As September comes to a close, it should be no surprise to anyone that the college quarterback landscape we were previewing this summer has all but flipped on its head. How’s that old saying go? That’s
why they play the games.
But it’s not just our pre-season perceptions that have changed. We’ve also received an injury update this week that will sideline one of the college football season’s early stars. Let’s dive in.
Riser of the Week
Jayden Maiava
The result: Michigan State 31 — USC 45
The stats: 20-26 (76.9%), 234 yards, 3 TDs, 1 Big Time Throws, 0 Turnover Worthy Plays, 7.0 ADoT, 0 sacks
4 rushes, 31 yards, 7.8 ypc, 2 TDs
Maiava didn’t receive many votes in our Quarterback Dating Game series over the summer. That isn’t too surprising, considering he took over the starting role in Week 12 last year. We just didn’t have a ton to go off of. Maiava still might be flying under the radar nationally, as USC’s games have mostly been after people on the East Coast have gone to bed.
After three relatively uncompetitive contests to open their season, Maiava and USC took their first step up in competition by outlasting a Michigan State team that was 2-1 and looks much improved in year two under head coach Jonathan Smith and quarterback Aidan Chiles. Chiles looks like he’s taken a big step forward, but probably should return to school, when he could be one of the top prospects for the 2027 draft if he continues his current trajectory. Michigan State had the game within one touchdown at the start of the 4th quarter before the Trojans pulled away to close it out.
But enough about the Spartans. Maiava is the passer I’m increasingly impressed with. If you haven’t watched much of USC this year, their offense is built around their running game, with three running backs rushing for more than 150 yards through four games: Waymond Jordan (443), Eli Sanders (250), and King Miller (152). Maiava has been expertly guiding the offense around that strength. He leads the team in rushing touchdowns (4), despite only rushing for 63 yards himself.
Maiava is mobile enough that defenses need to account for it, and he — along with Chiles — is one of my favorite college quarterbacks to watch execute play action this season. Maiava and USC have run play action on 34% of his dropbacks this year, and they’ve been highly productive doing so. On those throws, Maiava is completing 75.8% of his passes for 370 yards and 5 touchdowns, at an 8.9 average depth of target.
Maiva has looked decisive so far and, to my eye, he throws one of the more catchable balls in college. The USC offense funnels its passing attack through junior receiver Makai Lemon, but 16 different Trojans have caught a pass so far this season. Last Saturday, they scored on seven of their 10 drives. The three drives they didn’t were: on downs when Lemon was tackled just short of the sticks, on a fumble after a completion, and a punt on USC’s final drive following three runs.
USC’s next four games will be a great proving ground for us to evaluate how high Maiava’s stock could climb. Now ranked No. 21, USC’s immediate slate includes No. 23 Illinois, No. 19 Michigan, No. 22 Notre Dame, and an unranked Nebraska team that is on the come-up and whose only loss was by three points to Michigan. A Nov. 22nd game against Oregon also looms.
Mateer’s Heisman buzz hits a snag
In a thrilling first month, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer had established himself as one of the most entertaining players in college football and an early Heisman frontrunner. The Sooners should be riding high after beating then No. 22 Auburn and climbing up to No. 7 in this week’s AP poll.
Instead, news broke this week that Mateer — who finished the game — broke a bone in his throwing hand during the first quarter of Saturday’s game, and that he’s expected to miss a month after successfully undergoing surgery.
The Sooners don’t play this weekend. Their next game will come against Kent State, which should be winnable even with a backup quarterback. But what really stings for Oklahoma and Mateer is that he’ll miss the Red River Rivalry game against Texas on October 11. This robs college football of one of its biggest stars playing in one of the more esteemed rivalry games the sport has to offer, and in a year when both programs have lofty expectations.
This could leave a dent in any hopes of the Heisman for Mateer, but the Sooners schedule down the stretch could loft him right back in the discussion if he can shake of the rust quickly. Oklahoma will face LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina on October 18, and then finish against five currently ranked teams: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.
Bits and bobs
- Our “Prove It Game of the Week” will feature Oregon’s Dante Moore vs. Penn State’s Drew Allar. Moore has been one of the more impressive quarterbacks over the first month, albeit against teams that shouldn’t have been particularly challenging for a program like Oregon. Allar and the Nittany Lions didn’t have a game last weekend, but Allar has not shown any signs of improvement from where he was last season. Penn State has beaten up on Nevada, Florida International, and Villanova, but Allar has mostly let his defense and rushing attack do the heavy lifting. If Moore can look as comfortable against Penn State’s defense as he has over the first month of the season, he could seriously enter the Heisman conversation and QB1 conversation. If Allar can show more anticipation and touch on his throws, and produce against an Oregon that should be in the playoff hunt again, it will go a long way towards shutting me up.
