The biggest complaint many Nationals fans have about the organization right now is the lack of spending and questionable commitment from ownership. Since winning the World Series back in 2019, the organization fell into a malaise. Payroll was slashed, stars were traded and last place finishes piled up. Now, after the team took a step forward under Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, the time to show commitment is now.
If the Nats do not spend serious money this offseason, it is very hard to believe that
it will happen ever again. The team enters the offseason with the smallest payroll in the sport by $25 million. Spencer Nusbaum wrote a great story about this and took a look at some offseason possibilities.
After an 11 win improvement and so little money on the books, it feels like the perfect time to spend. The Nats could spend around $70 million this offseason and still only have the 20th ranked payroll in the sport. That sort of spending would give the Nats the ability to sign a big fish in the rotation and the bullpen while still having money to play with.
We have written about some of the possibilities including Kevin Gausman, Michael King and Tyler Mahle. The Nats could realistically sign two of those guys and still be a bottom 10 payroll. This is about as financially flexible as a team can be. The only question is whether the Lerner family wants to spend any money at all. Or is having the lowest payroll in the league the whole point?
Since the 2020-21 offseason, the Nats have been one of the least active teams in free agency, at least when it comes to handing out real money. They have not spent more than $15 million since that offseason. The Nats have not given out a free agent contract worth over $10 million per year since 2022.
Even the Rays, a notoriously small market club, gave Nick Martinez 1-year $13 million. Martinezrewarded the Rays for that investment with a 3.10 ERA in 180 innings. At the very least, the Nats need to be making deals like that. If the Nats shopped in that aisle of free agency instead of settling for Miles Mikolas and Cionel Perez, this season could have been a lot different.
Of course, spending money for the sake of it is not wise. The teams remaining are all smaller market clubs, but they pick their spots to spend as well. Milwaukee has locked up Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio and Cooper Pratt among others. The Rays have extended Yandy Diaz and made the Martinez move. Meanwhile, the Guardians extended Jose Ramirez and Tanner Bibee.
Another factor that could loom large here is the lockout. In any world where a salary floor is implemented, the Nats will be well below it. That will force them to spend money, and agents will exploit that. Why not get ahead of it and spend like you should anyways. This is not a small market club!
This post is a good guide to where teams sit financially and what they would need to spend to get to a floor. As you see, the Nats would need to spend some serious money. If a floor is implemented, the Nats will sign players to reach it and take on contracts other teams do not want.
Whether the Nats spend will be the ultimate question this offseason, along with the lockout. Sure, you can have success with a smaller market, but the Nats are just limiting themselves by being so cheap. You are closing the door to talented players.
I also think the sales pitch to free agents will be easier this offseason. After the new regime’s first season, the arrow is pointing up for the first time in a while. This team is not 5 years away anymore. Nats fans have been waiting for a good team for a long time. Now that is finally within shouting distance. It is time to strike and aggressively push to make this team better. The money is there, now spend it and spend it wisely.
