The C.J. Stroud question is actually three questions. We have hashed and rehashed this before, but important events that seem unrelated have converged to bring the question back to the forefront. The first is that preseason publications have begun to do their quarterback rankings. One in particular (PFF) had Davis Mills ranking higher than Stroud. That obviously raised some eyebrows.
The second event was the contract extension for Henry To’o’to’o. Obviously, eight million dollars a year for a linebacker
may not have much to do with a quarterback contract by itself, but when taken in concert with the Will Anderson extension, Danielle Hunter contract, Azeez Al-Shaair contract, Derek Stingley contract, and the looming contracts for Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter things start to come into focus more. Can the Texans outfit the best defense in football AND pay a quarterback top quarterback dollars? Moreover, does Stroud deserve the money?
I try to approach things analytically as much as possible. So, I am doing this in a specific order. The first question is where do the various experts rank Stroud? We referenced PFF, but it is always better to get a cross-section of different experts and pundits to see if we can get a handle of where the consensus ranks him. The second question is do we agree with the consensus? Obviously, that is a yes or no answer, but all answers deserve qualification. The final question is whether we think he is the long-term quarterback of the future and what he needs to do to solidify that answer.
Where does Stroud rank?
I think we can all agree that PFF is an outlier and that was based purely on last season. I am sure if they did a multi-season analysis then the rankings would come out differently. I should note that ESPN.com only listed the top ten quarterbacks according to them, but listed seven different honorable mentions. Stroud came up in the category of others receiving votes, so he could be no better than 18th according to them.
Statistically, what I would normally do is first look for outliers in the groupings. I obviously could include additional sources, but once we remove PFF from the group we get a pretty tight group of where people see Stroud. He ranks between 18th and 24th according to the four sources. Of course, the NFL.com one deserves some further explanation, but I imagine that most of these sources have some of the same biases built in.
Do we trust the rankings?
This is not s simple yes or no proposition. So, as much as it is a cop out, I will say they are both right and wrong. For instance, the NFL.com is more of a fantasy ranking. Fantasy rankings are based on expected production and not necessarily pure ability. The Texans will likely be more conservative this season as they hope to establish a running game and minimize negative plays. That distinction alone comes with a number of caveats that impact the third question in our piece.
It looks like the overall consensus is that he fits in around 20th. I am sure all of them are at least partially basing that on the numbers they expect him to produce. Would Stroud produce better numbers on a different team and in a different system? That’s a fair question. I imagine he might go a little higher than 20th if teams were starting from scratch, but that is never the reality.
So, I don’t think he is literally the 20th best quarterback in football when simply looking at skills and ability. However, that is what his production says at this point. So, as a statistician on the interwebs, I cannot ignore what has been done and what goes into those rankings. The decision to sign or not sign Stroud is the most consequential decision this organization will make. Of course, that spills us into the third question.
What does this mean for Stroud’s future?
My position on Stroud has always been nuanced and complicated, but it really has not fundamentally changed in the last year. He is a solid NFL quarterback. There is a grouping of guys that are consistent MVP threats every year. There is another tier of guys that are always very good. Then there is a third tier of guys that can put up numbers in the right circumstances, but probably cannot carry a team on their own to the championship. Stroud is in that third group.
Make no mistake, they can win one. Sam Darnold is in that group. If you put a good enough team around them, they are capable of making enough plays to win enough games to get to the Super Bowl. Stroud is not Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Matthew Stafford. He never will be those guys. He isn’t Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, or Justin Herbert. He might be in that next group, but I have already listed seven quarterbacks that he isn’t. Is he better than Caleb Williams? Jordan Love? Jared Goff? Jalen Hurts? Drake Maye? Now all of the sudden we are pushing him into the teens.
We get another group of guys that have sometimes been great and sometimes been meh. That group includes Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Brock Purdy. I haven’t even included the group of young quarterbacks that haven’t established themselves like Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough, and Cam Ward. This also doesn’t include journeymen like Daniel Jones who have shown glimpses of good play in the past. I think everyone is starting to get the idea.
The Seattle Seahawks showed you can win without one of those top ten guys. I would dare say that more championships have been won by players outside the top ten than we might believe. After all, Burrows, Stafford, Allen, and Jackson have combined for one title. If you are asking a quarterback to play conservatively, take care of the football, and give his team a chance to win with their defense, you don’t need to pay a guy 55 to 60 million dollars to do that.
This is where the nuance comes in. Saying I don’t want to pay Stroud is not just a reflection on Stroud. It is a reflection of how DeMeco Ryans wants to win football games. If you are going to win with your defense then paying a quarterback 20-30 million affords you the ability to pay one or two additional defenders you can’t afford to pay if you are paying your quarterback 60 million. That means keeping Lassiter and Bullock. That means having the best secondary in football versus having a solid one and hoping you fill the holes in the draft. Saying I don’t want to pay Stroud is not me disliking Stroud. It is just an acknowledgment that he might not be the right fit for what Ryans wants to do.
