It’s been a roller coaster of a season for the Wildcats. After a remarkable four game win streak, Northwestern has lost back-to-back games for the first time all year and are looking to bounce back. But the job won’t be easy, as the ’Cats are playing their second ranked opponent of the season in No. 18 Michigan. Does Northwestern have a chance of finally clinching that bowl game this week? Will the Wolverines prove too much to handle? Here are the factors that will decide the game.
Why Northwestern will beat Michigan
Preston Stone stays clean
This game will
be defined by the battle that takes place in the trenches. Michigan’s defensive line is one of the best in the nation, and it knows how to get to an opposing quarterback. The Wolverines’ 24 sacks on the season ranks 25th in the country and tied for fourth in the B1G.
But looking deeper, one can see that Michigan’s defense is extremely reliant on its ability to generate sacks. Michigan only managed to record one sack across the two games that it lost this season. In those games Michigan allowed 27.5 points per game, a 10 point increase from its season average of 17.2.
Northwestern is uniquely positioned to stop Michigan’s pass rush. Preston Stone has only been sacked 12 times on the season. Michigan has only faced one team better than Northwestern at keeping its quarterback clean (USC), and the Wolverines generated zero sacks and allowed 31 points.
The NU O-line has been a bright spot all year, and if it continues its stellar play, the Wildcats will be able to take away the negative plays that Michigan relies on so heavily.
Underwood under pressure (slow start)
It wouldn’t make much sense, from a statistics standpoint, to expect the NU defensive line to get after Underwood, as it hasn’t happened much all year.
What can be expected, however, is Michigan coming out of the gates flat. The Wolverines have punted on five of their seven opening drives against power four opponents and only scored one touchdown. In most games, Michigan doesn’t put points on the board until its third drive of the game.
The last time Northwestern took three drives to score its first points in a game was week three against Oregon. If one team is going to score first, it’ll probably be the Wildcats.
Additionally, NU’s offense thrives on momentum. “Chicago’s Big Ten Team” has recorded consecutive scoring dives in every game this season and managed back-to-back touchdown drives in each of its last two games.
If Northwestern scores earlier than Michigan, there is a good chance that Michigan could spend large portions of the game playing from behind. This is where Bryce Underwood could be put under serious pressure.
Teams that are trailing often lean on the passing game to try and get themselves back in the game. Michigan is the furthest thing from an air-raid offense, ranking 125th out of 136 FBS teams in passing attempts on the year. As a true first-year, Underwood has certainly shown flashes, but he’s also put up 233 total passing yards and one INT over his last two games.
Asking a young and still unproven quarterback to go on the road and win a game against a top-25 passing defense is far from ideal. Yet if current trends continue, Northwestern might be able to force Michigan into exactly that situation.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Michigan
Tough matchup
King Miller joined the list of players to rattle off 100 yards on the ground against the ’Cats on Friday, constantly moving the chains for USC thanks to his eight and a half yards per carry. It has been made evident many times this season: Northwestern is not good against the run.
Enter the Michigan Wolverines, the best running team that Northwestern will face all year.
Even with star back Justice Haynes (who is top-five in the country in both yards per game and yards per carry) out for Saturday’s game, Michigan should have no problem running the ball. Jordan Marshall has recorded 100+ yards on the ground in each of his last three games and averages 5.9 yards per carry on the year.
Even Underwood poses a threat, with the first-year having a 100-yard rushing performance under his belt this season and four scores on the ground.
Even if Michigan falls behind in the game, it might just keep running the ball anyway. The Wolverines have six rushing touchdowns of 50+ yards this season, they can generate explosive plays on the ground better than anyone.
Meet me at our spot (the A-gap)
As mentioned earlier, the matchup that will define his game will be NU’s offensive line going up against Michigan’s defensive front. The Wildcats will rely on the run game, and their O-line throughout the game. It seems as though Evanston runs on Komolafe at the moment, and there’s no way NU wins without Komolafe having an efficient day.
But the Wolverines have been stifling opposing run games all year. The Wolverines have allowed 900 rushing yards all year (100.2 per game) and only give up three yards a carry, putting them top-15 in the country in both metrics.
Komolafe is able to generate explosive run plays at an elite rate, but Michigan is well equipped to stop that as well, only allowing 25 carries to go for 10+ yards against it, the 11th best mark in all of FBS.
Caleb Komolafe has been the most important player on Northwestern’s offense all year, but with Michigan’s track record of shutting down top B1G backs like Jonah Coleman and Emmett Johnson, the “The Beast” could struggle, and if that happens it’s even more likely that Northwestern won’t win.
Home away from home
Northwestern went 4-1 in games at the lakeside stadium this year, going 2-1 in conference play. On the road the ’Cats haven’t been quite as good, losing three out of four. Thankfully, the Wildcats are listed as home this week.
But that’s the thing, they are “listed” at home. Wrigley is not the lakeside stadium, and Michigan fans travel extremely well. Given the relative proximity of Chicago to Ann Arbor compared to Michigan’s other road trips, and the presence of Big Noon Kickoff at the game, the Wolverine faithful will be out in full force on Saturday. There’s a high chance the atmosphere within the stadium is more reminiscent of a road matchup than a Wildcat home game.
Yes, Michigan’s only two losses on the year have come on the road, but Wrigley won’t provide the same hostile environment the Wolverines faced at the Coliseum or at Oklahoma. The game being played at Wrigley, while admittedly really cool, does take away NU’s home field.
The bottom line
Usually I’d attempt to dress up this conclusion a bit more, but this time I’m going to get straight to the point. For a large majority of the season, I’ve had this marked as the least winnable game on Northwestern’s schedule, as I just don’t think the matchup favors the Wildcats. I don’t see how Michigan’s run game gets slowed down, and I think that Michigan’s defense has a legitimate chance to slow down Komolafe. The Wolverines have 50 TFLs that’s a top-15 rank. Derrick Moore has been an absolute terror on the defensive line.
Now, I said a lot of the same things before the Wildcats took on Penn State, and we all know how that went, so I am not completely without optimism. Again, Michigan thrives on negative plays, and Preston Stone has gotten better at limiting those as the season has gone on.
But ultimately, the Wolverines are fighting for their playoff lives here, and I unfortunately think they’ll leave Wrigley victorious.
