The Atlanta Falcons signed running back Bijan Robinson to a record-breaking contract on Tuesday, and the deal emphasizes just how good of a bargain Kyren Williams is to the Los Angeles Rams.
According to Spotrac, Williams will be making less than half of the $22,250,000 AAV Robinson is now being paid. In fact, Williams is listed as the 13th highest-paid RB in the league at $11,000,000 AAV.
Even rookie Jeremiyah Love is making more before he even touches the ball in the NFL!
Is Robinson worth twice as much as Williams?
The short answer here is
no, but it’s like comparing apples to oranges. Yes, they both play running back, but their skill sets and how their coaches use them in different scenarios differ.
If you look at Robinson’s year-over-year numbers from Pro Football Reference, you will see that his past two years have been very similar when running the ball in terms of number of carries and yards gained. The total yards gained, as well as his average per carry last season, will have been slightly skewed by that 93-yard scamper.
There is a big change, however, in how he was used as a receiver. A targeted increase of almost 43% and an increase in receiving yards of just under 100%. With new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offensive background, I doubt very much that his pass targets will drop this year. He’ll be used much like Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco as the workhorse of the offense.
Kyren Williams’ numbers tell a different story of their own. Even though there’s a drop in his number of carries due to Blake Corum getting more touches, his total yards are almost the same, while his yards per carry increase from 4.1 to 4.8. Fresher legs throughout the game?
Have a look at the Succ%. That’s the rushing success rate per PFR:
measures the percentage of run plays that keep an offense on schedule by gaining a specific value of needed yardage based on the down. A rush is successful if it gains at least 40% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down.
In other words, very useful carries. Robinson’s dropped while Kyren’s improved.
There were grumblings among some Rams fans when Williams was extended, but I’m not sure why. It’s obvious his production is similar, but he’s lacking the long speed and ‘flash’ that fans crave. The improvement in Williams’ receiving game is terrific, and if it continues, his deal gets better and better. At the risk of jinxing him, his ball security seems like less of an issue as well.
Robinson, in a lot of ways, is like McCaffrey. The opposition knows they are getting the ball, and yet they still produce at high levels.
Again, I’m not trying to compare the two, simply pointing out that to me, Williams is the better deal.
