The Tigers are the presumptive favorite to win the American League Central in 2026. After an offseason that saw the rest of the division make relatively little noise in free agency, the Tigers landed one of the biggest fish on the market, catapulting themselves atop every predictor’s division favorite, but is there trouble in paradise?
ADDITIONS
Offensively, the Tigers were mostly quiet. Detroit retained Gleyber Torres who accepted his qualifying offer to remain a Tiger, and then they nabbed short side platoon
outfielder Austin Slater on a minor league deal.
On the pitching side of things, they were much louder. The Tigers went out and made upgrades to their rotation and bullpen, bringing back 43 year-old Justin Verlander for what seems to be a swan song in a Hall of Fame career. A late Spring injury to Troy Melton has made Verlander more of a necessity than depth. However, their big spending came by way of Framber Valdez, an infamous ghoul in the nightmares of Guardians fans, who inked a three year, 115 million-dollar contract with the Tigers earlier this year.
Detroit re-signed Kyle Finnegan to a two-year deal and also went out and nabbed another potential future Hall of Famer in the twilight of his career in Kenley Jansen to shore up the back of their bullpen. Jansen, 38, is coming off a solid season for the Angels, racking up 29 saves, putting him just 24 away from the all elusive 500 Save Club. Jansen saw diminished stuff in 2025 while posting career worst hard hit rates, strikeout rates, and home run rates.
SUBTRACTIONS
Detroit didn’t lose much at all in the grand scheme of things. Chris Paddack signed with the Marlins after a brutal second half of 2025 with Detroit, Tommy Kahnle signed with Boston, and Paul Sewald went back to Arizona. Suffice to say, Detroit upgraded significantly across the board with their pitching.
STORYLINES
THE SKUBAL SAGA
There are three main questions for the Detroit Tigers in 2026, and they all revolve around one man. Are they willing to pay Tarik Skubal what he wants? If they’re doing what they’re projected to and leading the division by the trade deadline, how aggressive are they in pursuing offensive upgrades? Lastly, what if they underwhelm?
That first question…we seem to have an answer already. The aforementioned upgrades to the pitching staff have a top tier frontline duo with aces Skubal and Valdez leading the charge, but with Detroit willing to pay big money in the short-term for Valdez with the way the contract is laid out, the writing seems to be on the wall for Skubal despite his best intentions of wanting to stay. Valdez will sit at roughly 36.5 million dollar AAV with a 2028 player option and 2029 mutual option, and, per Spotrac, Valdez will be lighter on the books in 2026 at just $22.8M before vaulting up to a price tag north of $40M in 2027, coinciding with the likely departure of Tarik Skubal.
The second question becomes paramount as Detroit’s pitching should lead them through the AL Central with inadequate pushback, so for this answer, we’re operating under the assumption that they do just that. With one of the deeper farm systems in baseball rich with bats, Detroit has a chance to make a big splash for a big bat this coming deadline to vault themselves into serious World Series discussions. That being said, even if they played their hand ultra aggressively, Kevin McGonigle is likely off the table. McGonigle has become a consensus top three prospect in all of baseball with the best bat across the entire minor leagues. He will not only not play a part in any trade talks, but he likely factors into Detroit’s success in 2026 in a big way, most likely at shortstop.
From there, the big trade pieces immediately become centerfielder Max Clark and shortstop Bryce Rainer. Among the very best prospects under 21 in all of baseball, no team in the sport outside of the Dodgers wield chips with that kind of power. Detroit will likely be looking for outfield upgrades, and they boast plenty of other pieces worthy of luring in such as catching prospects Josue Briceño and Thayron Liranzo as well as infielders Jordan Yost, Max Anderson, and Hao-Yu Lee. On top of that, a necessity to be aggressive stems from the extreme likelihood that Skubal doesn’t re-sign, and they’ll want to push all these chips into the middle of the table for one big run.
Lastly, what does this look like if they falter? Skubal’s clock to clock out is only winding down. Should Detroit sit around .500, struggling to grasp a stronghold of the AL Central or worse come the end of July, that ticking clock begins to sound more and more like a time bomb as the trade deadline approaches, and whichever direction they go will define their front office’s tenure.
A Skubal trade, after signing Framber Valdez and bringing Verlander back for One Last Ride™, would signify a waiving of the white flag for 2026 and mark a colossal failure after already failing to capitalize on their success both last offseason and last deadline before their embarrassing collapse cost them the AL Central. Yes, they were a game away from the ALCS, but coming from a Guardians fan, that rebuttal isn’t good enough and never has been.
Every team has needs it has to be willing to address, and while GM Jeff Greenberg and President of Baseball Operations sat on their hands and made small, cost-friendly moves to add depth to their pitching staff (Finnegan, Morton, Paddack, Sewald, Montero) last deadline, it was their offense that fell off a cliff after signs of a nose dive were met with blind eyes from their front office. That can’t happen anymore if Detroit has its eyes on bigger prizes with such little time to reach them with their best player. While they have built a strong farm system, nothing is ever a guarantee, so I would expect Detroit to be aggressive at the deadline regardless of their positioning in the standings.
