The Braves are going with a lineup that’s simultaneously surprising and not-so-surprising in Game 1 of their three-game playoff set against the Phillies:
The top half of the lineup isn’t that surprising. Sure, maybe you expected the Braves to start with Ronald Acuña Jr. given that the nominal starter they are facing today throws with his left hand, but they’ve chosen to alternate handedness while keeping Matt Olson ensconced in the third spot in the lineup.
This means that Mauricio Dubon, of the 317 wOBA, .308 xwOBA, 99 wRC+, with an 84 wRC+ and .290 xwOBA against southpaws this season, is hitting cleanup. Now, you might say, hold on — Dubon was one of the few guys hitting for this club in September. And, that’s true — he had a 131 wRC+. But, he also outhit his xwOBA by .064 in that month, so… the Braves are hoping it works anyway, I guess?
The rest of the lineup is surprising insofar as Mike Yastrzemski slots in at DH, despite said southpaw on the mound. The Braves are either hoping Jesus Luzardo doesn’t last long enough to get to the eighth spot in the lineup (or that if he does, there was a big early rally and it doesn’t matter), or afraid that they simply don’t have enough options to protect Yastrzemski against a lefty reliever later if they start someone else and then give the reins the Yastrzemski. After all, they’re not really awash in righty pinch-hitting options.
All of this means that Dubon starts in left, and Ha-Seong Kim gets the reins at shortstop. By carrying both Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith, the Braves have a lot of latitude to pinch hit for Kim whenever they feel like it, including early on — and move to Dubon to short in the process — we’ll see what happens, though.
While really anything can happen and something weird probably will, this game is more likely going to be about whether the Braves’ actual good bats can do stuff against Luzardo and/or whomever replaces him (Andrew Painter? I don’t know). From Dubon-onward, only Michael Harris II has actually hit at all well this year (and he’s been great, if kind of weird offensively with strong bookend months and a lot of luck in between), so either those guys all having bad seasons manage to show a scintilla of something positive, or it’s gonna be waiting for one of the mashers to mash.
The Phillies were kind enough to post their lineup right as I was ready for it, and it looks like this:
With Luis Arraez injured, the Phillies get to plug in an extra righty. Chief Ivan Annoyer Derek Hill hits fifth, former Brave and famed horse armor aficionado Bryan De La Cruz hits sixth, and Edmundo Sosa is hovering out there and will probably annoy Chris Sale and us out of the eight hole.
I won’t do batter-versus-pitcher stats against Luzardo since I have no idea how long he’s going to last, but for those that care about these guys versus Sale:
These numbers are neither good nor bad, really. They just kind of are. Alec Bohm’s gotten a bit lucky, and Sale has dominated most of the weaker hitters (except, of course, in seven PAs, Derek f’n Hill aargh). If you sum these all up, it bodes well with a .258 wOBA / .279 xwOBA in head-to-head matchups, but of course that means managing the mischief of Bohm, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber a bit, while avoiding tumbling off the Derek Hill, roo. Anyway, I can’t imagine batter-versus-pitcher has that much bearing here, but what else is there to talk about? I guess I could scratch my head about Dubon hitting cleanup some more.
This game starts at 2pm ET.
