in 2025 and rush for 6 touchdowns compared to 10 in 2025. The offensive line is currently holding a 21.5% pressure rate, which is higher than the Raiders 19.7% pressure rate in 2024. Their offensive EPA/play is at -0.278 below the 2024 Raiders -0.253 and their success rate of 47% is lower than the 2024 Raiders 52%. In all, the Raiders offensive regression could be attributed to the loss of Brock Bowers, however implementing a top 5 pick at runningback and failing to have him carry the ball more than 6 times against the NFL’s 27th ranked run defense is malpractice. The Chiefs allowed nearly 8 YPC on first quarter rushing attempts, and the Raiders ran the ball once. The Raiders selected Jack Bech in the 2nd round and Dont’e Thornton in the 4th round, after originally benching Thornton for Bech both played due to the absence of Jakobi Meyers with Bech logging 2 receptions for 13 yards and Thornton having his 3 receptions for 41 yards all brought back by pointless offensive line penalties. Speaking of penalite,s the Raiders are projected to see an increase of their 121 penalties in 2024 to 135 in 2025. Lastly, the Raiders 34.8% 3rd down conversion rate in 2024, is projected to fall to 32.9% in 2025.
Defense:
As mentioned the Raiders defensive unit is projected to rise, albeit ever so slightly, though looking at the numbers they are going to be getting worse. A worse defense isn’t a surprise when replacing Trevon Moehrig, Nate Hobbs, Robert Spillane, and K’Lavon Chaisson with Kyu Blu Kelly, Tristin McCollum, Devin White, Germaine Pratt (who then is replaced with Elandon Roberts), and Charles Snowden. The 2024 Raiders logged 13 turnovers, and the 2025 Raiders should see some improvement with a projected 21 turnovers this season. They logged 38 sacks in 2024 and are on pace to log 35 in 2025 though that number could be significantly lower if the knee and back injuries sustained by Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby and DT Adam Butler are worse then initial look. In terms of efficiency, the Raiders run defense is currently allowing -0.285 EPA/play an extreme improvement from the 0.028 EPA/play in 2024. Their pass coverage EPA however is projected to fall from 0.218 EPA/play in 2024 to 0.379 in 2025. Circling back to the pass rush, the Raiders are projected to see their 21.2% pressure rate rise slightly to 22.8% though again depending on Butler and Crosby as well. The Raiders are projected to increase their missed tackle total of 156 to 167 this season and see a dip in QB hits from 86 to 74. They are projected a severe rise in TFL’s from 83 to 114 though the 3rd down conversion rate of 39.8% in 2024 is on pace to rise to 47.8% in 2025 which would be among the 5 worst rates of a defense in the last three seasons, though they have company with another Raiders defense. The Raiders defense has been carved up all season, it’s a consistent unit that is running north of 55% cover 3 and they struggle to cover the flats allowing a near 150.0 QBR in those situations. When targeted between the numbers the Raiders have yet to log an interception, and have allowed a 143.8 QBR in those situations.
Just of note as well, the Raiders have missed 21 special teams tackles, on pace for 51 missed tackles. The 2024 Raiders missed 19… the entire season. Those 51 missed tackles would be the most ever recorded by a ST unit. They allowed 1250 return yards last season and are on pace to allow 2084 yards this season which would also be among the most in the last decade.
