The Horned Frogs keep taking a torch to the NCAA Tournament dreams of its Big 12 opponents, winning three of its last four games over teams that were battling for one of the final at-large spots in the Big Dance. While the game did not not move the needle in a major way for TCU’s overall metrics, the 12-point home victory over Arizona State allows the Frogs to move onto the right side of the Bubble and send the Sun Devils tumbling harder than Bobby Hurley tumbled to the Schollmaier Arena floor during
a scuffle started by his team in front of his bench. TCU only has three losses outside of the top Quadrant this season, but travels to Manhattan’s Octagon of Doom on Saturday to take on a struggling Kansas State squad that the Horned Frogs narrowly bettered in Fort Worth. TCU will be favored in the road Q2 contest, but must avoid a slip-up in order to stay above the cut-line and push beyond the First Four play-in game
Horned Frogs Team Sheet
- NET Rank: 46 (↑1)
- KenPom Rank: 50 (-)
- BPI: 53 (↓1)
- KPI: 51 (↑8)
- Strength of Schedule: 50 (-)
- Wins Above Bubble Rank: 45 (↓1)
Bracket Projections:
Note: all rankings are per NET unless otherwise noted
- Lunardi: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #35 Auburn Tigers in Dayton, OH
- Palm: Last Four In, 11-seed vs. #57 Cal Bears in Dayton, OH
- Haslam: Last Team In
- Torvik: Last Four In, 52.8% in Tournament, average seed 10.6
- INCCSTATS: 64% in Tournament, average seed 9.7
- BracketMatrix: Last Team In, average seed 11.00
Around the Bubble
Impact Games of the Week
- #67 Oklahoma Sooners (↑4) defeats #35 Auburn Tigers (↓3) – Auburn is going to be a difficult case for the Committee by Selection Sunday: the nation’s most difficult schedule, but the losses still count and the Tigers already have 13. Saturday’s Q3 home game vs. Ole Miss is approaching a must-win to keep this resume afloat, even with the otherwise strong metrics. The Sooners lost nine straight in SEC play earlier this season and is just 5-14 in Q1+Q2 games, but are barely clinging to life thanks to this win. All three of Oklahoma’s remaining games this season are with fellow at-large contenders LSU, Mizzou, and Texas, so any loss would likely topple the Sooner Schooner
- #37 UCLA Bruins (↑4) defeats #62 USC Trojans (↓4) – Mick Cronin needs to have more absurd immature blowups at reporters, as his Bruins have won two straight huge games after getting blown out at Michigan State. UCLA went from around 60% probability to earn an at-large bid 10 days ago to now being a virtual lock at 96% likely to reach the Tourney. With three Q1 games to play, UCLA would likely need to lose-out to fall completely out of the picture now. The Trojans meanwhile are running out of chances to get back into the picture, now riding a 4 game losing streak and holding very little resume value. Hosting #12 Nebraska on Saturday isn’t quite a must-win, but it’s the best chance to give that lackluster resume a meaningful leg to stand on.
Climbing
- #58 Missouri Tigers (↑4) – Mizzou just keeps adding Q1 wins to its ledger, picking up a third in the last two weeks with the win over #20 Tennessee. Dragging down the Tigers is an abysmal non-conference slate that only featured two Q1 games, both of which were embarrassing neutral-site blowout losses. Missouri likely needs at least two more wins to remain comfortable on Selection Sunday, but a loss this weekend to #97 Mississippi State would send the Tigers into very dangerous waters.
- #22 Saint Mary’s Gaels (↑4) – SMC secured its biggest win of the season, handing WCC rival Santa Clara at home, avenging the loss from January. The Gaels may be a bit of computer-trickers, dominating its opponents to drive the metrics way up, but playing a schedule that ranks outside the Top 100. Saint Mary’s remains without a Q1 win, but gets its best chance on Saturday night with #5 Gonzaga coming to town. The Gaels may get another Q1 opportunity if it sees Santa Clara or or the Zags in the WCC Tourney. While the metrics may suggest a top-6 seed for SMC, anything short of at least the WCC Final would leave the Gaels with a resume that resembles a play-in squad at best.
- Other Key Bubble Wins: #26 Iowa (↑2) win vs. #38 Ohio State; #44 UCF (↑2) win vs. #21 BYU; #57 Cal (↑2) win vs. #31 SMU; #43 San Diego St. (↑3) win vs. #25 Utah State
Falling
- #39 Indiana Hoosiers (↓3) – IU had a resume littered with “acceptable” losses, explained away via the harsh reality at the top end of the Big Ten, while avoiding the brutal loss vs. the basement of the league. That was until Tuesday when Northwestern waltzed into Assembly Hall and picked up just its 4th conference win of the campaign. With a non-con schedule ranked 218th, the Hoosiers needed to show out in Big Ten play, but sit under .500 headed into March. This is still a likely at-large team, but it would be advisable to pick up two more wins to stay on the right side of the cut-line.
- #66 West Virginia Mountaineers (↓3) – WVU has now lost three straight, all of which could’ve been characterized as ‘gotta have it’ games. Tuesdays overtime loss in Stillwater, getting the big bucket to force the extra time only to allow the Cowboys to score the next seven points and cruise to the OT victory. The ‘Eers still technically have a slim breath of life remaining for an at-large bid, but absolutely must defeat AJ Dybantsa and #21 BYU in Morgantown this weekend in order to avoid true elimination.