LINEUP
*fWAR projections per FanGraphs
24.8 projected fWAR — 15th in MLB
C: Dillon Dingler (3.0 in 429 PA) // Jake Rogers (1.1 in 192 PA)
— Dingler’s emergence for Detroit was a game changer for them in ‘25. Posting a 109 wRC+ with strong defense, Dingler’s 4.1 fWAR was the best from a Tigers’ backstop in over a decade.
1B: Spencer Torkelson (1.9 fWAR in 637 PA)
— Torkelson put together a mostly complete season in ‘25, but as his power production waned towards the end of the season’s Detroit’s as a team did as well. He’s become good for 30 home runs a season when healthy, and he will continue to project towards that in 2026.
2B: Gleyber Torres (3.1 fWAR in 658 PA)
— Retaining Gleyber Torres was vital to Detroit’s offense. It kept them from having to throw everything at Kevin McGonigle right away while simultaneously allowing them to throw everything at Kevin McGonigle while protecting him. Torres had a rough second half, but the bat is strong enough to hover above 110 wRC+.
SS: Kevin McGonigle (3.3 fWAR in 532 PA) // Javier Báez (0.5 fWAR in 420 PA)
— McGonigle is not guaranteed an Opening Day roster spot, but he will assume the lion’s share of reps at shortstop when he is eventually called up possibly in May (expect some service time shenanigans here). FanGraphs believes his bat will play right out of the chute, and I do as well. He’s as polished of an all-around hitting prospect as there’s been in a little bit and will help lead Detroit to a likely spot in the Postseason.
3B: Colt Keith (2.1 fWAR in 497 PA) // Zach McKinstry (1.1 fWAR in 406 PA)
— Keith likely assumes third base and will need to turn his bat back around after being one of the key cogs to Detroit’s collapse in the second half of ‘25 before finding himself on the IL. McKinstry will likely bounce around the field where needed. Similar to Keith, McKinstry struggled mightily in the second half, watching his OPS drop 180 points. Despite that, he’s made himself a valuable utility piece for the Tigers.
LF: Riley Greene (3.5 fWAR in 651 PA)
— Greene’s All-Star 2025 campaign saw him receive MVP votes for the first time as well as his first Silver Slugger award. He also led the AL in strikeouts while watching his slugging percentage fall from .544 in the first half to .415 in the second half. Greene has to find consistency in the middle of Detroit’s lineup in order for them to be a real AL threat.
CF: Parker Meadows (1.5 fWAR in 420 PA) // Javier Báez
— Center field is a major question mark for the Tigers right now. Meadows put together a good 2024 (110 wRC+) after being called up, and expectations were high rolling into ‘25. Injuries and poor performance saw him go from 2.2 fWAR in 298 PA in ‘24 to 0.2 fWAR in 213 PA in ‘25. Meadows grades out as a good defender in center field, and if his bat can creep back up towards league average, Detroit has a quality center fielder here. Baez will likely see more time here in platoon matchups.
RF: Wenceel Pérez (0.8 fWAR in 371 PA) // Matt Vierling (0.4 fWAR in 280 PA)
— Detroit will continue to roll with their platoon-dependent outfield, and it will continue to be an area of needed improvement.
DH: Kerry Carpenter (1.7 fWAR in 490 PA) // Colt Keith // Jahmai Jones (0.4 fWAR in 133 PA)
— Detroit got a lot out of their Carpenter platoons in 2025 and were a big reason for their success through October. Carpenter will of course see time in the outfield, primarily right field, but his continued struggles in the field lean to more of a DH role. His continued problems against lefties led to a Jahmai Jones resurgence in 2025, and he will look to follow up his fantastic 159 wRC+ as a short-side platoon option in ‘26.
ROTATION
*fWAR projections per FanGraphs
ROTATION: 17.4 projected fWAR — 2nd in MLB
SP1: Tarik Skubal (2.67 ERA, 6.3 fWAR across 200 IP)
SP2: Framber Valdez (3.41 ERA, 3.6 fWAR across 195 IP)
SP3: Jack Flaherty (4.01 ERA, 2.5 fWAR across 160 IP)
SP4: Casey Mize (4.05 ERA, 2.0 fWAR across 145 IP)
SP5: Justin Verlander (4.31 ERA, 1.7 fWAR across 141 IP)
Depth: Drew Anderson (3.95 ERA, 0.7 fWAR across 82 IP)
Injured: Troy Melton (4.03 ERA, 0.3 fWAR across 52 IP)
BULLPEN: 2.7 projected fWAR — 18th in MLB
CP: Kenley Jansen (4.10 ERA, 0.3 fWAR across 60 IP)
Will Vest (3.29 ERA, 1.2 fWAR across 68 IP)
Tyler Holton (3.65 ERA, 0.4 fWAR across 72 IP)
Kyle Finnegan (3.92 ERA, 0.3 fWAR across 64 IP)
Keider Montero (4.40 ERA, 0.2 fWAR across 55 IP)
Brenan Hanifee (3.91 ERA, 0.2 fWAR across 58 IP)
Brant Hurter (3.75 ERA, 0.1 fWAR across 52 IP)
Beau Brieske (4.55 ERA, 0.0 fWAR across 50 IP)
Enmanuel De Jesus (4.33 ERA, 0.0 fWAR across 42 IP)
Bailey Horn (4.40 ERA, 0.0 fWAR across 32 IP)
