The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off on Thursday in one of the bigger Thanksgiving Day classics in this franchise’s history. With a tight race both in the division and conference, this could be a game we look back on as the difference between a third-straight NFC North crown and missing the playoffs entirely.
Which team has the statistical advantage heading into Thursday afternoon? Let’s take a look and make a prediction in our Week 12 On Paper preview and prediction for Detroit Lions
vs. Green Bay Packers.
Lions pass offense (10th in DVOA) vs. Packers pass defense (7th)
The Detroit Lions’ passing offense is still mostly good, but they’ve encountered some recent inconsistencies. It’s too early to say how much the loss of Sam LaPorta has impacted this unit, but the early returns certainly aren’t great. Still, for the season, this is a good—probably not great—passing attack. Here are some key rankings:
- Third in passer rating (108.8)
- Fifth in yards per attempt (7.8)
- Ninth in dropback EPA (0.151)
- 11th in success rate (49.9%)
Pass protection continues to be a mixed bag. They rank 15th in sack percentage and 16th in pressure percentage. While PFF gives the team an overall pass blocking grade of 61.7 (22nd) and ESPN’s pass block win rate of 56% ranks 28th.
They key for the Lions offense will be to stay out of third-and-longs. Detroit ranks just 29th in converting third-and-8+ (17.2%), while the Packers defense is sixth-best in those situations (17.7% conversion rate).
Speaking of Green Bay’s defense, it’s one of the best in the league this year. They have a pretty darn impressive mixture of pressure and coverage. They’re tied for 10th in sacks, despite having the second-lowest blitz rate (20.0%). And they sport PFF’s second-best coverage grade in the NFL. As an entire unit, they rank:
- Ninth in passer rating (86.5)
- First in yards per attempt (5.9)
- 16th in dropback EPA (0.043)
- Seventh in success rate (43.6%)
The interesting part of this matchup is that the Packers allow what the Lions like to do: short-yardage passing. Green Bay almost never gives up big plays (only seven passing plays of 30+ yards), but the Lions also have been rarely testing defenses deep (31st in passing attempts of 20+ air yards). Instead, the Packers dare offense to throw it underneath and get YAC. Well, that’s exactly what the Lions do. They rank second in the NFL in YAC, and on short passes they rank third in EPA/pass, third in yards per play, and Jared Goff ranks second in passer rating (102.6).
Player to watch: Micah Parsons. He’s a game changer, and unfortunately for the Lions, he’s a danger along the entire line. Take, for example, this ridiculous pass rush rep, where Parsons is right over the center.
Now imagine the Lions interior offensive line going against that, possibly without center Graham Glasgow.
Advantage: Packers +1. Admittedly, this one could go either way, but my biggest concern here is third down. The Lions’ passing offense is capable of staying patient and taking what the defense gives them, but in order for that strategy to work, they need to convert on third downs, and that has been a struggle all year. And if the Lions get behind the sticks or fall behind by a couple of scores, this could get ugly fast. Green Bay feasts when the opponent is in obvious passing downs.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Packers run defense (17th)
For the third time this year, the Lions eclipsed 200 rushing yards last week, and those three performances are certainly lifting some of the team’s overall stats for the season. Those explosive performances matter—and highlight the value of Jahmyr Gibbs to this offense—but I suspect the true “talent” of this rushing attack is probably closer to top-10 than top-five. For the year, they rank:
- Second in YPC (5.1)
- Fifth in rush EPA (0.012)
- 15th in success rate (42.4%)
Those explosive plays are part of Detroit’s rushing identity, but there should be at least a moderate concern about the down-to-down efficiency. While they rank first in the NFL in 30+ yard rushing plays (eight), they actually only rank 18th in 10+ yard rushing plays. So they aren’t hitting on big runs very often, but they are making the most out of those big-play opportunities, and that obviously is a credit to Gibbs himself. Gibbs ranks FIRST in the NFL in rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.5).
The offensive line, again, is a mixed bag. While PFF ranks them third in run blocking (78.7) and PFN has them ninth in adjusted line yards, ESPN has them 17th in run block win rate.
The stats on this Packers run defense are a bit confusing. By yardage (sixth) and yards per carry (seventh), they’re a top-10 unit. And they absolutely shut down the Lions in Week 1. But some of the advanced statistics suggest they are not as good as the charts above suggest. They rank just 12th in rush EPA (-0.099) and 17th in success rate (41.7%).
Part of the reason they look “good,” is they simply don’t face a lot of rushes, nor good running teams. But at the same time, they’ve only allowed over 100 rushing yards four times this season, and over 150 just a single time.
Their defensive front stats offer only more confusion. They rank seventh in adjusted line yards, but 17th in PFF run defense and 17th in run stop win rate. It’s worth noting that they both don’t create a lot of negative plays (22nd in stuffed rate) and they aren’t great in power situations either (25th in short-yardage conversion rate allowed). So situationally, the Lions may be able to find some success.
Player to watch: Uh… whoever is playing center? The Packers are the weakest up the middle, and Gibbs has found a lot of success there. But Detroit’s interior offensive line was shaky enough already without Glasgow possibly being out this week with a knee injury that has limited him to no practice this week.
Advantage: Lions +1. There are two things that have me skeptical about this matchup: Detroit’s overreliance on big plays—which the Packers don’t allow—and that Week 1 matchup. But communication problems shouldn’t be a huge issue at home, and if the Lions can find some situational success on the ground, it would be huge. I’m not expecting an explosive running game, but I could see them getting just over 100 yards on the day.
Packers pass offense (3rd) vs. Lions pass defense (9th)
The Packers’ passing attack has been one of the most efficient all season, but they are going through a bit of an identity crisis right now. It’s probably not fair to pin it all on the loss of explosive tight end Tucker Kraft, but it also doesn’t feel like a coincidence seeing all of the red in the above charts literally coinciding with Kraft’s season-ending injury against the Panthers.
