SAN DIEGO—Getting into March Madness is nothing new for Utah State, which is in the NCAA Tournament for the 26th time including six of the last seven tourneys. But winning a game has been far more rare.
Friday’s victory over Villanova was just the third time in the last 50 years the 9th-seeded Aggies (29-6) made the second round. Their last trip to the Sweet 16 was in 1970, when the tourney only had 25 entries.
Utah State won the Mountain West regular season and conference tournament titles, though
Villanova was only the third NCAA tourney opponent it played this season. That likely contributed to it getting a No. 9 seed despite being ranked in the Top 30 by KenPom.com.
To better understand the Aggies, we reached out to Matt Hanifan from SB Nation sister site MW Connection for some insight and a score prediction. Below are his simple answers to our convoluted questions:
AZ Desert Swarm: Utah State shot 62.5 percent in the second half against Villanova and only missed two shots in the final 12 minutes. What has been the key to the Aggies’ offensive success this season?
Matt Hanifan: “Aggies head coach Jerrod Calhoun is one of the more innovative minds in the country with how his offenses have multiple layers to their actions. Their offense is driven by ball and player movement. Rarely will you see Utah State’s offense completely stagnate in the halfcourt, where it ranks in the top 35 nationally in assist percentage. Mason Falslev and MJ Collins (as well as point guard Drake Allen) are the drivers behind that.”
Leading scorers Mason Falslev and MJ Collins combined for 42 points in the first round. What are their best skills, and where do they struggle?
“Collins is a flat-out bucket getter. That’s his MO. He can score from all three levels and is a very good off movement as a secondary creator. He’s also one of Utah State’s more athletic play finishers in transition. Falslev is Utah State’s Swiss Army knife. He’s not as dynamic a scorer, and he’s not very athletic. But he’s an outstanding processor on both ends of the floor. His superpower is his brain, where he’s oftentimes a few steps ahead of his opponent. Both players are pretty savvy in the passing lanes as well, especially Falslev.”
The Aggies made the most of the eight turnovers they forced on Friday, scoring 18 points off them, and for the season they get a takeaway on more than 20 percent of possessions. How have they been so successful in this area?
“Utah State primarily utilizes a shape-shifting matchup zone that will throw the rhythm of opposing offenses off. One second, they’ll be in a 2-3 zone. The next? Well, they’re in man. There’s no true shape to its zone; it’s amoebic. The Aggies have good ball pressure and do an excellent job forcing deflections/turnovers on the defensive end, allowing them to get out in transition for easy opportunities.
Arizona dominates teams in the paint, both by getting to the rim and drawing fouls to go to the line. How do you expect Utah State to handle this from a defensive standpoint?
“On paper, Motiejus Krivas will be a handful for Utah State. And it’s not just him; Brayden Burries and Koa Peat will be, too. I expect Utah State to do its best to congest the paint in its zone to try and force Arizona to beat them from deep. Utah State’s also going to have to buckle down on the defensive glass against Arizona, too, which is a tall task (figuratively and literally).”
Jerrod Calhoun has continued the trend of Utah State coaches to have instant success, and rumors are he could also be the latest to quickly move to another job. Could Sunday be his last game with the Aggies?
“Understandably, Calhoun has been linked to the Cincinnati job, his alma mater. Though his buyout is $4 million after this season, and the program will be transitioning into a better, more powerful Pac-12 next season, so I think there’s less than a 50 percent chance that Sunday is his last game (should USU lose). But anything is possible in the coaching carousel at this time of year. Money talks.”
Prediction time. Does Utah State make it to the second weekend for the first time, knocking off a title contender in the process, or does Arizona make a third straight Sweet 16 and fourth in five seasons under Tommy Lloyd? Give us a score prediction.
“I think Arizona wins 82-66. The Wildcats are too talented, point blank.”
