Last week, the San Diego Padres annihilated the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. It wasn’t a nuke from orbit situation, either. The Padres went into the thick of it and punched every Giant so hard that his ancestor felt it. It was as thorough a humiliation as you’re likely to see by a division opponent, but as with all things Giants & Padres, it would’ve felt worse had it involved the Dodgers.
Because the Giants were such helpless losers against San Diego, the Padres captured first place in the NL
West ahead of a weekend showdown with Shohei Ohtani & some guys. They went into Los Angeles with maximum swagger and were promptly swept out of first place. They’ll host the Giants in Petco Park for the next four days, and there’s a chance that this week repeats last week and the Padres do so well against the Giants that they find themselves back in first place just in time to face the Dodgers again this weekend.
Unless the Giants make them really nervous.
Look, the Giants’ big win yesterday shouldn’t be viewed as a pivot point in the season. It was just their 8th home win in 30 games (a span of exactly two months). They’re just 2-13 in their last two homestands. But the Giants have the ingredients to be a thorn in the side of any baseball team. Theoretically, they are not as bad as the White Sox, Nationals, and Rockies, even as they’ve played as bad or worse than any of those also-rans; and, as a division rival of the Padres, you’d like to think that they’d get up for a series that could put another dent in San Diego’s confidence.
Their brief time atop the NL West was the first time they’d been in first place this late in a season since 2010, the year the Giants famously ran them down in September to win the division and go on to win the World Series. Of course, none of the current Padres were there for that, but all they know is that their competition is the Dodgers, who they never can beat.
The Padres have won the last four season series against the Giants, including this season where they’re already 7-2. Now, I’m not suggesting that the Giants are in a position to sweep the Padres (thus equaling last year’s 7-6 season series in favor of San Diego), but if they split or win the series, that’s only going to make it tougher for the Padres in their quest to unseat the Dodgers for the division crown. Losing two games at home to a team that you just pulverized? That would make any team question just how good it is.
There are a couple of quirks in this series that didn’t exist last week. Jackson Merrill suffered a left ankle strain which might cause him to miss game one of the series. He was 6-for-13 with a homer and a pair of doubles at Oracle Park. He got hurt in game one of the Dodgers series (after a 2-for-4 with a double) and was 0-for the rest of the series. Although the Padres will be (probably) starting two lefties — Nestor Cortes in game one and, possibly, former Athletic J.P. Sears on Wednesday or Thursday — the Giants have Christian Koss and Tyler Fitzgerald and the roster this week. Now, these guys aren’t game changers, but they both offer different dimensions at the plate that other teams need to respect a little bit: scrappy contact in the case of Koss, power in the case of Fitzgerald.
It’s not that the Giants have gotten over the hump against left-handed pitching, but confidence goes a long way, and if Koss can slash a couple of hits to the opposite field, ahead of Ramos, Adames, and Devers, that makes a big difference. On top of that, Jung Hoo Lee has been hot all month. He’s slashing .339/.373/.518 since August 1st (59 PA) with just 6 strikeouts. On the season, he’s hitting .270 against lefties.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Where: Petco Park | San Diego, California
When: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday at 6:40pm PT, Thursday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcasts for out of market viewers (Tuesday & Wednesday)
Projected starters
Monday: Robbie Ray (LHP 9-6, 2.98 ERA) vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP 1-1, 5.71 ERA)
Tuesday: Kai-Wei Teng (RHP 1-2, 9.90 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP 12-4, 2.87 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 7-6, 3.45 ERA) vs. TBD
Thursday: Justin Verlander (RHP 1-9, 4.23 ERA) vs. TBD
Where they stand
Giants: 60-64, 3rd in NL West; 6.0 GB Wild Card, 11.0 GB NLW
Padres: 69-55, 2nd in NL West; currently WC #2, 2.0 GB NLW
Prediction time
If you’re a Padres fan, you almost certainly believe that this will be a walk in the park. An easy 3-1 series win or a pretty easy sweep. If you’re a Padres player, you’re probably thinking, “I know I’m supposed to take it one game at a time and never underestimate my opponent, but these guys haven’t beaten us in four years and just last week we made them all look like stinky little leaguers,” which could cut either way. They could try a little less, assuming victory is guaranteed. But Manny Machado doesn’t assume and he never takes his opponent for granted. I think he likes to be the aggressor.
All the more reason why I’d love to predict the Giants at least split the series and make the Padres a little dizzy with confusion — “Are we a good team?” “Can we beat the Dodgers? We couldn’t even beat the Giants — at home!” The season isn’t over just yet, and before the Giants plan their offseason vacations, they should try very hard to stay alive and present at least for this week, when they’ll face the Padres and Dodgers. They’re not better than either team, but they can certainly make both teams question just how good they are. As the great Maria Bamford reminds us, “if you stay alive for no other reason, please do it for spite.”
