Cue up Future, because we’ve officially entered March Madness. The bracket has officially been revealed, with action from the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament starting on Tuesday with the “First Four” in Dayton. At Mavs Moneyball, we’re going to take a region by region look at the tournament, highlighting NBA Draft prospects who have the most to gain or lose with their performances in the dance.
We’ll start with the West Region, located in the top right corner of your bracket. This region is headlined by the number one seed Arizona Wildcats, but the middle of this region features some of the best prospects in the country. There are at least three top ten level prospects in this quadrant of the tournament, and each of them have something to prove in this event. Let’s break it down.
AJ Dybantsa (F, BYU)
Perhaps no one has made a stronger push to be the number one overall pick than Dybantsa, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 25 points per game, while also averaging over four assists per contest. That’s gotten even better as of late, as AJ is averaging over 28 a game over his last 16, while upping his efficiency to nearly 50% from the floor and 37% from deep. Beyond the gaudy scoring output, the thing about Dybantsa that has really set him apart from the rest of the guys at the top is the, for lack of a better term, dog in him. Dybantsa is an elite competitor, which has only intensified after the Cougars lost senior guard Richie Saunders for the season with a torn ACL.
The gain here for AJ is simple: If he can carry BYU to the second weekend of the tournament, I think he can lock down the number one overall pick. I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but this BYU team is not very good and can’t guard a lot of intramural squads, let alone legit college offenses. It’ll take a heroic effort by Dybantsa both offensively and defensively to get there, but it can be done. If there is a gripe about Dybantsa, it probably comes from his defense, which has space cadet tendencies when he’s off ball. In this environment, a fully locked in AJ Dybantsa should help alleviate those concerns, but we need to see it happen.
First round game: Winner of NC State vs Texas
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Dailyn Swain (F, Texas)
Speaking of Texas, their best player also stands to gain a ton from his time in the NCAA Tournament. Texas is off and running early, as they will play North Carolina State in the play-in game for this region on Tuesday night. Swain has easily been the biggest bright spot on this Texas team, which can’t guard its own shadow. In conference play, Swain averaged nearly 20 points a game, shooting 55% from the floor, 38% from deep and 84% at the foul line. For a guy who had been offensively challenged at times throughout his career, to see those stats over a 20-game sample is just remarkable.
Beyond that, Swain has the length and athleticism to be a plus defender, which he has been in the year. Listed at 6’8”, 220, he averaged over eight rebounds per game in SEC play and generated two steals + blocks per contest. If Texas can somehow find its way into the first round, they will meet BYU and the aforementioned Dybantsa. Swain would certainly draw that assignment, which would be must watch television. If he can propel Texas into that game and then hold his own against AJ, the perception of Swain as a prospect becomes much different.
First round game: Against NC State on Tuesday night
Mo Krivas (C, Arizona)
Arizona is a finely tuned machine at the moment, going 32-2 and winning the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament. A big reason for that has been Krivas, who has gone from out of the mock drafts entirely into a potential first round pick. The 7’2” Lithuanian, who is coming off of knee surgery last season, has put together a fantastic season for the Cats, averaging over 10 points per game, grabbing eight boards and picking up nearly two blocks per game. He’s an elite offensive rebounder, nabbing three a game, while also anchoring the Cats drop-heavy pick and roll defense.
Where Krivas has the most to gain is in handling some physicality. It’s undecided whether or not Krivas will actually enter into the 2026 draft, as he could return to Arizona, be an all-American, and come out next year and likely be drafted higher in a weaker draft class. It could be useful for him to do that, as another year removed from knee surgery and a few extra pounds to handle the physicality of the league will be helpful. However, teams might see Krivas as a potential stretch big with big upside, as Krivas has taken a couple threes this year and shoots nearly 80% on his free throws. Let’s see if he can be a force this March.
First round game: Against Long Island on Friday
Darius Acuff (G, Arkansas)
The best scoring guard in the country resides in Fayetteville. Darius Acuff has been nothing short of phenomenal offensively this year, regularly impressing with elite shot making and vision in the passing game. There might not be a more fun guard to watch in the country when he has things going than Acuff. So, what is there to gain here for Acuff?
As seen above, Acuff’s defense is truly terrible. Moments like that typically happen multiple times a game for him. He will be the worst defender in the NBA the minute he is drafted this summer, which is problematic for where he will be selected. The thing that we need to figure out is why, which is why I place Acuff here. Is this due to the offensive workload that he carries, and he simply doesn’t try to save energy for the other end? Is it the foot injury that he has been dealing with on and off for the back half of the season? Or is Acuff simply just small and inactive on that end, with little to no room to improve? Acuff could bolster his stock by simply giving some effort on that end, because the offense is just phenomenal.
This region provides him that chance, as from the round of 32 on, Acuff will see nothing but elite backcourts until Arkansas either wins the whole thing or gets eliminated. This is a big chance for him to show up on the defensive end. But until he does, that bright red bullseye on him defensively will only get brighter.
First round game: Against Hawai’i on Thursday
Brayden Burries (G, Arizona)
I want Brayden Burries to work his way into that top tier of this NBA Draft so desperately. There might not be a more undervalued prospect in my opinion, but part of that is of his and Arizona’s own doing. Arizona has a senior guard in Jaden Bradley who runs the show offensively, which relegates Burries to a secondary creation role. To his credit, he’s been really good in that role, but I want to see more of that from him. He’s a 2:1 assist to turnover guy, but those are basically his raw numbers on the year. On the plus side, Burries is 37% from three and is one of the best rim finishers in the sport for a guard.
Arizona won’t see a stiff challenge until the second weekend, but once they get there, I hope to see Burries in a big spot against Arkansas or Wisconsin. They’ll need him to be at his best against both of those squads, as both the Hogs and the Badgers have elite backcourts. Coming into the tournament, Burries is just 32% from three over his last five games. Let’s hope we get the best of Burries in March.
First round game: Against Long Island on Friday
