Two weeks of football and two losses for your Texans. Every victory and every loss comes with its own set of circumstances. The key is to take down the data and figure out the patterns in what you see. If you see the same things in defeat then you can avoid defeat by avoiding those things. There are other things that are more or less random, For instance, week one was largely on the defense where week two was more on the offense and special teams. However, we can begin to see some similarities when
we look at the numbers.
Of course, we will also do our customary good, bad, and ugly along with our special look at C.J. Stroud. The scoreboard says it was a 20-6 game, but watching it live and the numbers in the aftermath says it was a lot closer than what the final score would indicate. These games are usually decided by a play here and a key decision there. We will get to those as well.
The Numbers
Total Yards: Texans 78/374, Bengals 59/267
Rushing Yards: Texans 18/60, Bengals 23/85
Passing Yards: Texans 60/314, Bengals 36/182
Third Down Conversion: Texans 5/17, Bengals 5/15
Fourth Down Conversion: Texans 0/4, Bengals 0/0
Sacks: Texans 5, Bengals 4
Penalties: Texans 9/83, Bengals 12/78
Turnovers : Texans 0, Bengals 0
Time of Possession: Texans 29:11, Bengals 30:49
So, let’s get this straight. The Texans had more yards than the Bengals. They possessed the ball for more plays than the Bengals. They had more first downs than the Bengals. They got into the red zone more often than the Bengals (called penestrations back in the good ole days). They didn’t turn the ball over. Yet, somehow did they not only lose, but they got blown out on the scoreboard. The Texans have gained 755 yards of total offense and have produced 37 points. That is over 20 yards per point scored. We are going to keep a look at that number throughout the season as it the highest sum in the league and a good predictor of team success.
The Good
Will Anderson got paid a lot of money to play football this offseason and he showed up to play football on Sunday. He was second on the team with eight tackles including multiple tackles for loss in the running game. He also added his first sack of the season. Anderson and Danielle Hunter both got to Joe Burrow and Burrow was harassed all game including on his two touchdown passes. Those were plays that superior players make. The second touchdown had some shaky defense from Reed Blankenship, but it was still a good play where Burrow was chased and narrowly avoided the rush.
Great players make great plays. Great offenses will put some points on the board. When you hold a team like the Bengals to 20 points then you usually feel good about your chances. We can’t say great because this is still a defense that has generated zero turnovers. Sometimes a quarterback is just better and that might have been the case during these first two weeks, but the defense showed up on Sunday.
The Bad
It is hard to decide on what to peg here, so I will peg what is not a normal occurence for this team. Frank Bush might kill someone in practice this week if they look at him sideways. You had a muffed field goal and Fairbairn missed a 58 yarder. I’m not holding that one against him, but it is what it is. There was also a bad punt followed up by a targeting penalty that gave the Bengals the ball in Texans territory. This is a day they will want to have back, but in the grand scheme of things it wasn’t the reason why the Texans lost the football game.
The Ugly
I can see the wheels spinning in DeMeco Ryans head and that is the problem. On a key fourth and one play he decided to attempt a low percentage 58 yard field goal rather than go for it. The math geeks would all tell you to go for it. The math geeks haven’t tried to watch a Nick Caley offense try to gain a yard. This team was a combined five for 21 on third and fourth down. Sure, the Bengals defense is much improved, but this wasn’t the 2000 Ravens or the 1985 Bears out there. In the grand scheme of things this is probably a mediocre defense which is evidenced by the fact that the Texans gained nearly 400 yards in total offense without Nico Collins.
This qualifies under the ugly column because we’ve seen it all before. We get new linemen. We get a new featured back. After year two of the Ryans era we even got a new offensive coordinator. This team is still soft in short yardage situations. I honestly don’t know how it can be fixed and whether it could during the year. I’m not happy that Ryans decided to kick in that scenario, but I can’t be mad at him either. He’s watched this team fail repeatedly in short yardage and had just seen them fail on third and one the previous play. Who wouldn’t be gun shy after watching that yet again?
Focus on Stroud
There are a couple of things I need to say first. First, this is one data point out of 17. No one should make any declarative statements based on one or two data points. Secondly, we live in a hot take world where people want to go with superlative statements one way or another. That is radically inappropriate in this case. Based on the two data points, Stroud has shown himself to be a good NFL quarterback. He definitely should be on the the 32 starters and would start for probably half of the teams in the league.
All that being said, these first two weeks showed us something up close and personal. Two of the QBs that are considered among the elite made plays that Stroud simply did not make. We can blame the offensive line, receivers, offensive coordinator and the alignment of the planets if we wish. Some of that is valid and that is why these discussions are a lot more nuanced than we let on. Elite quarterbacks make plays to win games. Good quarterbacks don’t. It really is that simple.
What makes life hard is that we have seen Stroud make plays before. We have seen those elite guys fail to make plays. Nothing is ever black and white. We are looking at rates of success and those guys just make those plays more often than Stroud. Again, we can argue the whys and what fors if we like. There are always reasons, but if you are going to pay a guy 60 million then he needs to be one of those guys that makes plays to get his team over the hump. When he is playing good football, Stroud manages a game well, but he hasn’t been that guy since his rookie season. Sometimes it really is that simple.
