The snapshot
- Head coach: Jake Diebler (second full season, five-year deal signed March 17, 2024)
- 2024–25 finish: 17–15 (9–11 Big Ten), declined an invite to the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament.
- Core returning starters:
- Bruce Thornton (Sr., G): 17.7 PPG, 4.6 APG in 2024–25.
- Devin Royal (Jr., F): 13.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 52.5% FG in 27 starts.
- John “Juni” Mobley Jr. (So., G): 13.0 PPG as a freshman, 77 made threes.
- Impact portal/roster adds:
- Christoph Tilly (7-foot, Santa Clara): 12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 55.4% FG in 2024–25.
- Brandon Noel (6-foot-8, Wright State): 19.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 55.2% FG in 2024–25.
- Josh Ojianwuna (6-foot-10, Baylor): 7.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG on 77% FG before a February knee injury, status to be monitored.
- Gabe Cupps (Indiana): Steady defender/ball-mover, started 22 games as a freshman in 2023–24, limited scoring in 2024–25.
- Freshmen: A’Mare Bynum (F), Mathieu Grujicic (G, Germany).
- Official 2025–26 non-conference highlights: Home openers vs IU Indy (Nov 3), Purdue Fort Wayne, Appalachian State, marquee dates vs Notre Dame, West Virginia (in Cleveland), North Carolina (CBS Sports Classic), Virginia (in Nashville).
The case for Ohio State: a modern perimeter core, finally with frontcourt answers
As the Buckeyes gear up for the new season, excitement is in the air. Under the guidance of Jake Diebler, Ohio State returns a clear identity on the perimeter with Bruce Thornton and John Mobley Jr. as the primary creators, and a versatile forward in Devin Royal sliding to the 3.
That gives the Buckeyes a balanced trio on the wing, two guards who can handle and shoot, paired with a physical forward who can defend multiple positions and rebound outside his area.
The difference from a year ago is that
Ohio State finally has the frontcourt depth to match its perimeter strength. Transfers Brandon Noel and Christoph Tilly, along with a healthy Josh Ojianwuna, give the Buckeyes size, rim protection, and rebounding they simply lacked in 2024–25.
Last year’s late push showed promise, but OSU was too often overmatched on the glass and at the rim. This roster is deeper, more versatile, and far more equipped to compete with the physical Big Ten frontlines.
Where the season truly swings in my opinion is with Mobley’s shot-making gravity and Royal’s two-way leap. Mobley’s ability to stretch defenses beyond the arc opens driving lanes and changes how opponents can guard Ohio State in the half court. Royal’s development as a true small forward, scoring efficiently, rebounding, and guarding wings, gives Diebler a modern lineup that can match up with anyone.
Together, they cover two historical weaknesses in half-court spacing and on-glass toughness. If both take the next step, Ohio State moves from a “solid NCAA team” to a realistic Top-15 contender.
Why Mobley Jr. is the offensive X-factor
1) Elite, scalable shooting volume (already)
As a true freshman in 2024–25, Mobley hit 77 threes, and averaged 2.4 threes per game, which was tied for second in the Big-Ten, while averaging 13.0 PPG. That level of volume instantly changes defensive geometry, teams must top-lock him off the ball and pick him up well beyond NBA range, which opens middle drives for Thornton and duck-ins for the bigs.
2) More efficient looks are coming with real centers
Mobley shot 38.9% FG overall as a freshman, which is good but there is clear room to rise when he’s flanked by legitimate screeners/rollers. Christoph Tilly (55.4% FG, 31 starts) set sturdy angles and popped some at Santa Clara, while Brandon Noel (19.0 PPG on 55.2% FG) punishes tags on the roll, both player profiles that historically lift a shooter’s catch-and-shoot diet and pull-up quality.
Add a healthy Josh Ojianwuna (career 70%+ at the rim, 77% FG in 2024–25 before injury), and Mobley’s efficiency trajectory should be trending up massively.
3) Secondary creation unlocks late-clock options
Mobley’s freshman line (13.0 PPG, 2.2 APG) wasn’t just stand-still shooting, he’s comfortable snaking PnR into pull-ups. With Thornton commanding the primary, OSU can run Spain and Double Drag actions to spring Mobley as the first relocation man or the re-screen ball-handler.
