Believe it or not, the Mets (7-12) had a winning record one week ago. Now that they’ve lost eight games in a row, though, they’ll be lucky to get back to .500 over the next couple of weeks. And coming of a much-needed off day yesterday, they’re now in Chicago for a three-game series with the Cubs (9-9).
Having scored 3.42 runs per game thus far this season, the Mets’ lineup has been the fourth-worst in baseball at scoring. And while the Mets have been better at run prevention than run scoring, their
4.16 runs allowed per game is the eleventh-best rate in the league.
Of the players who’ve made at least ten plate appearances for the team, only two are healthy and hitting above league average: Francisco Alvarez (163 wRC+) and Luis Robert Jr. (115 wRC+). Francisco Lindor (71 wRC+) ranks third on the team in hitting, and all of the remaining eight players taper off from there until Carson Benge (39 wRC+) and Brett Baty (30 wRC+) wrap it up. With Juan Soto (159 wRC+) and Jared Young (137 wRC+) on the injured list, the Mets simply need the players in their lineup to drastically improve.
The Cubs have been a much more potent team at the plate in the early going, as they’ve averaged 5.22 runs scored per game, a rate that ranks seventh. And they’ve been nearly identical to the Mets when it comes to preventing runs with a rate of 4.17 runs allowed per game.
Unlike the Mets, the Cubs have nine hitters who have made at least ten plate appearances while hitting above league average. Carson Kelly (167 wRC+), Nico Hoerner (159 wRC+), and Moisés Ballesteros (153 wRC+) have led the way. Old friend Michael Conforto (137 wRC+) and Miguel Amaya (137 wRC+) have excelled in part-time roles, as well. And with Dansby Swanson (119 wRC+), Ian Happ (111 wRC+), Seiya Suzuki (102 wRC+), and Matt Shaw (101 wRC+) hitting pretty well, the Cubs could be even more potent if Alex Bregman (91 wRC+) starts performing to the level of his career norm.
Former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong (63 wRC+) remains in a rut at the plate to start this season, having put up a monster first half in 2025 before seeing his production drop off massively in the second half. And Michael Busch (33 wRC+) is the only hitter on the list having a terrible start to the season.
Friday, April 17: Kodai Senga vs. Edward Cabrera, 2:20 PM EDT on WPIX
Senga (2026): 14.0 IP, 19 K, 7 BB, 2 HR, 7.07 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 181 ERA-
After two very encouraging starts to begin the season, Senga had a downright awful start his last time out against the A’s. While his velocity was down a bit compared to his first two starts, it was still higher than it had been in 2025. He just didn’t have it that day, though, and gave up seven earned runs in two-and-one-third innings. Here’s hoping that was just a blip and Senga looks much more like he did in those first two outings.
Cabrera (2026): 16.2 IP, 13 K, 9 BB, 0 HR, 1.62 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 41 ERA-
While the underlying metrics don’t look quite as flashy as his ERA, Cabrera is making a good first impression through his first three starts with the Cubs. The former Marlin was traded to Chicago in early January, and he’s coming off the best season of his major league career last year. In it, he threw a career-high 137.2 innings and finished the season with a 3.53 ERA and a 3.83 FIP.
Saturday, 18: Freddy Peralta vs. Jameson Taillon, 2:20 PM EDT on SNY
Peralta (2026): 21.0 IP, 25 K, 8 BB, 3 HR, 3.86 ERA-, 3.92 FIP, 99 ERA-
Peralta’s most recent start was arguably the best one he’s made through his first four since joining the Mets in one of the bigger trades of the offseason. He’s been roughly league average in total thus far, and pretty much everything he’s done looks right in line with what he did in Milwaukee over the past three seasons. He’s not likely to go all that deep into a game, and his FIP is hovering around four. Here’s hoping he outperforms the underlying metrics again this year like he did last year.
Taillon (2026): 16.2 IP, 17 K, 6 BB, 5 HR, 4.86 ERA, 6.28 FIP, 123 ERA-
Home runs have the biggest issue for Taillon, who’s in the fourth and final season of the contract that he signed with the Cubs as a free agent ahead of the 2023 season. After a poor first year with the team, he managed to put up a cumulative 3.45 ERA across the 2024 and 2025 seasons, though it’s worth noting that he only made 23 starts last year.
Sunday, April 19: David Peterson vs. Javier Assad, 2:20 PM EDT on SNY
Peterson (2026): 19.2 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 1 HR, 6.41 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 164 ERA-
Just how much you think Peterson is getting unlucky—if you think that at all—depends on which ERA predictor you prefer. FIP suggests that he’s been far better than his ERA would suggest. His 5.01 xERA doesn’t rate him nearly as well, but his 3.26 DRA aligns pretty closely with his FIP. Regardless of all of that, though, the Mets desperately need Peterson to pitch to better results.
Assad (2026): 10.0 IP, 6 K, 4 BB, 2 HR, 8.10 ERA, 5.76 FIP, 204 ERA-
If the Mets’ lineup still hasn’t awoken by Sunday, well, at least they’ll get to face a pitcher who’s struggled mightily in his first two starts. Assad only made eight appearances last year, but as has always been the case, he finished the season with an ERA in the mid-to-low threes. His velocity is up a couple miles per hour from the past two seasons, and he’s likely excited about the opportunity to face struggling Mets hitters as he attempts to improve his ugly ERA.
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