In the last three weeks, Colt Emerson has made his MLB debut with the Seattle Mariners, notched his first MLB hit with a home run, hit his first career triple, hit three more home runs, and made some stellar plays at third base. Emerson still can’t legally buy a beer yet, but his scorching first three weeks in the league are a big part of the Mariners getting their season on track with winning streaks, home run-fueled comebacks, and walk-off victories at home. He’s become extremely important at work
in a very short amount of time, so much so that when he was a late-scratch for Monday’s game with back tightness, the collar-tugging was palatable around Mariners-ville.
Hopefully it’s nothing a couple days off won’t fix, but before that happened, I asked y’all in the FEED last week to submit your hottest takes regarding Emerson’s ceiling and floor as player. What audacious heights will he reach? Will his lows be trench-like or simply pedestrian? Let’s review some responses and throw some rankings on them using my patented and very scientific Mariners Hot Take Ranking System:
Poster SomethingTotallyIllogical says:
“His three preseason ZiPs comps were the 20 y.o. seasons of Jurickson Profar, Roy White, and JP Crawford.
Profar, oscillation around replacement until steroids.
Roy White (1965-1979), 41 WAR career. First positive WAR in fourth season age 24. Median season 3 WAR, max 5.8.
JP, replacement level until arriving in Seattle age 24. Should be at 20 WAR career end-of-season. Median season 1.9 WAR, max 4.8.“
Hmmm, ZiPs here provides an interesting range of player comps with Profar being the floor, J.P. being the mid-to-upper range, and Roy White being a very high ceiling. Also, wow, Roy White. I was not familiar with your game! Dude played left field for 15 seasons for the Yankees, posted 6.8 WAR in 1970 while playing all 162 games. Sure, sign me up for that! Rating this take an IWAKUMA.
Poster jmozeika says:
“As a ceiling I kind of have him in the Corey Seager but healthy range (so less down years, and more longevity).. maybe 55 career fWAR. Maybe slightly better than Corey Seager because of his discerning eye and better plate discipline.
The floor? Maybe a pre-2021 JP Crawford. Good glove, but the bat for some reason just doesn’t stick. 1.5 to 2.0 fWAR during his prime years but falls out of usefulness as he ages out of his glove.“
Sure, healthy Corey Seager sounds smashing. I will also take that any day. And another J.P. mention but his not-s0-great seasons as his floor. Wouldn’t be terrible, but a bit disappointing given Colt’s hot start. Rating this take a BOSIO.
Poster aubrey94 says:
“ceiling I think J-Ram; there is no floor but I’ll say Adam Frazier.”
I’ve always wanted a Jose Ramirez on the Mariners. However, I do not want another Captain Slapdick. Bonus points for invoking the obvious LL floor meme. Rating this take as BRASH because it made me think of Colt knocking someone out like Ramirez did to Tim Anderson.
Poster volta-verve says:
“I think he could be a consistent 3/4 WAR guy. I expect him to be 10/20% better than league average with average or plus shortstop defense. His floor would be something like a league average batter with mediocre defense. His ceiling is unfortunately limited by his relative lack of power, but that could change if he grows into it. He’s only 20. Best case scenario, he starts hitting 20/25 homers a year with plus shortstop defense, which is more of a 5/6 WAR player.”
In terms of projections, I find this to be both quite rational and very exciting. A plus-defensive shortstop posting 3 to 6 WAR a season? Oh, so early career Alex Rodriguez is back? Spectacular. Giving this one an BRASH because having a shortstop who rakes feels like the dream of every roster builder that so rarely comes true.
Poster Rumdoodle says:
“Ceiling: Hall of Fame
Floor: Colt Emerson, Los Angeles Angel of Anaheim, Disneyland, California”
Well, someone had to say it. By it, I mean the Hall of Fame. Now that’s a ceiling. A very high one. Combined with a floor that can only be described as a fate worse than death, I have no choice but to brand this take with a sizzling CLIFF LEE. The highest highs and lowest lows.
All right, wrapping it up here. Thanks to everyone who contributed their thoughts. Let’s cross our fingers for no IL trip for our boy Colt and go Mariners!
