With the Texas Longhorns as one of six SEC teams between 10-7 and 9-8 heading into the conference’s final gameday of the regular season, there are plenty of seeding scenarios that could play out depending on Saturday’s results, including the Horns hosting the Oklahoma Sooners in a Senior Night edition of the Red River Rivalry at the Moody Center.
Currently the No. 9 seed set for a first-round matchup against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, the outcome tomorrow will determine whether
head coach Sean Miller’s team secures a first-round bye, but Miller doesn’t necessarily believe that playing on the first or second day conveys an advantage in either direction.
“Sometimes you get into that neutral-court setting and you play really well on Wednesday, and then it just leads into the next day, whereas that team, even though they had the bye, they haven’t played on the court yet. They haven’t made a shot and it takes them a while to get going,” Miller said on Friday.
Of course, having to play on Wednesday would have an impact if one of the eight lowest seeds advances to the semifinals on Saturday or the championship game on Sunday given the demands of playing that many games on consecutive days, but that’s less of a concern for the Longhorns than beating the Sooners on Saturday to avoid a blow to their postseason resume.
The odds of an upset by Oklahoma have increased over the five weeks since Texas rallied for a 79-69 win in Norman — Porter Moser’s team has bounced back from a 1-9 start in SEC play to win five of its last seven games, which won’t be enough to make the NCAA Tournament barring a shocking run through the conference tournament, and probably won’t be enough save Moser’s job assuming that the Sooners can afford his buyout.
But it does make OU a dangerous team because of an offense that ranks eighth nationally in adjusted efficiency over the last 10 games.
“I think Oklahoma’s playing as well as any team in our league, difficult team to defend, an elite, elite three-point shooting team across the board, and they’re playing their best basketball,” Miller said.
The Sooners are 31st nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 37.2 percent with 44.7 percent of their shot attempts coming from behind the arc, No. 72 in the country. Over the last eight games, Oklahoma is making 47 percent of its three-point attempts, including 14-of-25 shooting against Georgia (56 percent), 13-of-19 shooting against Auburn (68.4 percent), and 12-of-22 shooting against Missouri (54.5 percent).
In wins over Auburn and LSU, guard Nijel Pack was a combined 11-of-19 shooting from three (57.9 percent).
Miller believes that the recent results are more in line with how Oklahoma was playing earlier in the season in losing three games by four points or less. An overtime loss to Missouri on the road required the Tigers to hit the game-tying three at the end of regulation and the game-winning three as time expired in overtime.
“There’s not a big difference between them and a lot of teams, including us. We have to be at our best, and we have great respect for them, especially on the offensive end. Very difficult team to defend,” Miller said.
In the first matchup, the Longhorns got off to a slow start, falling behind 17-4 at the 14:15 mark, but the bigger emphasis for the Texas staff is ending the first half well.
“We’ve been outscored towards the end of the first half maybe more in that part of the game than any other part, especially in SEC play, so really looking at what we can do to be better to close out at off as we enter halftime,” Miller said.
The staff has looked at its substitution patterns and considered the impact that foul trouble sometimes has on which players are available for that final four-minute stretch. And they’ve also noticed that the issues often go back to defense — the Longhorns allow opponents to shoot better from three-point range, struggle to rebound misses, and give up more points in transition.
“Some of it might be the fatigue wearing against us. I would hope not. We play eight guys. Most teams do. It’s not like we only play five, but we have to get better in that area. That’s one of our keys here, as we’re in March, is being a consistent team from start to finish, and not letting a three- or four-minute segment go against us, especially one that leads into halftime,” Miller said.
The win probability for Texas is 69 percent heading into Saturday’s matchup, which tips at 7:30 p.m. Central on SEC Network, 20 minutes after Senior Night festivities honoring guard Jordan Pope, guard Tramon Mark, guard Chendall Weaver, and forward Lassina Traore.
