As the Astros construct their 2026 team over the off-season, their assessment of promising rookies’ performances will be an important input. A.J. Blubaugh is one of the more promising 2025 rookie pitchers.
His 2025 pitching at the major league level definitely showed promise. But the sample size is small (32 innings) and his potential role for 2026 is not definite.
Blubaugh experienced a variety of pitching roles in 2025, ranging from spot starter to long reliever to middle reliever. By and large, he looked good and could serve in any of those pitching roles in 2026. Given probable free agent losses (Framber Valdez) and injury (Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, etc.), can the Astros count on Blubaugh as a rotation pitcher in 2026?
The scouting reports generally view Blubaugh as a future relief pitcher or perhaps a long reliever who sometimes pitches aa the No. 6 rotation pitcher. These opinions are based on Blubaugh’s erratic control / command, which presumably plays better out of the bullpen: For further elaboration, I’ll quote from the Fangraphs scouting report:
Blubaugh’s mom was a two-sport college athlete at Akron and AJ was a three-sport conference champ in high school before matriculating to UW-Milwaukee, where he would later become a seventh round pick. He reached Double-A in his first full pro season and was quickly bumped to Triple-A in 2024. Early in 2025, he was pressed into spot start duty due to the Astros’ litany of pitcher injuries; long-term, he projects as more of a good long reliever. His below-average command and painful-looking delivery are the primary drivers for this projection, with a 12.9% walk rate in Triple-A this year serving to further affirm it...
Blubaugh can benefit from being effectively wild, and he’ll throw either of those two secondary pitches to hitters of either handedness; they both finish all over the place, especially the changeup. A slow, mid-70s curveball acts as a show-me pitch to complete his repertoire. Again, Blubaugh should eventually settle into a meaningful role in Houston’s bullpen.
Of course, we can hope that Blubaugh exceeds his scouting predictions and can become a meaningful part of the Astros’ rotation. In his brief major league appearances, he pitched very well. And perhaps the most positive result is that his walk rate was much better than in the minor leagues. Blugaugh’s 3.09 BB/9 rate is slightly above average among rookie ML pitchers and much better than his 5.27 rate in AAA this year. Since the main reason for putting him in the reliever bin is control, hopefully this is a good sign that his control is improving to starter quality.
As I said, Blubaugh pitched well this year in the majors. Here is his ranking among the 120 or so ML rookie pitchers with at least 20 IP:
3d ranked ERA 1.69
12th ranked x-ERA 3.12
30th ranked K/9 9.84
22d ranked SIERA 3.54
26th ranked BotERA Stuff 3.68
44th ranked Stuff+ 105
It’s worth noting that Blubaugh’s small sample size is likely related to his unsustainable BABIP of .153, which likely means that his 3d ranked ERA is deceptively low. Consequently, the x-ERA of 3.12 is probably more representative of repeatable performance in his rookie season. His x-FIP is 4.10, which may provide a cautionary note on using this small sample.
Just out of curiosity, I compare Blubaugh’s regular season stats to the similar regular season stats for high level rookie starters we have seen in the 2025 post season. (Keep in mind that these were much more highly ranked pitching prospects.)
Misiorowski (Brewers) ERA+ 3.32 / SIERA 3.56 /11.86 K-9/ 4.25 BB-9
Schlittler (Yankees) ERA+ 3.98 / SIERA 3.84 /10.36 K-9/ 3.32 BB-9
Yesavage (Blue Jays) ERA+ 4.14 / SIERA 3.87 /10.29 K-9/ 4.50 BB-9
Blubaugh (Astros) ERA+ 3.12 / SIERA 3.54 /9.84 K-9/ 3.09 BB-9
Keep in mind it’s a small sample size, but Blubaugh’s regular season stats are reasonably within the range of these much discussed rookie starting pitchers. His K/9 is slightly lower but his BB/9 is slightly better. Looking at this comparison, Blubaugh looks like the type of young starter who could be projected for the 2026 rotation.
Whether Blubaugh is a reliever or starter in 2026 probably depends most on continuing his low walk rate in 2025. But, considering the higher minor league walk rates and the small ML sample size, it’s still an unknown factor. Despite his reasonably good Stuff+ ranking, Blubaugh’s Location+ was slightly below average (97), which sometimes indicates command may be an issue.
Depending on how spring training performance works out, I would tentatively pencil Blubaugh into a rotation spot. Because starting pitchers are more valuable, Blubaugh should be given a chance to find out if he can be an effective starting pitcher.
The alternative usage for Blubaugh in 2026 is long reliever. This could be part of a plan to use an opener frequently, with Blubaugh getting the “bulk” role. In fact, the Astros seemed to prefer Blubaugh in this role during 2025. Blubaugh was the bulk pitcher in the Sept. 28 game, the final game in which the Astros still had a theoretical chance to make the playoffs. (His line: 1 hit, 4 walks, 4 scoreless innings.) Supposedly the Astros did not like Blubaugh pitching more than twice through the batting order, which may be the reason for this preference.
Finally, Blubaugh could be transitioned to a higher leverage reliever (7th or 8th inning). He has the big arm to push his FB velocity to 99/100 in short spurts and appeared to respond well to pressure situations in 2025.
Thoughts?
