Numbers never lie, right?
There are so many statistics to parse through during the NFL season that some can be misleading. After each game, it’s a good exercise to review NFL “Next Gen Stats” and “Premium Stats” from Pro Football Focus and find the numbers that paint a picture not only of the game, but of what to expect from the Kansas City Chiefs moving forward.
Here are three statistics from the Week 1 win over the Denver Broncos and what they could mean for the rest of the season:
1. The Chiefs generated pressure on 46% of dropbacks
That was the fourth-highest
rate of any NFL team in Week 1, looking up in the rankings at only the Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. It’s a good group to be in.
The Chiefs blitzed on nearly one-third of the pass plays the team faced. However, when you take away those reps, Kansas City still generated pressure on 36% of pass plays. That ranked 10th among all NFL teams while rushing only four players.
The reason this number has staying power is the opponent: the Broncos were the NFL’s best team at keeping quarterback Bo Nix off the turf and away from pressure last season. In Week 1, the Chiefs generated four sacks, while Denver allowed an average of 1.4 sacks per game last year.
2. The Chiefs’ offense faced 8 or more men in the box on 14 plays
Only the Ravens and Las Vegas Raiders faced heavy, packed defensive formations more frequently than the Chiefs did in Week 1.
The game script, especially in the fourth quarter, certainly helps explain the high number, but it also shows the gravity of running back Kenneth Walker (and rookie Emmett Johnson) when they run the ball as efficiently and explosively as they did on Monday night. The Chiefs averaged 7 yards per carry when the Broncos presented a light box to defend the run; as the game wore on, Denver needed to bring more players close to the line of scrimmage.
As less-talented pass defenses are forced to respect the run this season, the Chiefs will have more opportunities to throw the ball behind crept-up linebackers and safeties.
3. L’Jarius Sneed had a league-leading 3 ‘Hustle Stops’
According to Next Gen Stats, a “Hustle Stop” is a tackle that results in negative EPA for the defense in which the defender covered 20 yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle.
Sneed finished Week 1 tied for third-most solo tackles among all NFL players (7). If you thought the veteran cornerback, in his first year back with the Chiefs, was flying around against Denver, the numbers back it up.
It’s a very encouraging sign for a pass defense that looked sharp on the outside. Rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane may have had only one drive to contribute, but the outside cornerback group — mostly Nohl Williams and Kristian Fulton — performed strongly against a talented receiving corps. The group forced five incompletions and committed no penalties.
Sneed’s strengths as a player are centered on being physical. If Kansas City has the youth on the outside to match up with top receiving threats, Sneed will continue to simply be a playmaker out of the slot for the Chiefs.
