At a family Fourth of July party on Saturday, when, naturally many of the conversations I was part of centered around the Buffalo Bills, I was posed this straightforward (annual) question by one of my cousins — h/t John — that I want to pose to you, Rumblings readers.
— What are the worst and best-case scenarios for the Bills in 2026?
Here’s what I told John before devouring Chiavetta’s chicken and a ridiculous amount of sides on American’s 250th birthday.
Worst-case scenario for Bills in 2026
“Barely make the playoffs at 9-8”
Injuries are
impossible to predict and can obviously change things drastically, so I typically never factor them into season predictions, regardless of how negative or positive said predictions ultimately are. Just feels silly to do so.
In a worst-case scenario, the Bills daunting schedule proves to be very taxing on the new defensive scheme with a litany of new players in new roles under coordinator Jim Leonhard.
I don’t think anyone would be stunned if Buffalo’s defense incurs growing pains at the beginning of the season particularly against offenses like the Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams in Weeks 2-5, which would subsequently put added pressure on the offense to be close to perfect to win those games — much like what transpired in essentially all of the McDermott-era playoff exits.
(I have essentially no worries, even in a worst-case scenario situation, about Buffalo’s offense.)
Now, of course, the Bills have the firepower to dig themselves out of an early-season hole, but a sub .500 September and October would all but officially eliminate the team from the No. 1 seed race and squarely narrow Buffalo’s focus to one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots.
I’m usually not a “look at the schedule” analyst, because despite ample offseason time spent evaluating rosters, once NFL season’s begin, chaos ensues. A few teams everyone was sure would be bad ultimately play well and vice versa.
HOWEVER, four games in November and December against the Dolphins and Jets should be quality opportunities for the Bills to right the ship if they’re scrounging for wins down the stretch.
I couldn’t venture all the way to “they miss the playoffs” in a worst-case scenario simply because of the presence of Josh Allen.
He’s the best player in the NFL, who averages more touchdowns per game (2.35) than anyone in the history of the league.
We’ve seen him elevate those around him for many, many years now.
If the defense is a borderline disaster in Year 1 of Leonhard era, even in a worst-case scenario, I have the utmost confidence in Allen willing the team to nine wins and the final playoff spot in the AFC. And they’d again be a frightening wild-card team no one would want to play.
Best-case scenario for Bills in 2026
“Winning the Super Bowl”
Before I give this answer and before I said it out loud on the Fourth, I must say, John laughingly reminded me when he’s asked me this question the past five years, my best-case scenario has been “winning the Super Bowl.”
For as much as that sounds like the ultimate homer response — was I wrong?
(by the way, I will always give analysis that’s objective as possible here.)
The Bills have been a legitimate Super Bowl contender every season since 2020 when they have; lost in the AFC Championship Game, endured 13 seconds, earned the AFC’s No. 2 seed in the Damar Hamlin year and lost in the divisional round, were defeated in the same round the next year in Wide Right II to the eventual Super Bowl champs, lost in the AFC Championship Game, and experienced the overtime loss in Denver roughly six months ago.
And the best-case scenario for the Bills this season is… winning the Super Bowl.
In this scenario, the offense absolutely hums, with DJ Moore providing the high-end receiver talent that was woefully absent from last year’s Bills. Dalton Kincaid probably plays more than 27% of the snaps. James Cook rocks on the ground, again. Khalil Shakir is Khalil Shakir. Skyler Bell makes some plays. So do Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes.
And, frankly, Allen is Allen.
The difference in this scenario from the worst-case version… the Leonhard defense is precisely what Buffalo was missing in key moments over the past nine seasons. More aggression — see: blitzing — more unpredictability and front-seven disguises. Stouter run defense.
A Buffalo defense that hits the ground running coupled with a reloaded Allen offense leads to the Bills earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC through their challenging schedule that provides a multitude of playoff-prep contests before January.
Buffalo dispatches the lowest-remaining seed in the divisional round before, likely, hosting a division-winner, at home, in the new Highmark Stadium, for the AFC Championship Game.
A seven-to-10 point victory in that contest precedes a stellar schematic showing from Leonhard in the Super Bowl which coincides with a vintage Allen playoff performance on the game’s grandest stage, and the Bills win their first ever Lombardi trophy.
What do you think are the worst and best-case scenarios for the 2026 Bills?
