Fundamentally, there are two questions to ask about an NBA roster: How much talent do they have, and how well does that talent synergize?
There’s no reasonable debate to have over which variable is more
important. You’d rather have a hyper-talented team with ill-fitting pieces than a bad team that fits. There is a question of degree. In the age of parity, it’s an ever-growing question. Can depth beat out top-end talent?
It’s hard to find a case study, too. The Thunder won the title this year. OK – they have arguably the best player in the NBA and (almost) inarguably the best-fitting, deepest squad. It’s a maximalist approach:
More? Yes.
If we’re parsing everything out, fit and depth are separate variables as well. Depth is the 1A: How much talent do you have, and how talented is the talent?
The Rockets have been good on that front. After aggregating as much talent as possible through the draft, the Rockets had a surplus.
At times, the fit between each piece has felt questionable. Last year, the question was this: How does a low-efficiency, high-volume shooter like Jalen Green fit alongside two non-shooters in Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun?
Kevin Durant was a band-aid solution. That’s not a criticism – a gaping wound needs to be bandaged – but it’s a reality. Yes, two non-shooters can co-exist alongside one of the best shooters ever, but what happens when Durant retires?
Well, Reed Sheppard’s emergence as a sophomore provides at least one path forward.
Rockets’ Reed Sheppard could be an all-time shooter
Yes, I know.
Sengun is a shooter now. It’s beautiful. He’s still low volume enough to suggest that, alongside Thompson, it would be optimal to have an elite shooter in the mix.
That’s what Sheppard needs to be to justify his draft selection – an elite shooter. He’s always going to be small. That’s always going to be an issue. Yes, Sheppard has other gifts. His ability to rack up stocks is incredible. He’s a deft passer. Still, those are multiplier skills. Shooting is the foundation of his game. A small guard who makes defensive plays and good passing reads is a rotation player, but if that same guy is an elite shooter, it could be a star.
Luckily, he’s been an elite shooter this year.
That doesn’t just mean a high raw 3PT%, although Sheppard’s 47.8% on 5.8 attempts per game would make Mona Lisa blush. Yet, a more thorough breakdown of his shooting makes him look even more impressive.
The secret sauce is Sheppard’s efficient pull-up shooting. He’s knocking down 52.4% of his pull-up threes this summer. The volume is low (1.8 attempts per game) by virtue of Sheppard’s role and playing time, but if we assume he’ll remain efficient on more attempts, it virtually guarantees stardom.
Here are the top five players in made pull-up threes in 2025-26: James Harden (yes, that James Harden), Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey, and Donovan Mitchell. This isn’t complicated. Pull-up threes are hard. They warp the geometry of the floor, and guys who can hit them in large volume are almost unequivocally stars.
Here’s another fun Sheppard fact. Sheppard is hitting just 28.6% of his 1.8 attempts that NBA.com qualifies as “open”. He’s hitting 45.5% of the 0.9 threes per game that qualify as “tightly defended” (closest defender 2-4 feet away). That’s right. Sheppard shoots like your unassuming roommate who secretly just submitted a Love Island audition: He craves attention.
It’s another starry quality. Shooting is the most fundamental basketball skill, and that’s why it’s the most portable. An elite shooter could be a superstar or a role player. What matters is how the shots come, and Sheppard is shooting like a star.
Remember how the Warriors won the 2017-18 NBA championship despite Draymond Green hitting 26.6% of his playoff threes? Steph Curry shoots for two. From a functional perspective, Sheppard can be the Rockets’ Curry. From the point of view of being such a dynamic shooter that he scrambles defenses, he has the potential to get there.
If Sheppard is the poor man’s Curry, Thompson can be the Rockets’ average man’s (?) Green. Sengun breaks the analogy, unless he’s like…a billionaire’s Andrew Bogut?
In theory, this trio should be able to buoy the Rockets after Durant. Surround them with shooters and defenders, and you’re good. Jabari Smith Jr. is already locked in on reasonable money. I have a recurring nightmare where Tari Eason leaves next summer, but that’s a subject for therapy. Otherwise, if Sheppard continues trending in the direction that he does, the Rockets have their future big three:
And they’re perfectly synergetic.
