It took some effort and a lot of playing like they wanted to be anywhere else in October, but the Detroit Tigers have officially backed their way into the postseason. At least we can say they earned the right to back in by playing one pretty great half season of baseball. They will be facing a familiar foe, the Cleveland Guardians, for a three game set in Cleveland starting Tuesday afternoon. As the final Wild Card team and lowest seed in the playoffs, Detroit will be the visiting team for every
series of the playoffs and faces a steep uphill climb to the top.
Official rosters will likely be announced Tuesday morning, but today we’ll take a crack at predicting their roster, because being first is fun. The rules for the Wild Card roster are the same as the majority of the regular season – 26 players, no more than 13 pitchers – and if a player is placed on the injured list during the Wild Card, he would be ineligible for the upcoming Divisional Series. Teams also have a taxi squad for injury replacements that would likely include an extra reliever or two, a backup catcher, and a situational bat.
There are two factors that will influence who makes the Wild Card roster; the short, condensed nature of the series (3 games in 3 days) and the specificity with which AJ Hinch can attack a very well-known opponent. Knowing, or at least predicting, what Cleveland will throw at them will inform the last one or two spots as Hinch chases optimal matchups throughout the game.
We can start with the easy part: there are at least 20 players guaranteed a spot on this roster. For the position players, that would seemingly be Dillon Dingler, Jake Rogers, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres, Zack McKinstry, Javier Báez, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez and Jahmai Jones (11). Pitcher wise, we have Game 1 starter Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Will Vest, Kyle Finnegan, Tommy Kahnle, Tyler Holton, Troy Melton, Brant Hurter, Rafael Montero, and Paul Sewald (11).
That group of 22 leaves 4 roster spots available, and at most, 2 of them could go to pitchers. The active roster currently includes Tanner Rainey, Chris Paddack, and Keider Montero; Alex Lange, Bailey Horn, and Brenan Hanifee have been up recently but finished the season in Toledo. From that group of six, Paddack and Rainey seem like the least likely options; both pitched several innings on Sunday against Boston and have been relegated to low-leverage situations of late. Rainey in particular hasn’t been effective at all at the major league level in recent years and is trying to work his way back. Despite the power stuff, he seems a quite unlikely choice.
Montero seems likely after a strong start in Boston, but might have started too recently to maximize his value. Still, if he’s pitching middle relief he’s probably ready to go for Game 3 if not Game 2. To me, the strikeout upside Lange offers makes him the best option for one of these arms. The Tigers have been hunting for more strikeouts from the pen without success for months, so there is a path for Lange to get the nod.
On the other hand, Horn could be a candidate to provide a third lefty against Cleveland’s best bats like Steven Kwan or Kyle Manzardo, which could potentially let Hinch use Hurter in an opener role in Game 2 or a potential Game 3 if desired.
Hanifee strikes me as very similar to Jason Foley, who famously never pitched against Cleveland despite making the Divisional Series roster, and seems to be the least likely candidate. Despite his good ERA and solid FIP over 60 innings this year, the Tigers relegated him to Toledo in early September as they desperately chased strikeout from their relief corps. They don’t seem to care for his work but he is reportedly with the team in Cleveland and already spent his 15 days in the minors after being optioned down, so perhaps he’ll end up back in the mix.
With two more pitchers aboard, there is space for two more position players. Current options include Andy Ibanez, Trey Sweeney, Justyn-Henry Malloy, or the recently-demoted Jace Jung; a surprise callup from Toledo would be a shock at this stage. The first decision feels pretty straightforward. Of those four, only Ibanez has played a meaningful role in September, and Cleveland is liable to carry at least one lefty starter and three lefty relievers, suggesting the need for extra righty bats anyways. There’s also the fact that Ibáñez can play all over the infield, especially third base. With Colt Keith injured and McKinstry needed elsewhere at least part of the time, Ibáñez is a lock despite his inability to repeat his lefty mashing 2024 performance.
The last spot comes down to Sweeney or Malloy. Neither is great, but Malloy has some offensive upside and having one more righty might be the best, even if he is a bit redundant with Jones and Ibáñez both. Sweeney’s defensive value as a shortstop just does not offset his utter ineptitude at the plate, especially since McKinstry and Báez are both equal or better defenders at the position.
Ultimately, the position player selections should be highly consistent with how Hinch has structured his team down the stretch. Most of September has been a surprising dogfight, so he has generally been managing in playoff style for the last month or so. Those 13 bats have drawn the most at-bats and contributed the most in their opportunities of late and are likely to continue to do so in October.
The pitching staff is a bit more interesting because there are simply more options with similar expected value. The top 10 or 11 arms are near locks with a bit of flexibility in the last name or two called. I expect the last arms to be two of that Keider Montero/Lange/Horn. Knowing how Hinch values matchups and consistency, I expect Horn to be one of them and probably Montero as the second, even though I would prefer Lange’s upside. The issue remains Lange’s struggle to command his sinker and curveball post-injury.
Here’s the full prediction:
Catchers (2): Dingler, Rogers
Infielders (5): Torkelson, Torres, McKinstry, Ibanez, Baez
Outfielders (6): Greene, Perez, Meadows, Carpenter, Jones, Malloy
Starters (3): Skubal, Mize, Flaherty
Relievers (10): Vest, Finnegan, Holton, Kahnle, Melton, Hurter, Sewald, R. Montero, Horn, K. Montero