- Speaking of prove it games, Fernando Mendoza and Indiana took the previously No. 9-ranked Illinois to the woodshed in a 63-10 drubbing. For the second straight week Mendoza threw five touchdowns and he has yet to throw an interception this season. Mendoza’s processing ability is going to be a difficult evaluation this winter, as Indiana’s offense revolves around a TON of RPOs and first-read designed plays. That said he shows great touch on his downfield throws and he has the Hoosier offense humming. With Mateer out a month, Mendoza could enter the Heisman conversation if he can continue to perform at this level and put up these kind of touchdown numbers. The Hoosiers play Iowa this weekend and will have another big “Prove It Game” on October 11 against Oregon.
- LSU and Garrett Nussmeier were efficient in their 56-10 blowout of FCS division Southeastern Louisiana. Nussmeier had his first multi-touchdown game of the season. The Tigers’ defense is legit, but the offense has struggled to get in rhythm thus far. LSU is facing some early allegations that they might be a Paper Tiger, with the Clemson and Florida wins not looking as impressive based on how those teams have looked through the first month of the season. LSU and Nussmeier will now look to prove they’re for real against a tough SEC slate that opens with a game against No. 13 Ole Miss this weekend, and Sellers and South Carolina on October 11.
- Speaking of Sellers, he returned after being knocked out of the previous game with a concussion. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, they were unable to pull out a win against No. 20 Missouri, falling 29-20. Sellers had an impressive statistical showing — 302 yards, 2 touchdowns, 64.3% completion — but he got away with at least two throws that were caught out of bounds/dropped interceptions, and he wasn’t able to create with his legs like he usually does. While I think Sellers would benefit from returning to college next year, I think his physical profile could land him at QB1 regardless.
- Cade Klubnik had his best game of a disappointing Clemson season — 363 yards passing and three touchdowns, albeit on a whopping 61 attempts — and the Tigers still lost to Syracuse. Could time be running out for Dabo in Death Valley? This is one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far, and Klubnik’s stock has fallen significantly.
- Speaking of, Sam Leavitt and Sawyer Robertson both continue to play erratically. Leavitt should go back to school next year, and Robertson is still not a first-round level quarterback talent in my opinion. Arizona State and Leavitt got the win in this one, but both quarterbacks continue to fall down my board.
- Arch Manning started to get some mojo back in the second half against Sam Houston, but I’m not sure we can take much from this 55-0 victory until he can produce and operate more consistently against the bigger competition. Texas takes on Florida this weekend in a game that’s lost some luster after Florida’s struggles.
- The Carson Beck revival story hit it’s first snag last weekend. Miami was able to pull out the win against Florida — they keep coming up huh? — but Beck struggled. The transfer quarterback completed 56.7% of his passes for just 160 yards, no touchdowns and a bad interception. Miami’s defense and rushing attack carried the day, and it will likely be a distant memory if the Hurricanes’ push for the college football playoffs continues how we expect. That said, it’s a reminder of how streaky Beck can be. Miami plays Florida State on October 4th.
- Speaking of Florida State, Alabama’s loss to the Seminoles is looking a whole lot better than it did then, even with their upset loss to Virginia. Ty Simpson has had strong showings in Bama’s two games since. Sure it’s Louisiana Monroe and a 2-2 Wisconsin squad, but Simpson has thrown more touchdowns (7)in that span than incompletions (5). Put a pin in this and let’s revist later.
- Taylen Green and Arkansas are a fun watch, and the speedy and lanky quarterback can put up some tantalizing highlights. But there’s still too much inconsisteny as a passer for me to think he elevates beyond a Day 2 or Day 3 prospect. He looks better than he was a year ago, and that counts for something, and Arkansas’ losses to Ole Miss and Memphis were both one-score losses. Arkansas’ next four games come against No. 22 Notre Dame, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 9 Texas A&M and a talented Auburn squad.
- Following up on a note from last week: Texas Tech’s Behren Morton was knocked out of the game against Utah and the the Red Raiders offense appeared to get better with backup Will Hammond.
- Tennessee and Joey Aguilar beat up on UAB. But despite protests in our comment section to the contrary, I still saw an offense that puts wide receivers on a island with some college-unique spacing. Aguilar had three touchdowns and and interception this week, and I admit he has a good frame. I want to see more and games against Arkansas, Alabama, and Oklahoma still on the schedule will be huge for his draft stock.
What do you think of these prospects? Have any of them moved up your big board? Let us know in the comments!
