Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight standouts Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van will collide this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 323.
Pantoja’s late-career peak has been rather remarkable. He didn’t win his UFC title until his 31st professional fight at 33 years of age, which seemingly set the stage for a short reign. Instead, Pantoja has quickly racked up four title defenses, turning away both the best fighters of his generation and the next
wave of up-and-coming talent. He’s rocketed up the pound-for-pound ranks, and even at 35 years of age in the lightest male division, is favored to defend yet again.
Van is over a decade younger and is clearly a remarkable talent. The Burmese slugger fights at an outrageous pace both in terms of fight schedule (this is his 18th bout in four years as a professional) and in-cage volume. Less than 18 months ago, Van suffered a knockout loss to Charles Johnson, yet it hardly mattered because he was back in action and showing improvement two months later. He rides a five-fight win streak into his first title shot, and win or lose, it’s clear Van is going to be a Flyweight factor for many years to come.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete
Pantoja vs. Van Betting Odds
- Alexandre Pantoja victory: -265
- Alexandre Pantoja via TKO/KO/DQ: +850
- Alexandre Pantoja via submission: +145
- Alexandre Pantoja via decision: +300
- Joshua Van victory: +200
- Joshua Van via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Joshua Van via submission: +3500
- Joshua Van via decision: +460
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Pantoja Wins
Pantoja’s combination of masterful jiu-jitsu and marauding kickboxing is both formidable and a little silly. This is a man who — seconds apart — will execute a brilliant foot sweep into brilliant back take and charge forward swinging hooks from his hips. An iron chin helps make it all work, and his kicking game has really improved over the years as well.
This is a fairly straightforward style match up for the champion. Van is the sharper boxer, throwing crisper punches in longer combinations. Everywhere else though, Pantoja has an edge. He’s the bigger man and much nastier grappler, and jiu-jitsu is an area that is very hard to level up in quickly. Van may be an incredible natural talent, but he’ll look very ordinary if Pantoja takes his back.
Therefore, the strategy here is simple enough. Pantoja should be imposing his physicality edge with blasting kicks and big swings, baiting Van into engaging him in a scrap. The second that happens, Pantoja can drop levels and try to run though Van with a takedown. It might take a try or two, but Pantoja has taken down better defensive wrestlers.
Once on top, the difference in experience will show.
How Van Wins
Van is a great boxer with the mentality of a brawler. He builds combinations smartly and counters really well, yet when it comes down to it, he’s more than happy to stand his ground and trade. His impressive output is a major part of his success, as is his insistence on ripping the mid-section at every possible opportunity.
If Van’s takedown defense and defensive grappling can hold up — and that’s a very big if given the opponent — to a reasonable degree, this is a suddenly a very winnable fight. We have seen Pantoja slow down in previous fights and need time to recover, whereas Van is a decade younger with the most relentlessly high-volume attack in the Top 10.
If “Fearless” can pull momentum into his corner, he’s not giving it back.
This may end up being a case of weathering the storm. Pantoja’s early takedowns are going to be tough to resist, but if Van can consistently work to stand without giving up strangles in the process, the fight will get easier. Every body shot will slow the champion a notch and make the upset a little more achievable, and we’re talking about a man that routinely throws seven-punch combinations.
A little success could build quickly.
Pantoja vs. Van Prediction
I think there are strong odds that Van captures a UFC title at some point in his UFC career. I don’t, however, like this matchup much at all for him. Despite all odds and expectations, Pantoja still appears to be remarkably fit and nowhere near a decline. He easily bowled over his last two opponents, a pair of bigger and more experienced athletes than Van.
Ultimately, I don’t think Van has shown the jiu-jitsu skill necessary to make the champion work on the canvas. Even if he can avoid the strangle, he’s still going to end up pinned for long periods of time, and a situation that isn’t going to fatigue Pantoja. If Van can’t slow Pantoja down, he’s stuck in a situation where he has a minute or two at the start of each round to score a knockout.
That doesn’t sound like a winning strategy against the most brick-chinned man at 125-pounds.
