D-backs @ Rockies discussion

DENVER , CO - JULY 20: An RTD shuttle drives on the 16th Street Mall in Denver, Colorado on Monday, July 20, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post) | Denver Post via Getty Images Today’s Lineups DIAMONDBACKS ROCKIES Ildemaro Vargas – 2B Jake McCarthy – CF Ketel Marte – DH Connor Norby – 2B

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Today’s Lineups

DIAMONDBACKS	ROCKIES
Ildemaro Vargas – 2B	Jake McCarthy – CF
Ketel Marte – DH	Connor Norby – 2B
Gabriel Moreno – C	TJ Rumfield – 1B
Geraldo Perdomo – SS	Hunter Goodman – C
Nolan Arenado – 3B	Cole Carrigg – SS
Jordan Lawlar – CF	Kyle Karros – 3B
Corbin Carroll – RF	Mickey Moniak – DH
Tim Tawa – LF	Troy Johnston – RF
Jose Fernandez – 1B	Zac Veen – LF

Michael Soroka – RHP	Kyle Freeland – LHP

We’re now into the final week of the season, and we are still playing somewhat meaningful baseball. Admittedly, Baseball Reference gives us just a 3.2% of making the post-season. That seems about right, because we need help elsewhere: either from the Brewers, who are visiting the Phillies (and down 3-1 in the fifth), or the Dodgers, who are being visited by the Rockies. Yeah. It does not do my soul good having to cheer for either Milwaukee or Los Angeles, but that is the situation in which we find

ourselves. Though if Arizona doesn’t do its part, it won’t matter for much longer into the week.

Here’s how our playoff odds compare to each season at this point (156 games in) in the Mike Hazen era. I’m going off Baseball Reference, because it’s a hell of a lot easier to see the numbers there!

2026: 3.1%
2025: 15.8%
2024: 55.8%
2023: 80.2%
2022: <0.1%
2021: <0.1%
2020: <0.1%
2019: <0.1%
2018: <0.1%
2017: >99.9%

I’m not quite sure why Baseball Reference is reluctant to commit to a cold, hard zero or one hundred percent. Perhaps they’re holding out hope that MLB might find the Dodgers in breach of financial regulations, pull a Glasgow Rangers on them, and send the franchise to start again in A-ball. Which would open up a playoff spot for the Diamondbacks, yay! But if you don’t think that Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo have done a much better job of figuring things out of late, the above chart should kinda put things into perspective. Admittedly, the recent trend is down, but the final week this year is still better than any one in the dark days of 2018-2022.

This will be Michael Soroka’s fourth start of the year against the Rockies, and he has done well. While only 1-0 with a pair of no-decisions, he has allowed only three runs over sixteen innings against them. The one start at Coors was also his one win, pitching 5.2 innings of two-run ball. Meanwhile, Arizona lit up Kyle Freeland in May at Chase Field, torching him for seven earned runs and chasing him in the fourth inning. Here’s to more of that tonight from our hitters, though the usual concerns about any lead at Coors will naturally apply.