In the three games that followed, the Packers are:
- 24th in yards per attempt (5.6)
- 20th in completion percentage (59.5)
- 15th in passer rating (88.5)
- Ninth in dropback EPA (0.157)
- 10th in success rate (48.5%)
That said, it’s a small sample size and it includes two strong defenses in the Eagles and Vikings. The season-long stats are a bit more daunting:
- Sixth in yards per attempt (7.7)
- Sixth in passer rating (103.0)
- First in dropback EPA (0.285)
- Fifth in success rate (51.9%)
The Packers have had a carousel of receivers throughout the year, but the players they seem to be relying upon lately include Christian Watson (283 yards, 2 TDs in five games) and Romeo Doubs (41 catches, 522 yards, 5 TDs this year).
Their pass protection has mostly been fine, ranking 15th in pressure percentage, eighth in sack percentage, and fifth in pass block win rate.
I just don’t think I can trust the Lions’ pass defense right now. They’re an insanely frustrating unit to watch, because, in general, their success rate is quite good. They rank fifth in the NFL in dropback success rate (43.0%). However, they give up so many explosive plays, it’s hard to be really excited about that. No team has given up more plays of 30+ yards than the Lions in the passing game, and that could be a big problem this week.
The Packers don’t YOLO ball as much as they used to, but when Love uncorks one, it’s trouble. Green Bay has 14 plays of 30+ yards through the air, good for t-ninth most in the NFL.
For the season, Detroit ranks:
- 23rd in yards per attempt (7.2)
- 16th in passer rating (92.1)
- 17th in dropback EPA (0.285)
- Fifth in success rate (43.0%)
Personally, I think this is a relatively average pass defense that is arguably trending toward below average.
Player to watch: Alim McNeill. I feel like McNeill is starting to heat up, and with the possible return of Marcus Davenport, we could see McNeill take off this week. Green Bay is vulnerable in the middle of their defensive line with guard-turned-center Sean Rhyan ranking 73rd among 80 guards in pass blocking grade and the other two interior linemen (Aaron Banks, 34th and Jordan Morgan, 38th) ranking in the middle of the pack.
Advantage: Packers +1.5. I just don’t love where the Lions are trending right now, although Green Bay is admittedly trending in a similar direction. The Packers aren’t likely to uncork for 300+ yards—they’ve only done that twice this year—but I do fear that when they need a big play or two, they’re going to get it, and that could make all the difference.
Packers run offense (13th) vs. Lions run defense (6th)
This is a pretty shockingly bad chart from the Packers. It probably paints a picture worse than it actually is, but it is also pretty important to point out that they’ve only outgained the defense’s YPC average twice this year and they have yet to do it in terms of yards per carry. The Lions are allowing just 101.7 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. Chances are the Packers are going to hit near or below those marks this week.
But their overall efficiency metrics aren’t as bad as this suggests. For the year, they rank:
- 23rd in yards per carry (4.0)
- 16th in rush EPA (-0.046)
- 11th in success rate (43.8%)
As you may suspect from the high success rate, the real problem right now is the lack of explosive plays. Their longest run of the season is a 25-yard run from Love. If we’re talking about just running backs, the Packers don’t have a run over 19 yards this season.
Blocking has been the biggest issue, with the Packers ranking 21st run PFF run blocking grade, 18th in run block win rate, and 11th in adjusted line yards.
It looks like Josh Jacobs is trending toward playing this week, but it’s worth noting that he’s only averaging 3.8 yards per carry. That said, he’s still a weapon in the red zone. His 11 rushing touchdowns only trails Jonathan Taylor.
The Lions’ run defense continues to be strong, only allowing one of the last six opponents to average over 4.0 yards per carry. They’ve been particularly phenomenal in short-yardage situations (first in power success rate allowed at 38%), which could be a nice antidote to Jacobs in the red zone.
For the year, they rank:
- Sixth in yards per carry (3.9)
- Fifth in rush EPA (-0.128)
- Ninth in success rate (38.5%)
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. I may just devote this section to Campbell every week from now on. The Lions’ third-year linebacker has been phenomenal against the run, ranking first in PFF run defense grade (93.5), first in run stops (28), and fourth in run stop rate (10.7). PFF has also credited him with exactly ZERO missed tackles in the run game.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. While I think the Packers’ rushing attack is better than their chart suggests, they are not an explosive threat, nor should they finish with anything more than 100 yards and somewhere around 4.0 yards per carry. Should be a relatively quiet day from Jacobs, although he could certainly find the end zone.
Last week’s prediction
I predicted a pretty big win for the Lions, which obviously didn’t happen. My biggest swing and miss came in predicting an edge for the Lions’ pass defense. That unit’s inconsistency has been noted several times when it comes to On Paper, and consider my confidence in it even more shaken right now. I am also mildly concerned about the Lions’ pass offense in a post-Sam LaPorta world after two disappointing performances.
In the comment section—this one coming from our expert picks comment section—Zach Kadolph nearly nailed the final prediction with his 32-27 Lions prediction. Here is your prize:
This week’s prediction
We come out with a dead draw between the two teams. All week, I had been anticipating picking the Packers, but it’s clear they’re just as flawed as the Lions are. I see both teams struggling to move the ball this week. Detroit will need to be great on third downs, but the Packers won’t make it easy. Green Bay has relied more upon the run game and short passing on offense as of late, but that plays right into Detroit’s defensive strengths, as well.
I’m still leaning Packers, though, for one reason and one reason only: they’re more likely to create game-changing explosive plays. So give me Green Bay in a very tight one: Packers 20, Lions 16.