- Other Key Bubble Losses: #68 Wake Forest (↓3) Q3 loss to #156 Boston College; #45 New Mexico (↓2) loss to #63 Nevada; #38 Ohio State (↓3) loss to #26 Iowa
Bubble Watch
It proved to be a thinning of the herd week across the at-large landscape as a handful of teams near the top made major strides towards full lock status while the bumbling teams in the bottom of the Bubble crashed and burned. The Iowa Hawkeyes leapt up into lock status with the blowout home win over Ohio State; while its overall resume isn’t elite, if you hit 20 wins in the Big Ten, with no remaining landmines on the schedule, it’s a lock. The at-large race has now reduced to just 35 contenders after four more squads had their Bubble burst, finally taking that back-breaking loss. Wake Forest took the worst loss of the week, falling to 14-14 on the season after an inexcusable loss to Boston College. The others fell victim to “excusable” road contests against projected tournament teams, but the missed opportunity means it has struck midnight on any Cinderella run for Minnesota, Arizona State, and Butler. As the regular season enters its final week, there are still 17 at-large spots up for grabs as contending squads look to keep pace in the tightening race.
Look Ahead:
This weekend looks to be primarily focused on avoiding an ugly loss as 14 of the 35 at-large contenders are playing against teams that are already eliminated from the conversation. As the Bubble shrinks there will be fewer double-bubble matchups headlined by the Lonestar Showdown between A&M and UT, both in a fight for postseason life. The race for the Mountain West regular season crown gets the big CBS spotlight as SDSU and UNM will battle it out to see who can push Utah State at the top of the league, and perhaps knock the loser into at-large limbo. The Saturday primetime matchup in the Big 12 between a surging UCF and a reeling Baylor is a chance for the Knights to fully lock up a bid from this impressive winning streak and also mercifully end any hope for the 14-14 Bears.
Bubble Battles 🫧🆚🫧
- #36 New Mexico Lobos vs. #43 San Diego State Aztecs – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM, CBS
- #42 Texas A&M Aggies vs. #40 Texas Longhorns – Sat. Feb. 28, 3:00 PM, ESPN
- #65 LSU Tigers vs. #67 Oklahoma Sooners – Sat. Feb. 28, 5:00 PM, SEC Net
- #73 Stanford Cardinal vs. #31 SMU Mustangs – Sat. Feb. 28, 5:00 PM, ACC Net
- #44 UCF Knights vs. #51 Baylor Bears – Sat. Feb. 28, Feb. 28, 7:00 PM, FS1
Bubble vs. Locks 🫧🆚🔒
- #56 Seton Hall Pirates at #9 UConn Huskies – Sat. Feb. 28, 11:00 AM, FS1 (Q1)
- #29 Kentucky Wildcats vs. #17 Vanderbilt Commodores – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM, ESPN (Q1)
- #36 Clemson Tigers vs. #16 Louisville Cardinals – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM ESPN2 (Q1)
- #62 USC Trojans vs. #12 Nebraska – Sat. Feb. 28, 3:00 PM, Big Ten Net (Q1)
- #55 Washington Huskies vs. #34 Wisconsin Badgers – Sat. Feb. 28, 3:00 PM, FS1 (Q2)
- #53 Virginia Tech at #27 North Carolina Tar Heels – Sat. Feb. 28, 7:30 PM, ESPN2 (Q1)
- #22 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. #5 Gonzaga Bulldogs – Sat. Feb. 28, 9:30 PM, ESPN (Q1)
- #38 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #7 Purdue Boilermakers – Sun. Mar. 1, 12:30 PM, CBS
- #39 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #11 Michigan State Spartans – Sun. Mar. 1, 2:45 PM, CBS
Bubble vs. Spoiler 🫧🆚❌
- #48 Miami OH RedHawks at #285 Western Michigan Broncos – Fri. Feb. 27, 5:00 PM, CBSSN (Q4)
- #28 NC State Wolfpack at #93 Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Sat. Feb. 28, 11:00 AM, CW (Q2)
- #47 VCU Rams vs. #179 Fordham Rams – Sat. Feb. 28, 11:30 AM, USA Network (Q4)
- #58 Missouri Tigers vs. #97 Mississippi State Bulldogs – Sat. Feb. 28, Noon, SEC Network (Q2)
- #32 Miami FL Hurricanes vs. Boston College Eagles – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM, ACC Net (Q3)
- #37 UCLA Bruins at #71 Minnesota Gophers – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM, FS1 (Q1)
- #54 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #80 Oklahoma State Cowboys – Sat. Feb. 28, 1:00 PM, CBSSN (Q3)
- #33 Georgia Bulldogs vs. #109 South Carolina Gamecocks – Sat. Feb. 28, 2:30 PM, SEC Net (Q3)
- #57 Cal Bears vs. #123 Pitt Panthers – Sat. Feb. 28, 3:00 PM, ACC Net (Q3)
- #78 Syracuse Orange vs. #68 Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Sat. Feb. 28, 4:45 PM, CW (Q1)
- #46 TCU Horned Frogs at #100 Kansas State Wildcats – Sat. Feb. 28, 5:30 PM, ESPN2 (Q2)
- #61 Boise State Broncos at #133 Fresno State Bulldogs – Sat. Feb. 28, 6:30 PM (Q2)
- #41 Santa Clara Broncos vs. #178 Oregon State Beavers – Sat. Feb. 28, 7:00 PM, CBSSN (Q4)
- #35 Auburn Tigers vs. #92 Ole Miss Rebels – Sat. Feb. 28, 7:30 PM, SEC Net (Q3)
