Missouri vs. Cleveland State
When | 7:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction | Mizzou -26
ESPN win probability | 97.1% chance
The Starters
Mizzou (0-0)
G: Jason Crowe Jr. (FR, No. 7 recruit nationally in the 247Sports Composite)
G: Jamier Jones (SO, 11.9 PPG in 2025-26 at Providence)
F: Toni Bryant (FR, No. 21 recruit nationally in the 247Sports Composite)
F: Mark Mitchell (5 YR, 18.3 PPG in 25-26)
C: Bryson Tiller (SO, 7.9 PPG in 25-26 at Kansas)
Notable Sixth Man: Trent
Pierce (SR, 10.4 PPG in 25-26)
Cleveland State (0-0)
G: Jordan Lowery (SO, 4.6 PPG in 25-26 at UT Arlington)
G: Curtis Stinson Jr. (SO, 1.4 PPG in 25-26 at North Texas)
G/F: Obie Bronston Jr. (SR, 10.3 PPG in 25-26 at South Carolina State)
F: Rayvon Griffith (SR, 4.0 PPG in 25-26 at Kent State)
C: Derek Vorst (SR, 7.9 PPG in 25-26 at Indiana State)
Notable Sixth Man: Dre Jones (JR, 4.3 PPG in 25-26 at Kent State)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Cleveland State: Dennis Gates’ old team that features a brand new roster
For much of its history, Cleveland State was a fairly run of the mill low major program. The Vikings had sporadic streaks of success (including a Sweet Sixteen run in 1986) in between longer stretches of mediocrity or deeper struggles.
Dennis Gates sparked one of the most productive stretches in program history before leaving for Columbia, then Daniyal Robinson came in and extended Cleveland State’s postseason streak to five straight years. Robinson also left for greener pastures, taking over at mid major powerhouse North Texas, which led the Vikings back to Rob Summers.
He was a key assistant for Gates during his run in Cleveland, then moved on to Miami (OH) for two years before reuniting with Gates for one successful season at Mizzou. That season brought him back to the Vikings, this time as the head coach charged with keeping the stretch of productivity that began with his former boss alive.
The results have been mixed. Cleveland State went 11-22 with a 6-14 finish in Horizon League play and the team missed the postseason for the first time since Gates’ first year with the Vikings. The good news (or bad news depending on your viewpoint): Summers is getting an entirely fresh start. Every single player from last year’s squad is gone, replaced largely by a mix of D-I transfers and freshmen.
MVC import Derek Vorst, who started 13 games at Indiana State last season, and double-digit scorer Obie Bronston Jr. from South Carolina State are the highlights among a group that features plenty of unknowns. The rest of the conference isn’t particularly bullish on Cleveland State, either, as the Vikings were picked 11th (out of 12) in the preseason poll and did not garner any preseason all-conference selections.
The bottom line: MU is the heavy favorite for a reason, and this (in all likelihood) will be a ramp up game for the Tigers before their first major test of the season against SLU.
Three Keys to the Game
Help Mark Mitchell find his sea legs
The return of Mitchell at the end of August was a massive boost for the Tigers. He showed over Mizzou’s Pro Day and a pair of exhibition matchups that he’s still trying to shake off some rust and get acclimated to this year’s squad, though. That’s not too much of a concern when the games don’t count, but MU’s schedule escalates in difficulty quickly this year — including a game Friday against a top-notch mid major in the Billikens.
Mitchell can impact a game and almost singlehandedly will his team to a win in a way that few other players can in college basketball, and that’s an invaluable asset for the Tigers. They should treat it as such and do everything possible to get him ramped up for the rest of non-con during the season opener, a strategy that would not only help Mizzou later in the week but also assist with gaining the upper hand over Cleveland State.
Control the boards
Rebounding has been a near-perpetual concern for Mizzou during the Dennis Gates era. Some of that can be attributed to the tradeoffs associated with his defensive scheme and stylistic choices, but at other times it’s simply been a matter either not having the size, skill or hustle needed to seize control of the rebounding battle. Those struggles have been something that’s held the Tigers back the past few years.
It’s also why they brought in Bryson Tiller and Jaylen Carey, who are both excellent crashing the boards, as part of the team’s portal class this offseason. Even without those additions (and following Carey’s indefinite suspension for a violation of team rules that was announced Monday), MU would still be expected to easily control the rebounding battle against a completely new-look Vikings squad that’s thin on both height and experience.
The margins in a game like this are extremely slim for Cleveland State. Control the boards — which would limit second chance opportunities for the visitors and create more chances for Mizzou — and the margins become nearly nonexistent.
Mix in the freshmen early and often
The Tigers’ trio of talented freshmen have impressed in various ways leading up to the season, and all are expected to play some sort of regular role on the team. With Mizzou’s limited number of buy games this year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Gates partly use those opportunities as a sort of stress test on the newcomers to try and get them acclimated faster. MU’s matchup with the Vikings provides one of the best opportunities to do so.
The sooner the Tigers take control and gain a comfortable lead, the sooner Gates can use the contest as a crash lab (as our basketball brain trust describes it) to try out different lineups and get some players longer runs on the court than they might typically see. With the aforementioned in-state showdown against SLU and another neutral site contest against Marquette on the docket for the next two weeks, getting some of those freshman mistakes out of the way now could pay dividends quickly.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 91 – Cleveland State 63
I could see this being a game where both teams start a bit slow due to the nerves of the season opener and getting game action that actually counts together for the first time, something that may keep it close early on. Mizzou’s sizable talent and experience advantage should allow it to create a healthy gap heading into and coming out of halftime, though.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the lead get up into the 30s (possibly higher) during the second half, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if Cleveland State takes a bite out of that margin in the closing stretch as the Tigers fiddle with some different looks and start to run out the clock. A final margin of victory somewhere in the 20s seems about right to me; I’ll lean toward the larger side and say MU opens up the season with a 28-point win.