Against switching Big Ten wings, his quick release should punish both drop and switch-back coverages.
4) Fit with Thornton
Thornton’s 17.7 PPG/4.6 APG production returns, his short-roll reads were sometimes wasted without a vertical finisher or corner gravity. Mobley’s 3-point volume forces “nail” help to stay home, simplifying Thornton’s reads and creating the clean paint touches OSU lacked in 2024–25.
What growth looks like (benchmarks): Modest bumps to ~39–41% from three on similar or slightly higher attempts, overall FG% into the low-40s, and assist rate that keeps defenses honest. If Mobley nudges those margins, Ohio State’s half-court rating jumps immensly.
Why Royal is the defensive (and toughness) X-factor
1) Proven sophomore production
Royal started 27 games and averaged 13.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG on 52.5% FG in 2024–25, logging three double-doubles and six 20-point nights. He was OSU’s best defensive rebounder by rate and feel. Those are foundational “two-way starter” numbers for a now junior wing-forward.
2) Lineup glue between guards and bigs
At 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, Royal’s ability to defend up or down a position and crash the weak-side glass is crucial in a Big Ten now teeming with jumbo wings and bigs with size and strength. OSU’s 2025 roster conversation revolved around rebounding/paint presence and Royal’s motor plus Tilly and Noel/Ojianwuna’s size is the clearest path to fixing that.
3) Small-ball pressure valve
Diebler can play Thornton–Mobley–Cupps–Royal–Tilly or some other variation of that to maximize spacing, and rely on Royal to check the opponent’s strongest forward, switch late clock, and finish plays as a rim-runner. If Royal’s defensive reads tick up another notch, OSU’s scheme versatility expands.
4) Offensive polish trending up
Royal opened last season with a career-high 16 vs Texas and hit 77%+ at the line for the year, markers of a growing half-court game. If his corner-3 consistency stabilizes and he maintains his driving strength, he becomes the matchup that forces opponents to pick, stay small to chase Mobley/Thornton and get bullied by Royal, or go big and get spaced to death.
What growth looks like (benchmarks): Keep FG% in the 51–54% range on higher usage, defensive reb% among team leaders, and add ~0.6–0.8 made threes per game to punish defenses.
How the rest of the pieces fit
- Bruce Thornton (Sr., lead guard): A steady floor general who averaged 17.7 points and 4.6 assists last season, Thornton brings late-game composure, physicality, and a reliable pull-up jumper that organizes end-of-clock possessions. His experience and consistency set the baseline for Ohio State’s offense.
- Frontcourt rotation:
- Christoph Tilly: A mobile 7-footer who shot 55.4% from the field, Tilly combines touch around the rim with enough pick-and-pop ability to stretch defenses. His ability to slip into ghost actions or space out of “Zoom” screens forces drop bigs to defend in ways they’d rather not, giving Ohio State a versatile new look in the half court.
- Brandon Noel: After averaging 19.0 points and 7.7 rebounds at Wright State, Noel arrives as a proven scorer with soft hands and a physical interior presence. He thrives as a second-side roller or short-post hub, punishing weak help defenders and anchoring the glass against bigger lineups.
- Josh Ojianwuna: If fully healthy, Ojianwuna offers explosive rim running, elite finishing efficiency (77% FG last season before injury), and rebounding strength. His presence as a vertical threat and paint protector changes the team’s defensive ceiling, though the staff has stressed patience with his recovery and left open the possibility of a medical redshirt.
- Backcourt/wing depth:
- Gabe Cupps: A disciplined guard who started 22 games as a freshman at Indiana, Cupps adds defensive toughness and steadiness as a secondary handler. Though not a high-usage scorer, his decision-making helps stabilize second-unit lineups and keep the offense organized.
- Mathieu Grujicic: A versatile guard with size and strength on the perimeter, Grujicic brings shot-making potential and defensive flexibility. His 6-foot-6 frame allows him to check bigger guards and wings, while his ability to space the floor gives Ohio State another option to keep lineups balanced and modern.
- A’Mare Bynum: A physically strong forward whose frame allows him to guard multiple positions, Bynum gives Ohio State valuable defensive versatility and the potential to contribute on the glass in limited minutes.
