The Wild Ride Is Over
The front office is facing a hell of a dilemma due to the Red Sox historic 15-game winning streak. The team was completely written off by almost everyone, including yours truly, well before late June when they sported an abysmal 32-46 record. Then the Sox put their heads down and matched a franchise record by winning 15 straight games before finally losing to the Orioles in the second game of a doubleheader on Wednesday. Until they started rattling off wins, Craig Breslow was universally expected
to sell at the August 3 trade deadline—especially with stars like Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet sidelined on the injured list—but a breathtaking run vaulted the Red Sox straight into the third AL Wild Card spot.
That much we all know. Heck, we lived it. Before writing another word, I want to tip my cap to our guys, our “bunch of dogs” who want to win, and offer a genuine word of thanks. I predicted great things from them right up until March, and then soured on them almost immediately. No one was more surprised than me by this glorious accomplishment, so I feel like I owe it to this team to say something. I didn’t see it coming (even when I was bullish on them over the offseason), but they did it, and it was a hell of a ride. We may never see anything like that again from our beloved team in our lifetimes. It’s still sort of sinking in.
So what I’m about to write causes me pain, and as a fan, I don’t want it to be true. But here it is: I don’t believe the front office will be swept up in this euphoria to the extent that they’ll buy at the trade deadline. I think they’ll play it safe once again and do a little bit of buying and selling. That routine will look familiar to anyone who’s been around this team the past few seasons.
The Evidence
Rumors are linking them with Angels shortstop Zach Neto but the Red Sox are always in on the rumors game. It’s not a great fit (though it speaks worlds about the front office’s lack of confidence in Marcelo Mayer) and I believe the price will be too high.
I believe Jeff Passan was closer to reality when he said:
“For now, their plans are fluid. Boston isn’t discounting pursuing help before Aug. 3. The Red Sox also know that, for an entire half of the season, they personified mediocrity and that 15 games does not a season make.”
I think he’s being generous to describe their earlier play as “mediocrity” but overall, doesn’t that sound more like the Craig Breslow we know and love?
Breslow knows this team stumbled into the history books by the grace of the baseball gods. It happened at a perfect moment when the rest of the AL has also been pretty terrible. When call-ups like Anthony Seigler and Tsung-Che Cheng stepped up in the face of a slew of injuries. When Wilyer Abreu got hot at the right time. With a perfect suicide squeeze from Carlos Narváez. Clutch home runs by Caleb Durbin. Masataka Yoshida going on a tear. Everyone played a part.
But that’s kind of making the case for me: this group shouldn’t win. This group would never have come together if it weren’t for the string of untimely injuries that forced the team to rely on replacement players (who to their credit became key contributors), good timing, Willson Contreras’ big heart, and some amount of luck. When the rookie call-up pitcher who begins the game that might put you in the history books in your own right (not just as a tie) gets immediately optioned back to Triple-A after the streak ends, well, you can see how this was kind of put together with duct tape from the beginning. The team has essentially run out yet another Quad A lineup in many ways – except that in July, it happened to work! We saw alchemy right before our eyes. It shouldn’t work, but it did work.
Can the Magic Keep Going?
Lightning in a bottle probably only happens once. Don’t get me wrong; I love Seigler and his style of play and I devoutly hope that Contreras continues to be a bedrock and an inspiration for this team. This is not a knock on what has been, but a realistic assessment of what might lie in front of the team.
Neither Craig Breslow nor John Henry are going to get caught up in the emotional high of the 15-game streak because that’s not what they do. They don’t think or behave like fans, which is partly why they’re so infuriating.
Suppose that they did strengthen the roster. It might possibly play in the AL which is a weak, weak league this year. But even if they could make it through to the World Series, does anyone think they can out-roster the Dodgers? No way. Yes, relying on a strong rotation is a strategy in the postseason, especially in the short rounds. But several issues there: our own rotation has been, and is still, depleted by injuries, and our young arms are quickly about to bump against career highs in innings pitched. Also, teams still need to score runs, not just prevent them (we learned that lesson the hard way, all the way through June).
Trading long-term assets to bolster a team that is still deeply flawed, and deeply depleted—no matter how much they over-performed in July—doesn’t feel like something Henry and Breslow would do. The baseball gods stepped in for a while to make sure we didn’t forget how wonderful baseball is. Maybe they didn’t want soccer to have all the fun this summer. But Breslow won’t pay a premium to save a season that came back from the brink by the alignment of the stars.
That’s what fans want – myself included. How much different would our roster look right now if the front office listened to the fans? No need to answer that rhetorical question because we know it in our bones. They don’t listen, and they won’t buy.
To clarify, they won’t buy much and they won’t buy enough. Look for a some-of-this-and-some-of-that approach, as they try to satisfy both sides of the equation. It hasn’t worked in recent seasons and it won’t work this year either.
But we’ll always have those 15 games in July – the games that almost pushed ownership into thinking about being all-in buyers at the deadline.
