No surprise here, as the Detroit Tigers’ rookie phenom was a candidate for league MVP in March and April. He was tied for the league lead in Baseball Reference’s rWAR with 2.0 wins above replacement and currently tracking toward a potential 9 WAR season in his major league debut. He’s made it look so easy that we’re already acclimated to quiet games where he goes 1 for 3 with an RBI and a walk as just his baseline day at the park. The Reds’ Sal Stewart is a heck of a young hitter as well, and he took
home the award in the National League.
McGonigle is currently hitting .315/.407/.477 for a 149 wRC+ and unlike just about all the names above him on various offensive leaderboards, he’s playing a sound shortstop day in and day out rather than bat first positions like corner outfield or first base. He holds a 12.7 percent strikeout rate and a 12.7 percent walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Chase DeLauter have lower strikout rates as well as a higher walk rate in the whole league.
There are also signs that McGonigle has been a little unlucky as we near the season’s quarter pole. He holds a stellar .394 weight on-base average (wOBA), but Statcast says he should be at .401 based on his batted ball data. He’s slugging a heathy .477 but expected slugging says he should be slugging .535 and we have seen quite a bit of chilly, wet weather to start the year. Once it’s hot and low humidity, there’s a good likelihood that McGonigle has plenty more in the tank than we’ve seen already. On the other end, his expected batting average is .297 instead of the .315 he’s currently rocking, but we’ll happily trade a few singles for a few more home runs when he’s ready.
The best part of this, or at least the part that I was less sure about coming into the season, is that McGonigle is both playing a solid shortstop, and showing even a bit better speed than he did last year.
Perhaps the early season ankle injury in 2025 lingered a bit, or at least kept him less willing to push it for part of last year. His sprint speed is holding well above average, and we’ve seen him post some elite home to first times when he’s really needed to beat feet.
Defensively he’s a plus 2 in defensive runs saved at both shortstop and third base, and a minus 2 by Statcast’s Outs Above Average (OAA). Defensive metrics are still pretty variable this time a year, but we can at least confidently say that McGonigle is playing an average shortstop, confounding a lot of scouts who were pretty down on his ability to handle the position last year.
Most of this goes without saying if you’re watching the Detroit Tigers every night. There’s nothing flukey going on at all. Kevin McGonigle is already one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he’s got a lot more home run power than he’s shown early on. All signs suggest that this is just a starting point for the 21-year-old as he leads the AL Rookie of the Year race, but is also making a convincing case as a possible MVP candidate. At some point perhaps we’ll see a little slump, but his approach, swing, and elite hand-eye coordination says that even those little slumps will just be blips on the radar as Kevin McGonigle holds at cruising altitude as an elite hitter, and looks to continue higher in the power department.
Congratulations to him on being named Rookie of the Month in the American League. Only five more months to go for a clean sweep.