- Taison Chatman: A skilled combo guard with good size, Chatman brings playmaking ability and scoring touch. After limited opportunities early in his career, he has the tools to carve out a bigger role if he can provide consistent shooting and defense off the bench.
- Colin White: A sophomore wing with length and energy, White projects as a developmental piece who can contribute in spot minutes. His motor and athleticism make him a candidate to grow into a reliable rotation player over time.
Non-conference runway (and why it matters for March)
Ohio State’s 2025–26 non-conference slate is purposeful, six straight at home to settle rotations, then step-ups vs Notre Dame, Pitt (away), West Virginia in Cleveland, North Carolina, and Virginia in Nashville.
This schedule gives Mobley/Royal multiple high-major litmus tests against varied defenses, Pack-Line principles with UVA, length/athleticism with UNC, and physicality vs WVU. Banking two or three of those results positions the Buckeyes well before the expanded Big Ten grind.
Pressure points (what could go wrong)
- Health up front. If Ojianwuna’s return is delayed and Tilly/Noel carry very heavy minutes early, OSU could still feel light vs elite Big Ten size, Ojianwuna’s status is a genuine variable entering November.
- Defensive communication with new pieces. Integrating multiple frontcourt transfers mandates crisp weak-side tags and box-outs, early slippage will show up on second-chance points (a pain point in recent seasons).
- Shot diet for Mobley. If teams overplay him off pin-downs and chase him into twos, the efficiency bump requires comfort getting to mid-range counters or quick pocket passes, both growth areas to monitor.
Swing factors to watch (with realistic stat targets)
- Mobley: from 13.0 PPG to ~15–16 PPG on similar usage with 39–41% 3PT. Keep turnovers in check (~2.0 or less). If he repeats 70+ threes, OSU’s spacing is top-tier again.
- Royal: steady 14–15+ PPG, 7–8 RPG, maintain >52% FG, add a consistent corner 3 (0.6–0.8 3PM). Defensive glass rate drives OSU’s transition game.
- Team rebounding: with Noel, and potential Ojianwuna minutes, OSU should flip last year’s rebounding narrative, if defensive reb% sits top-third in the league, the Buckeyes’ efficiency profile jumps.
- Pick-and-roll synergy: Tilly’s 55.4 FG% and pop threat versus Noel’s bruising roll gives Diebler match-up tools. Look for early two-man actions with Thornton/Mobley manipulating the low-man.
Bottom line (and a realistic range)
Ohio State’s most reliable five projects as Bruce Thornton, Juni Mobley, Devin Royal, Brandon Noel, and Christoph Tilly, a lineup that can flex between spacing with Tilly as a pop threat and brute force with Noel as a roller.
Situational depth pieces give Diebler genuine tactical flexibility, Taison Chatman profiles as a secondary creator who can steady bench units, Mathieu Grujicic adds perimeter size and shooting, and Josh Ojianwuna offers rim protection if healthy.
Beyond them, Gabe Cupps brings defense and ball control, A’Mare Bynum supplies a strong defensive frame for switch-heavy looks, and Colin White brings energy and a potential scoring spark in spot minutes.
The season’s trajectory ultimately hinges on the development of Mobley and Royal in my opinion. If Mobley can elevate his shooting from “dangerous” to the kind of immense three-point gravity that bends defensive game plans, Ohio State gains the late-clock creator and floor-spacing engine it lacked.
If Royal emerges as the all-league caliber forward his flashes suggest, mixing toughness on the glass with switchable defense and opportunistic scoring, the Buckeyes finally have the two-way wing anchor their recent rosters have been missing.
With a deeper, better-balanced rotation, the floor looks like a solid NCAA at-large baseline. But if health cooperates and both Mobley and Royal develop like I expect them to, this group has Sweet 16 (and beyond) upside.
The X-factor verdict:
- Mobley determines how high the Buckeyes can fly (spacing, shot-making, late-clock creation).
- Royal determines how reliable they’ll be when it gets rugged (boards, switches, extra possessions).
If both hit, Diebler has his identity, and Ohio State should be back to feeling like Ohio State basketball should.
