Purdue’s Round of 64 (that’s what it’s called these days…Correct?) opponent, Queens University of Charlotte, out of the A-SUN, led by coach Grant Leonard, will make its first trip to the NCAA Tournament in only its fourth season in Division 1 basketball.
I covered their roster, broke down the schedule, and reviewed their results earlier this week (You can find that article HERE).
Today, I’m taking a look at Queens’ analytics from KenPom and will provide a few thoughts at the end, for what very little
they are worth.
Key Analytics
(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / ASun Rank in ())
KenPom Ranking – 183
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency: 115.8 (77) – ASun Only: 122.9 (1)
Adjusted Tempo: 69.6 (64) – ASun Only: 70.3 (2)
Average Possession Length: 16 (28) – ASun Only: 15.9 (1)
Effective Field Goal%: 56.6 (15) – ASun Only: 57.8 (2)
Offensive Rebound%: 30.4 (184) – ASun: 29.7 (7)
Three Point%: 35.9 (67) – ASun: 35.8 (8)
Two Point %: 59 (13) – Big 10 Only: 61.4 (1)
Defense
Adjusted Efficiency: 103.9 (74) – ASun Only: 112.6 (6)
Adjusted Tempo: 65.2 (299) – ASun Only: 70.3 (2)
Average Possession Length: 19.1 (364) – ASun Only: 18.3 (11)
Effective Field Goal%: 50.8 (148) – ASun Only: 53.3 (4)
Offensive Rebound%: 34.3 (263) – ASun Only: 29.3 (6)
Three Point%: 33.3 (141) – ASun Only: 34.8 (6)
Two Point %: 51.4 (159) – ASun Only: 54 (4)
Key Matchups
Disclaimer
These are tough to write because I want to highlight what Queens does well, but at the same time, it should not matter. The gulf in talent and experience is so vast that any upset would have to come from circumstances I can’t anticipate. Basically, when I’m talking about Queens, tack on the phrase … but it shouldn’t matter … on the end of the sentence.
Offense
Adjusted Efficiency
Purdue Offense: 131.6 (1)
Queens Defense: 117.2 (320)
Thoughts:
I mean, come on; you’ve got a historically good offense against one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball. I’m not sure what more I need to say. The only team in this game that can hold Purdue under 100 points is Purdue. If the Boilermakers hit their open shots, Queens is going to have to score 100+ points to win this game, and they haven’t shown any signs of doing that against major conference foes.
Wake Forest put up 111 points on Queens, led by Myles Colvin’s 33. The Demon Deacons went 19-25 from 2 (76%) and 17-33 from 3 (52%). Wake had the 68th most efficient offense in the nation; Purdue has the best. I’ll let you connect the dots.
Defense
Effective Field Goal %
Queens Offense: 56.6
Purdue Defense: 52.3
Three Point %
Queens Offense: 35.9 (67)
Purdue Defense: 52.3 (233)
Two Point %
Queens Offense: 59 (13)
Purdue Defense: 53.1 (244)
Thoughts:
I usually stick with one area, but in this case, all three of these go together. What this team lacks in defense, they make up for with an outstanding offense. They play fast, get up as many shots as possible, and hit those shots at an impressive clip.
They take 46.8% of their shots from behind the arc, which spreads the floor and allows their guards and wings to get downhill. Forward Avante Parker shoots 70% from two on solid volume, and most of those makes come on drives and put-backs around the basket. He draws fouls, and Trey commits fouls, especially early in the game. Look for Queens to try to isolate Trey on the perimeter and see Parker’s ability to drive put enough pressure on Trey to put him on the bench.
This is a drive-and-kick offense that attempts to collapse the defense and create open 3s. As always, Purdue needs to remember that 3-pointers are worth more than 2-pointers, and not to over-help and leave shooters open on the perimeter. Queens’ freshman point guard Jordan Watford’s 34.9 assist rate is 30th in the nation, and his 6.7 fouls drawn over 40 minutes is 29th. That’s what I would expect from a good drive and kick point guard, CJ Cox will have his hands full with the lanky, 6’5” guard.
Overall
In theory, Queens can score. They put up 80 points on a solid Arkansas defense earlier in the season, so maybe it’s more than a theory.
The problem is, they can’t stop anyone. They scored 80 points and still lost by 28 to the Razorbacks. They’re going to ask some questions of the Boilermaker defense, but at the end of the day, they’re going to need more help than Purdue can give them in this game.
The good news is that this one might be a little more fun to watch than most 2-15 matchups. I expect them to come out, push the pace, and keep swinging for 40 minutes. Grant Leonard is a great offensive coach, and these guys believe in their system.
They won’t roll over, even if/when the score gets out of hand.
