Series Preview/Know your Foe: New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

After a yo-yo 4-game set against the vaunted Angels, the Astros now gear up to welcome…a three-game set against the playoff-chasing New York Yankees to close out the 10-game homestand

Yankees Record:

76-61 (3rd in AL East, 2.5 Games Back). Tied for 1st AL WC (3.0 games up on SEA. Would lose tiebreaker to Rex Sox if tied at the end of the year).
Road Record: 35-33 (Astros Home Record 42-30)
Record vs. AL West: 18-10 (Astros vs AL East: 14-12)

Record since last meeting: 14-5 (HOU: 10-10)
Last 10: 7-3 [LLWWWWWWWL] (HOU: 6-4 [WWLLWWWLLW])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 1-2 (@NYY Aug 8-10)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 50-35
Playoff Record: 5-13 (2015 WC (L): 0-1; 2017 ALCS (L): 3-4; 2019 ALCS (L): 2-4; 2022 ALCS (L): 0-4)

Yankees Since Last Meeting: After losing that series to Houston, the Yankees have generally played better. They are back within legitimate striking distance of the AL East lead they squandered back in June. Granted, most of their recent success came from taking care of business against teams under .500

(Cardinals, Twins, Nationals, White Sox). They did lose the season series against the hated Red Sox, which may have Wild Card implications. Boone and Cashman seemingly have quieted the calls for their jobs/heads, for now, but if they can’t get at least home field advantage for the Wild Card round, those gents may not want to look at their social media feeds (or at least, less than they usually do). As for on the field, Judge is starting to get back into a groove after losing time due to injury. The pitching staff is still a bit unsettled, but there are some emerging threats for the September run. All in all, the Yankees might feel a bit better about themselves now vs. when they last faced Houston.

Yankees Leaders:

Offense [All stats reflect those eligible for the Batting Title unless otherwise noted]:

HR: OF Aaron Judge (43)
RBI: OF Aaron Judge (97)
BA: OF Aaron Judge (.324)
OPS: OF Aaron Judge (1.117)

Pitching [All stats reflect those eligible for the ERA Title unless otherwise noted]:

ERA: Max Fried (3.06) [For non-ERA eligible pitchers, relief pitcher Luke Weaver sports a 2.60 ERA across 52 games]
Wins: Carlos Rondon (15)
Saves: Devin Williams (18)
WHIP: Carlos Rondon (1.08) [For non-ERA eligible pitchers, relief pitcher Luke Weaver leads the team with a 0.87 WHIP]

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

Tuesday, Sept 2 @ 7:10 CDT: Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA)
Wednesday, Sept 3 @ 7:10 CDT: Will Warren (8-6, 4.30 ERA) vs. Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.61 ERA)
Thursday, Sept 4 @ 6:40 CDT: Carlos Rondon (15-7, 3.18 ERA) vs. Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA)

Yankees Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Austin Wells (.210/.267/.429)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt (.278/.328/.420)
2B: Jazz Chisholm (.238/.339/.487)
3B: Ryan McMahon (.217/.316/.388)
SS: Anthony Volpe (.210/.274/.404)
LF: Jasson Dominguez (.255 /.328/.390)
CF: Cody Bellinger (.279/.333/.504)
RF: Aaron Judge (.324/.443/.674)
DH: Giancarlo Stanton (.295/.374/.624)

Yankees Offense: With a lineup encompassing Judge, Stanton and Bellinger, it should come as no surprise that the Yankees are among the league leaders in runs (1st), OBP (3rd) and slugging (1st). They are 10th in BA, but clearly that is not holding the offense back. They lead the league with 233 HRs, but again, consider who is in the lineup. Judge likely will not get that Triple Crown, as he is sitting second chair to Big Dumper in HRs and RBIs in the AL. Still, Judge is Judge, and few will be surprised if he brings home his 3^rd AL MVP award in the past 4 seasons. Bellinger is still on pace to cash-in bigly yuge this offseason with his on-field performance. However, can that offense perform against the playoff-caliber teams? They still rate 11^th in stolen bags, so their running game does help them out.

Yankees Pitching/Defense: In this three-game set, Houston is slated to face-off against Fried and Rondon, two of the pillars of the Yankees rotation. Yet, it is entirely possible that Houston will dodge the best starter on the Yankees’ staff. Cam Schlittler is the hottest starter on the Yankees’ staff, sporting a 2.61 ERA and having surrendered only 1 run in his last two starts (12.0 innings, 16Ks). Currently, the Yankees’ staff ranks 15th in ERA and 13th in WHIP. They do rate 3rd in BAA, so that is encouraging for the staff. This also accounts for the issues at closer for the Yankees. Devin Williams still struggles with closing out games, only saving 1 game since the Houston series and he blew his 4th save of the season in his last game action against the White Sox. Luke Weaver is the bullpen ace, but at this point, Boone has not shifted him to closer. Will that be the case come playoffs? As for defense, the Yankees commit the 10th most errors and are 13th in defensive runs saved. They still have a habit of committing the dumb play in the field, which is not lessening the pressure on the Yankees.

Most Dangerous Player: CF Cody Bellinger. Sure, you could say Judge, but his performances against Houston are a bit inconsistent. Bellinger received this title last time. In the last series against the Astros, Bellinger went 2-of-12 with no RBIs. However, he is batting .444 with 2 HRs and 8 RBIs in his last seven. Plus, the whole Correa/Houston nexus might fire up the free-agent-to-be. Likely other Yankees are eager to have a better time in Houston than they did in the Bronx when they last faced the Astros. Then again, given the Astros’ wildly inconsistent offense, it may not take all that much for any Yankee to be a threat to Houston’s chances for victory.

Intangibles: Given that the Yankees went 14-5 in the games since they last faced Houston, things should be more positive around the Yankees. However, that record is tempered by the 1-3 performance against Boston when they hosted the Red Sox in the Bronx. While the playoff chances are still pretty solid for the Yankees, there are some legitimate questions about the Yankees’ playoff viability. Boone and Cashman do not get much leeway to begin with, but the summer swoon from the Yankees only increased the pressure. Also, the Yankees are exercising some caution with Judge in the field vs. DH, as they can ill afford Judge’s elbow issues The 16-year World Series drought may likely become 17, and that is unthinkable for the Bronx faithful. They have time to solidify the playoff position and reclaim the East. However, if 2025 does not end with the Commissioner’s Trophy back in the Bronx, it doesn’t matter.

Series Outlook: The last time the Astros beat the Yankees in Houston, Alex Bregman’s three-run homer secured the win in Game 2 of the 2022 ALCS. Since that game, the Yankees are 7-0 at Minute Maid/Daikin Park. Houston does not come into this matchup on the greatest of highs, even if they are 4-3 in this recent homestand. August saw Houston struggle to plate runs and while the pitching wasn’t horrible, the lack of runs renders all performances practically null. Alvarez is back in the lineup and the squad reintroduced Luis Garcia back to the rotation. However, the Astros are treading water, at best. They clinched a losing August (13-15), and this on top of a losing July (12-13). Only the fact that Seattle can’t seem to play quality ball on the road is keeping Houston in 1st in the AL West. There is too much talent in the Houston lineup for their offensive struggles at home, or for this lineup to remain dormant for long. Maybe the fact that the Yankees don’t have a low-tier rotation might be a change that gets Houston going. Certainly the Yankees come into this series on a better run, but they bring just as many questions into the matchup. No shortage of drama awaits.

NATIONAL COVERAGE (Hmmm, New York Yankees + Playing hated Astros x Playoff implications = All of the games get national coverage)