When | 7:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | SEC Network+
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
Kenpom prediction | Mizzou -24
ESPN win probability | 98.4% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson
II (JR, 13.2 PPG)
G: Sebastian Mack (JR, 10.0 PPG)
F: Jevon Porter (SR, 6.0 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 18.0 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 8.8 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man:
Jacob Crews (GR, 12.6 PPG)South Dakota
G: Shey Eberwein (R-SO, 10.4 PPG)
G: Jordan Crawford (JR, 9.2 PPG)
G: Isaac Bruns (JR, 17.4 PPG)
G: Evan Anderson (R-FR, 4.4 PPG)
C: Cameron Fens (SR, 8.2 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Uzziah Buntyn (FR, 10.0 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know South Dakota: an average team from a fun league
From Sam Snelling’s preseason preview:
“[Coyotes head coach Eric] Peterson spent his first two seasons building the program up and last year had something of a breakthrough. He broke through by playing fast on offense, with the second fastest offense tempo in the country, even faster than Alabama. In his first three seasons he owns just one top 100 win, a neutral site win over BYU, a game where the Coyotes shot over 50% from three and the Cougars shot just 21%. Going a bit further, Peterson has won just 2 non-conference road games since taking over, beating Western Michigan and Western Illinois. And the collective work against Power Conference teams is an 0-5 record with an average loss of 22.2 points per game.”
The Coyotes (pronounced ki-yotes, like the high school in Varsity Blues) lost star Chase Forte to the transfer portal from a squad that went 19-14 with a winning record in conference play last year, but return All-Summit League performer Isaac Bruns. The 6-foot-5 junior averaged 14.6 points per game last season and has increased his scoring early this year as the focal point of the South Dakota offense.
Peterson added Jordan Crawford from Eastern Kentucky and Ethan Kizer from South Alabama in the offseason, alongside SLU’s Josiah Dotzler, who was expected to play a key role for the team before tearing his ACL. But the mass of the team’s production has come from returners and true freshman. A trio of true freshman — Uzziah Buntyn, Vince Buzelis, Jesse McIntosh — have combined to score an average of 26.8 points per night.
That production has helped USD to a 3-2 start to the season with recent wins over Southern Indiana and Western Michigan. The Coyotes lost their opening two matchup, an 81-79 overtime loss to Utah Tech and 92-76 defeat at Creighton, but have won three straight with the help of a solid offense.
South Dakota is your average Summit League team in multiple ways. The team was picked to finish in the middle of the conference’s preseason poll and is currently fifth of the nine Summit League teams in KenPom’s rankings. USD also shares a similar style of play to a lot of the league’s squads: fast-paced and exciting offense paired with a porous defense. South Dakota currently sits at 316th on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and has finished below 332nd in that category each of the last three years.
3 Keys to the Game
Stop Isaac Bruns
Mizzou has gotten burned on defense by a couple of strong individual performances this season, including 24 points with five made triples from Luke Almodovar for SEMO and 31 points from VMI’s TJ Johnson. The latter’s offensive outburst allowed the Keydets to keep the margin within 10 at halftime before they trailed off in the second half. South Dakota has some solid depth and a lot of good role players, but Bruns is easily the biggest threat to watch for Thursday. Stop him and getting the win becomes significantly less complicated.
Control the boards
Mizzou has won the three games where it controlled the rebounding battle against mid-major opponents by an average of 22 points. The other game? An extremely uncomfortable 89-84 win over SEMO. The Coyotes run with a four guard lineup, but the fifth starter is 7-foot center Cameron Fens, who gives USD better height than most of the mid-majors Mizzou has played this year. The Tigers will need to gain the upper hand on the boards against a South Dakota team scoring 13 second chance points a game against Division I opponents.
Limit the turnovers
Turnovers have been arguably the main weakness in an otherwise very good Mizzou offense, as the Tigers are coughing the ball up an average of just under 14 times per game. That’s also exact the number they surrendered last game against Prairie View A&M, leading to 16 of the Panthers’ 73 points. South Dakota has forced an average of just under 15 turnovers in four games against Division I opponents this year, one of the few strengths of the team’s defense. MU will need to take care of the ball if it wants to reach the projected margin of a 24-point win.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 94 – South Dakota 76
MU should get close to reaching triple digits Thursday night. But the Tigers haven’t been able to put together a complete defensive performance over 40 minutes, and a dip in intensity should allow the Coyotes to get hot on offense at some point during the matchup. This should be a comfortable win for Mizzou, though I’m expecting the game to play out much like the Howard and Prairie View A&M games: a win by roughly 20 points that isn’t quite as close as the final score shows.
