With Week 10 firmly in the rearview mirror and no one still talking about it at all , it’s time we turn and look at the Week 11 match-up against the New York Giants. What can we expect to see from the Green
Bay Packers’ offense in this game? I looked at some numbers and film to form a kind of attack plan against this Giants defense. (Unless otherwise noted, all the numbers I’m using here will be coming from NFL Pro.)
We’ll start where the Packers seem to want to start: with the run game. The Packers have not been particularly good this season (their EPA per rush of -0.04 has them 16th in the league), but the Giants’ defense has been even worse. The Giants boast the worst rushing defense in the league this year, allowing +0.16 per rush. That’s the same EPA per Play that Lamar Jackson has been generating every time he drops back this year (and +0.01 better than a Daniel Jones dropback).
The second-worst rushing defense in the league this year is the Bengals (+0.11 EPA per Rush), and that match-up saw Josh Jacobs put up 93 yards on 18 carries (5.2 YPA), his best game of the season. So I would expect to see a steady diet of the run game, and for the Packers to have success doing it.
Early in the game, you can hit the Giants on the edges. They typically have some soft edges, and you can take advantage of that with some outside tosses and some pin/pull runs.
As they start to take that away (and they will), you can find some lanes on the inside. You can dress those runs up to look the same to really create space on the interior. Bring the TE in on the escort motion, then hit ‘em with the inside toss.
The Packers’ down-to-down running game should also find success, but if they’re hunting for explosives on the ground, that would be a good way to do it. You can also find success out of I-Formation, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see TE Josh Whyle working in that role for the Packers this week.
When passing, the Packers should be able to find success wherever they want. Intermediate passing? The Packers are 4th on offense while the Giants are 23rd on defense. Quick game? The Packers are 2nd, the Giants are 10th. Play action? The Packers are 5th, the Giants are 21st. Long passing? The Packers are 13th, the Giants are 25th.
For now, we’ll focus on the play-action game, because that seems like an area the Packers could attack. The Giants’ linebackers react aggressively to play action, which has not necessarily been true of all the defenses the Packers have faced so far this season. They will react particularly strongly to play action from under center, but they will react nearly as strongly out of Pistol with the RB in a Dot formation (lined up directly behind the QB). Selling that action will see the linebackers screaming out of position to take away the run.
They’ll also react to play action out of shotgun (with the RB aligned next to the QB). The reaction isn’t quite as strong, but it’s enough to get a false step and then widen into their drop, which will open up space in the middle. Running a Play Action Strike concept should result in some nice gains.
In general, the middle of the field should be open for business against the Giants. Even when not employing play action, the inside linebackers will widen into their drops in zone and be perfectly happy covering grass. That can lead to some open lanes in the passing game to the intermediate middle of the field.
They won’t show sim-pressure looks too much, but when they do, it’s pretty easy to get them to declare. By using a good cadence (which Jordan Love has in his bag), get them to show the droppers before you snap the ball, and make sure you’ve got at least one route breaking to the middle of the field. Their dropping LBs off play action aren’t good, but they’re worse when dropping off from a simulated pressure.
For their coverage tendencies, the Giants play with a single high safety on 56.9% of their defensive snaps, the 3rd highest rate in the league (per FTN). After going up against some teams that preferred their two-high looks a little more, this could help to open up more downfield attacks for the Packers. They also don’t disguise what they’re doing much on the back end. If the Giants are showing a one-high safety look pre-snap, you’re more than likely getting a one-high safety look post-snap.
So here’s a summary and our attack plan:
- Attack the outside edges of this defense early with tosses (focus on pin/pull).
- When they start looking to take that away, hit them with some counters. Inside toss would be a good way to do this.
- Use pullers at the point of attack in the run game. Whether that’s a motion TE, a pulling o-lineman or a combination of both. That can help with moving bodies in the run game, but can also build in triggers for the defense on the play-action game.
- Look to attack with play action, specifically from under center or pistol/dot.
- Make sure you’re loaded up with your middle-field attacking concepts. Dagger, Arches, Portland/Mills, backside dig routes, etc.
- If they show a blitz, use cadence to get them to declare who is coming. If they’re dropping out, make sure you’ve got at least one route breaking to the middle.
- Very little deception on the back end of the defense. Make sure you’re checking the backside safety post-snap, but you should have a clear picture of how to attack the defense before the ball is even snapped.
Albums listened to: Missionary Girls – Bleeding Out; Wilby – Center of Affection
