It’s time for UFC White House: The Octagon on the South Lawn.
Twelve months ago, the thought of the UFC holding an event at the actual frigging White House felt like a pipe dream despite the bold declarations of Dana White and his close buddy President Donald Trump. Tonight, with a gigantic claw hovering over the cage to accommodate a rare outdoor event for the promotion, actual MMA fights will take place at the historic landmark with all seven bouts having high stakes.
Will Ilia Topuria triumph in
his first fight in a year or can sentimental favorite Justin Gaethje finally climb to the very top of the lightweight ladder?
Is Alex Pereira about to make history by becoming the first man to capture UFC titles in three divisions or is Ciryl Gane destined for a grudge match with undisputed heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall?
Does Aiemann Zahabi really have a chance to beat Sean O’Malley? Is the Josh Hokit Show ready for primetime? Is Mauricio Ruffy guaranteed to style on Michael Chandler? Is Bo Nickal a real contender at middleweight? Will Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia be an instant Fight of the Year candidate?
And again, all of this is happening at THE WHITE HOUSE? Absurd. Soon we get to find out if any of Sunday’s fights can possibly live up to the unbelievable circumstances surrounding them.
What: UFC White House
Where: The White House in Washington, D.C.
When: Sunday, June 14. The seven-fight main card begins at 8 p.m. ET with the entire event streaming live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Picture this: Justin Gaethje, weathered and worn, locked in an extended battle with Ilia Topuria, the two warriors cracking away at each other in the championship rounds. Determination etched on Gaethje’s face, blood streaking down one side, an almost disturbing look in his eyes letting everyone know he’s willing to go farther than he’s ever gone to become the undisputed champion of the world.
He wears Topuria down. Brutal calf kicks. Rib-roasting body shots. The right hook finds a home. Again. And again. Topuria falls. The referee gives him every chance to recover, but Gaethje is relentless. Coffin nails. The fight is stopped.
Gaethje celebrates. It’s all a blur. He wants to do a flip off the cage wall, but can’t even figure out what direction the cage wall is in the chaos. Gold around his waist. A microphone in his face. A heartfelt, rambling speech, and then… retirement. Gaethje goes out on top.
OK. Dream scenario out of the way, the reality is that Topuria can’t lose this fight. He’s younger, technically superior on the feet, and might even be able to match Gaethje in the power punching department. I mean, Topuria put down Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway, two guys who beat Gaethje. The MMA Math never lies.
Part of what makes Gaethje’s style so appealing is his ability to take the hits and keep on going, but that’s not a viable strategy here. Topuria has a well-earned reputation as a sniper and it won’t take long for him to shut Gaethje down once he starts connecting. Gaethje is more than a one-dimensional brawler, but he still seeks that car crash thrill and won’t back down from Topuria even if it’s for his own good.
The fight that keeps coming to mind for me is Gaethje vs. Eddie Alvarez, the first man to defeat Gaethje. He never let Gaethje establish a rhythm, patiently broke him down, and then delivered the big finish in Round 3. I expect Toopuria to execute a similar game plan, only much faster.
Pick: Topuria
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Fine, I’ll say it. I don’t like Alex Pereira at heavyweight.
I’m fully aware there’s not much of a gap between light heavyweight and heavyweight these days, with several heavys just being light heavys that don’t want to cut weight (Josh Hokit, I’m looking at you). So “Poatan” moving up a division isn’t all that crazy from a physique and athleticism standpoint. Then you remember that Pereira has beaten agile opponents in the past, like Israel Adesanya, and Ciryl Gane starts to look like a favorable matchup.
Then you also remember that Pereira historically had a ton of trouble with Adesanya both in kickboxing and MMA, including in their first UFC fight that nearly ended in an Adesanya decision win before Pereira scored a late TKO. A speedy opponent with tricky striking and good defense? Sounds kind of like Gane.
No matter the division, Pereira is a threat to knock out anyone and Gane is no different. Gane’s striking defense is excellent, though, and it’s difficult to imagine him getting caught clean by a Pereira shot. Gane went toe-to-toe with Ngannou and turned him into a wrestler. Pereira is a better striker than Ngannou, but then you factor in that Gane is a true heavyweight while Pereira is having to bulk up to chase history. No, I don’t like it.
As cool is it would be to see a fighter win titles in three UFC divisions (interim still counts, technically!), I see Gane winning a decision and spoiling the Poatan party.
Pick: Gane
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Yes, Aiemann Zahabi can beat Sean O’Malley.
I’m definitely giving Zahabi too much credit because of the Firas Zahabi-Georges-St-Pierre connection, but it’s not completely crazy to think Zahabi could channel “GSP” and use a takedown-heavy strategy to pull off this upset, right? I mean, he hasn’t really done it before, but it’s possible!
