From 2013 onward, third base for the Rockies had been synonymous with only two names: Nolan Arenado and then Ryan McMahon. Because of those two, Colorado has had a Gold Glove finalist at the hot corner each of the past 13 seasons. It has been one of the most stable positions in the entire league.
This offseason there was uncertainty at the position for the first time in ages. The team seems intent to give Kyle Karros the opportunity to take the spot and see if he can run with it.
The (likely) starter
Karros had succeeded
at every level of the minors on his journey up the organizational ladder despite middling scouting reports from most public evaluators. His first taste of the majors looked more like the player scouts had said he’d be — a good defender with a second division bat — instead of the player he’d performed as in the minors — a gold glover and MVP — but he came into the spring with a plan:
“I think going into this season, I know what I have works. I’ve seen it work at every level, so just being more convicted with that and staying true to myself each and every day.”
That restraint in avoiding overreaction to a little over a month’s worth of big league at-bats says some interesting things about Karros as a person. It may prove to be a mistake in the end, however, the early returns do seem promising. In a sample size even smaller than his struggles from last year, he has an OPS well over 1.000 so far this spring.
That high mark won’t continue over a full season even in the best-case scenario, but it has been enough to already make him the presumptive Opening Day starter at third base.
Given that opportunity, he’ll be able to continue showing off the aspect of his game that has never really been in question: his glove. Last year, Karros accumulated three Defensive Runs Saved and four Outs Above Average, which were tied for 19th and 9th among all third baseman despite him having played only 43 games.
That standout defense should give him a long leash should his offensive struggles resurface during the regular season.
The backups
The highest profile bat brought in this offseason, Willi Castro has had a close to league average wRC+ over the past three seasons (107 in ’23, 106 in ‘24, and then 92 last year). It’s his defensive versatility, however, that most makes him stand out.
Having made starts at almost every position on the field he provides plenty of options for Warren Schaeffer regardless of how the rest of the roster shakes out. He’ll be playing every day somewhere, and even if that’s not third, he’ll still sometimes be called upon to slide over when Karros needs a day off.
Ryan Ritter’s first taste of the majors was rough. He dealt with a finger injury that kept him out for roughly a month, and when he was on the field, he struggled to the tune of a 64 wRC+ and a 29.5% strikeout rate. Those both would have been bottom ten in the league if he had played enough to qualify.
Coming into camp, it was a reasonable question whether or not he’d make the Opening Day roster. So far he has hit well, and the coaching staff has been impressed by his work at third base and in left field. That extra flexibility gives him a real shot at sliding into a big league utility role.
In many ways Castro is a solid comp of what a good outcome for Ritter would look like — both are jack of all trades, master of none style players. Not being especially bad at any aspect of the game doesn’t make Castro a star, but it has allowed him to accrue 5.9 fWAR since the start of 2023.
If Ritter can become that type of player, he’ll be forcing his way into a starting role.
Depth options
Likely due to the lack of turnover at the position over the course of the past decade, the Rockies entered the offseason with very little in the way of realistic major league depth at third.
Tyler Freeman has played the position at times in the past and could do so again in a pinch but he’s never graded out particularly well over there. He’s an acceptable option if needed but they’d rather not need to use him in that role.
Likely as a response to this lack of depth, the front office brought in a couple of veterans on minor league deals this offseason in the form of Nicky Lopez and Vimael Machín. Neither is likely to make the roster but would be the first called upon to fill in should injuries change the current paradigm.
Lopez in particular has established a track record as a good fielder capable of playing any infield position as long as you know not to expect much out of him at the plate.
On the farm
Third base is usually one of the landing spots for a player with a good arm that moved off of shortstop because they didn’t have the range to cover the middle infield. As such, it’s hard to determine who will be play third in the majors solely by looking at where they play currently.
Below are the Rockies prospects most likely to end up at third by the time their minor league careers are over:
- Ethan Hedges (No. 29 PuRP): A two-way player in college, the Rockies drafted Hedges in the third round last year. He grades well defensively but it remains to be seen if focusing solely on being a hitter can allow him to improve on a currently fringey offensive projection.
- Ethan Holliday (No. 2 PuRP): Entering the system as the number four overall pick last summer, the youngest Holliday has a long way to go before it becomes clear exactly what type of player he’ll end up being. Currently a shortstop with immense power but strikeout concerns, if he ends up not being able to stick at short he is expected to be able to find a home at third.
- Wilder Dalis (No. 24 PuRP): Coming off a couple good years between the DSL and ACL, Dalis made his debut in Low A during his age 18 season. He’s played primarily at third base but it remains to be seen if that’s where he ends up. Thus far in his minor league career the bat has impressed for someone without a notable signing bonus.
It’s also possible, but not likely, that Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) could be given another shot at third since the new front office doesn’t view him strictly as a first baseman.
Overall, this group has impact potential, but a lot of questions. Further, it will be a long time before those questions are able to be answered.
Closing thoughts
What you think about the Rockies third base situation almost entirely depends on what you think of Kyle Karros.
Do you buy into his minor league performance and hot spring? Well, then maybe by next year we’ll all be saying that the Rockies have the position locked down for the foreseeable future.
Do you think the scouting reports and his month of play in the bigs last year are more indicative of the player he’ll be long term? In that case, third base (unless Ryan Ritter happens to break out) is in for a transitional period that may well last a couple full years.
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