Wednesday’s Celtics-Hawks game feels like a fresh coat of paint on an old car. Boston is competing for the top of the East, while the Hawks take their appointed place in the play-in tournament. An offseason
full of attrition for the Celtics (that directly helped the Hawks) seemingly changed nothing. Funny sport we have here.
When these two teams met a couple of weeks ago, it was an utter blowout in the C’s favor. What do they have to do this time for a similar result? Let’s break down the key matchups and set plays.
Jalen, May We Have This Dance?
Jalen Johnson’s breakout season has been the one thing keeping the Hawks from disaster. As they navigated the end of the Trae Young era, it has been Johnson’s offensive play that keeps their heads above water. But he sure has his flaws.
Atlanta has maintained a 78th percentile defensive rating with Johnson on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. But that’s not much of a credit to JJ; outside of his defensive rebounding, which is excellent, he’s not bringing a lot to the table defensively. And the Celtics know that.
There wasn’t much complexity to the Boston gameplan in the first matchup. See Jalen, put Jalen in action, profit. His penchant for giving up soft switches and getting lost in rotation is a huge boon for a team that wants to attack mismatches and shoot as many threes as possible.
Perhaps this time around, Boston will up the complexity, adding some Spain/Stack PNRs and double-drag actions. Those extra layers of communication will put extra strain on Atlanta’s defense to cover for Johnson. But the most likely scenario is that they keep it simple and bring whoever he is guarding into a direct ball screen. As you saw above, it sure does work.
DHO Danger
Atlanta has no problem stacking overlapping skill sets. They view that as a strength, not a weakness. One skillset they have in spades is pull-up shooting, especially coming out of dribble handoffs. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Corey Kispert, Luke Kennard, and Vit Krejci are all capable PU3 shooters off the dribble. Atlanta also has plenty of capable DHO operators: Onyeka Okongwu, Mo Gueye, and the aforementioned Jalen Johnson.
If you’re not active, denying the pull-up shots over these dribble handoffs, Atlanta can bury you in a hurry. They generated a whole bunch of looks in the first matchup.
Luckily for the Celtics, a lot of those shots came up wanting. They were able to play in drop and let the screen navigation dictate the shot. If they’re less lucky in this game, I’m curious whether or not Mazzulla adjusts the game plan to blitz these dribble handoffs and run them off the line
Prepare For Trouble
A key to this Atlanta team has been the development of Mouhamed Gueye. The young big is a defensive wizard, and his ability to survive on the perimeter on both ends of the floor makes him ideal for double-big pairings. So far, the Gueye-Onyeka Okongwu duo has been on the floor for 15.7% of Atlanta’s total possessions this season. It’s a combination that is becoming integral to their lineups.
That has not been a fruitful pairing so far, with a -8.3 net rating. They have weaknesses to exploit, and the Celtics will have to be wise to take advantage. Both players are young, and while they are great defenders, they can be thrown off when making unconventional rotations.
If the Celtics are crisp in their ball movement and relocations, there are plenty of threes and layups to be had against this lineup. But you also have to account for the size concerns; Okongwu is good at posting up mismatches, and those two can hit the glass hard against smaller competition. Sam Hauser is the key here as an excellent floor spacer with size; it’s no coincidence that his 30-point, 10/21 three-point shooting night came against these Hawks.
I hope you feel a bit more prepared for this game. Now kick back and bask in some Celtics excellence.
