If the Green Bay Packers want to win on Sunday, then they need to make sure Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy continues to look like one of the worst quarterbacks in football.
That’s not hyperbole
or even an unfair shot at a divisional rival’s QB. When on the field, McCarthy has been one of the worst quarterbacks in football, and the Packers can’t afford to let second-year QB get any kind of momentum, either in the short and long term.
Through five games, McCarthy is completing just 52.9 percent of his passes, averaging 6.0 yards per attempt with six touchdowns against eight interceptions. His passer rating of 61.7 ranks 45th out of 46 qualified quarterbacks, and his advanced metrics are just as bad.
According to NFELO, McCarthy has the third-worst EPA per dropback in the league, ahead of just Jake Browning and Cooper Rush, and he has the second-worst success rate ahead of only Dillon Gabriel. RBSDM is just as low on the Vikings quarterback, with him ranking dead last in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and EPA per play.
McCarthy is struggling to read defenses or even throw accurate passes. He has the second-lowest on-target rate in the league (ahead of only Davis Mills at 59.9 percent) and can get caught staring down receivers, allowing defenders to drift off of their assignments to jump passes.
This isn’t the kind of game where the Packers and defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can afford to let the opposing quarterback get going. The good news is that Green Bay currently has a top-1o defense by DVOA, according to FTN Fantasy, but are closer to the middle of the pack as the 13th-ranked pass defense.
Generating pressure on McCarthy and disguising coverages will be key to make sure the Vikings QB is as uncomfortable as possible. Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary, and the Packers’ defensive front will need to bring their A-game, especially with an opportunity to feast against an offensive line that ranks 22nd in pass block win rate.
If the pressure can’t get home, it will be on the secondary to prevent wide-open throwing windows to Minnesota’s talented WR duo in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The silver lining is that even if those two are able to get open, it’s not a guarantee that McCarthy will be able to get them the ball.
At this point in his career, McCarthy doesn’t look like a starting-caliber quarterback, and the Packers need to take advantage of that. If they’re unable to do so, then Sunday’s game could end up being a disappointing one, and one that could have major playoff implications in the NFC North race.
