There have been some high highs and low lows for Jac Caglianone since being drafted by the Royals. He blitzed through the minors spending just 29 games in A ball, 38 in AA, and 12 in AAA before debuting with the big league club last June. That debut did not follow the stratospheric trajectory of his minor league experience. This season, Jac has gotten another chance to show that he belongs. So far, he is taking advantage of it.
Caglianone’s 2026 numbers are not going to jump off the page at anyone.
His line of .263/.344/.425 is definitely in the good-but-not-great category. However, it is leaps and bounds better than his line of .157/.237/.295 last year.
These raw numbers are not what I am starting to get excited about, though the on-base percentage is much higher so far than I was expecting. It is the underlying numbers, both offensive and defensive, that suggest he is developing into a solid everyday player. Here are his Baseball Savant percentiles in 2025 vs. 2026 to help illustrate what I mean.
Jac has improved his overall skillset almost across the entire board. He is still a flawed player, mostly because of hi chase rate, whiff rate, and K%. However, he has elite exit velocity and is now getting to it at a much higher frequency. That has pushed his expected stats up into the area where it looks like he is going to be a well above-league-average hitter.
On top of that, his fielding is much, much better than last year. The arm strength was always there, the accuracy is starting to come too, so his throwing looks like it is going to be quite the weapon in right field. A full offseason of preparation to play outfield has also improved his range value immensely and he looks way more comfortable running around in the grass. We do not have a large enough sample size to say he is an above-average defender yet, but he has been so much better than last year that I am optimistic he will, at the very least, not be a liability out there. He even improved his sprint speed over last year, though that is more on a percentile basis than actually changing the top end speed. He is never going to be a burner running down balls deep in the gaps at that size.
Caglianone’s Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which evaluates offensive production based on actual outcomes, is encouraging so far. He ranks 122nd out of 274 MLB hitters with a wOBA of .330. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) – a metric that estimates offensive production based on quality of contact, strikeouts, and walks – is .341, ranking him as well above-average among MLB hitters.
That expected value is predicated on how hard he hits the ball plus being able to barrel the ball much more often than last year. Going from a 12% barrel rate to 17% may not sound like a ton to most people, but that is a 42.5% improvement and enough to put him in the elite. We knew he could hit the ball hard and now he is accessing that ability much more frequently.
The main reason he has not posted elite numbers yet has to do with his chase rate, swing and miss rate, and his launch angle. He is chasing less than last year, so that is exciting even if he is still below-average. This might mean he will progress to a higher peak as he swings at better pitches, but for now he is still missing and striking out too much. The launch angle is the one that is keeping the balls from leaving the park in droves. A miniscule 3.8 degree launch angle is just not where you want a power hitter to be – Eric Hosmer struggled with this during his career. For Caglianone to become the 40+ home run monster we all want him to be, the ball has to get in the air more.
If you chart every ball he has put in play so far, the trend line is slightly positively sloped, but modestly enough that without the line it is hard to tell any trend at all. For Cags to become the Royals’ fearsome middle of the order slugger, this needs to have way fewer negative angles and many more in that 10 to 40 degree range.
As Jac is right now, he is on pace to end the season around 2-3 Wins Above Replacement. That means he is playing as an average-to-slightly above-average everyday major leaguer, despite the flaws. He just turned 23 a few months ago and his progression, plus his power potential, indicates that he is almost certainly going to be a good player. It looks like he may have already surpassed his lower-end threshold.
If he is now an above-average hitter, and an average-ish defensive right fielder, then he is a solid player the Royals can depend on for the next half decade. But he has to get the K% below 30% to pull that off. His ceiling is still very high, and I think we have a decent chance of witnessing something special with the combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen, and Jac. After last season, Cags was the one that seemed like it just might not happen, but now I am fairly optimistic he is one of the cornerstones that this team can build on.