Zahabi just knows how to win fights and that can take you a long way. Far enough to get past O’Malley? That’s another question. O’Malley is a potent striker with higher finishing potential, despite what his past few fights have shown. Don’t let the run of decisions fool you, there’s no shame in not being able to put away Merab Dvalishvili, Marlon Vera, and Song Yadong. If Zahabi leaves his chin out, O’Malley will find it.
As technically skilled as Zahabi is, his defense still leaves something to be desired, and that’s going to make the difference here. Zahabi got away with getting cracked by Aldo, but against the younger, fitter O’Malley, if he gets hurt early, it’s only going to get worse from there. Unless he can consistently take O’Malley down, Zahabi won’t win this.
O’Malley by knockout.
Pick: O’Malley
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
I think Josh Hokit the personality (or personalities, I guess?) is dumb. But Josh Hokit the fighter? Pretty damn entertaining!
Just 28 years old, we still don’t know if Hokit is actually championship material, but it can’t be overstated how impressive that win over Curtis Blaydes was. We already knew Hokit was a step above the middle of the heavyweight pack based on his first two UFC wins. Blaydes presented a huge step up in competition (seriously, look at who Blaydes has fought and look at who Hokit has fought) and Hokit just went at him for 15 minutes. It wasn’t pretty and there were more than a few moments where it looked like the result would go the other way, but Hokit got it done.
He’s one of the most athletic big men on the roster and now we get to see if he can power through a 41-year-old Derrick Lewis. “The Black Beast” has seen mixed results in recent years, at times looking like the UFC’s fearsome knockout king, at other times looking unmotivated and easily beatable. A best-case scenario sees Lewis either stuffing Hokit’s takedown attempts or shrugging off his attempts at ground offense and forcing a standup battle, because if that happens, Hokit won’t be able to eat Lewis’ shots like he did Blaydes’. Lewis could easily be the one to hand Hokit a concussive first loss.
Unfortunately for Lewis, his days of beating top 10 fighters is behind him. And believe it or not, that’s what Hokit is after getting past Blaydes. He’s going to rush Lewis, slice up his defenses, and bury him with ground-and-pound.
Pick: Hokit
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Trotting Michael Chandler out to get flatlined by a Conor McGregor clone instead of actually giving him the Conor McGregor fight is just cruel.
That’s a reductive way of describing Mauricio Ruffy, but the comparison exists for a reason. He’s light on his feet, keeps his hands low and, oh yeah, when he hits you clean, you usually stay down. Even Chandler’s iron chin will break down if he tries to just wade through Ruffy’s precision strikes. Will we finally see the return of D-1 All-American Chandler?
It’s amazing how the best version of Chandler in Bellator was so much more willing to take a tactical approach, and he hasn’t bothered to fight like that since joining the UFC. On the other hand, he keeps getting big fight after big fight and his popularity has only grown over the past few years, so he’s doing something right. What he’s not doing is winning and if he plans to stand and trade with Ruffy, that trend will surely continue.
Chandler made it to the White House on his own terms and he’s going to leave it on his own terms, which means he’s throwing down. And then going down. Hard.
Pick: Ruffy
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
My Best Friend Mike Heck has been riding the Kyle Daukaus upset train for months now and you know what? We ride together, we die together, Bad Boys for life.
It’s more than just a vibes pick. Bo Nickal is talented, we all know that, and his immense promise is starting to translate into real results. He’s more comfortable on the feet and he always has his elite wrestling to fall back on. So far, he hasn’t come close to putting it all together against meaningful competition, but maybe that starts with Daukaus.
The problem is Daukaus won’t give him time to figure things out. Daukaus fights like a man in a hurry and for good reason. A year ago, he wasn’t even in the UFC; now, he’s fighting in front of the President of the United States. Life comes at you fast and Daukaus is embracing the moment. He’s not looking to outwork Nickal and win on the cards, he’s hunting for that first-round finish. Will this bring out the best in Nickal or completely throw him off his game?
Pushing the pace early could benefit Daukaus even if he doesn’t end things in Round 1. We saw Nickal struggle under duress in the Reinier de Ridder fight and if things aren’t going his way, he could wilt again. Tonight, we find out if Nickal is an actual fighter or just a martial artist, if you get what I mean.
Daukaus for the win.
Pick: Daukaus
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Let’s just assume this fight is happening and Diego Lopes isn’t being called up to fight in the main event. So weird.
I guarantee these dudes “understand the assignment,” as the kids say. Expect Lopes and Steve Garcia to come out swinging, at least to start. These two aren’t just hard-swinging knuckleheads, but they won’t be able to resist the temptation of kicking off this UFC White House Card without at least a couple of breathtaking exchanges.
When the action settles down, Lopes should utilize his slick grappling to minimize the risk of Garcia catching him with a stray strike. Lopes’ gung-ho style sometimes make people forget how well-rounded and experienced he is, and it’s his fight to lose depending how much he decides to mix the martial arts. Garcia will look to pressure throughout the fight, which should keep this one entertaining.
Lopes via decision.
Pick: Lopes
