The Guardians are playing sudoku with their long-term roster plan, using hints we can’t easily see. Actually, pretty much any organization worth its salt treats roster management eerily similar to a sudoku puzzle. I’ll elaborate on that strange claim, of course, but before I do, let’s take a look at the unique mechanics of the puzzle the Guardians are trying to solve… The rules of the roster puzzle. If I’m Chris Antonetti or Mike Chernoff, I probably have this image (or one like it) pinned to a wall
near my desk:
13 MLB hitters. 13 MLB pitchers. And at least 7 depth options stashed in the upper minors who could contribute at the MLB level if needed. This is what a major league ballclub needs in order to compete for a playoff berth, and ultimately, a World Series.
So what does “solving” this puzzle look like? Here’s my best effort at describing the objective:
Put together a roster with the best possible chance of winning a World Series within the next four years.
Winning a title is the organization’s stated goal, they’re currently contenders on paper, and it’s exponentially more difficult to accurately predict what the team will look like any further down the road than 2029. This parameter also lines up well with the fact that several of their MLB regulars become free agents after the 2029 season.
It’s a daunting puzzle, obviously. But much like sudoku, the puzzle starts with a couple of freebies.
The Proven Core
Like any team, the Guardians already have several proven MLB veterans they can rely on for relatively predictable production in any given year. Here’s what the puzzle looks like after adding those players…
All of these players are under team control through 2029, and barring major injuries or extremely dramatic performance decline, all seven will be on every Opening Day roster (and playoff roster) for the next four seasons.
With these seven players, over 20% of the puzzle is complete. It doesn’t seem like much, but as with sudoku, it’s enough to get started. And there are some exciting players that fit in nicely around them on the roster.
The Safe Bets
The next group of answers comes in the form of some players who have less experience, but have shown enough talent and staying power to merit a long, long leash at the MLB level.
These six players are worth plugging into the puzzle with confidence. While there’s some risk that they won’t pan out, they’re such safe bets that it’s worth committing to them for the foreseeable future, and building the rest of the puzzle around them. That’s good news, because it gets much trickier from here.
The Gotta See ‘Ems
The third group of players are all prospects, which means they introduce something new to the equation: genuine bust risk. The truth is, even Top 100 prospects only develop into average MLB regulars about 25% of the time.
Still, when you’re an organization with a long window of contention ahead and one of your top prospects fills an organizational need, the responsible thing to do is to see what they can do, and stick with them as long as you can.
These six prospects are all less than a year away from the big leagues, and have the potential to be top ten players at their positions. In the case of the relievers, it’s easy to carve out a spot for all of them.
For each of the position players, however, there isn’t a clear path to everyday playing time as of right now. So while the responsible thing to do is give them time to develop at the MLB level, tough decisions will eventually need to be made. Is being part-timers in MLB a good use of their value? Or will they (or someone blocking them) need to be traded to fill an area of greater need?
In order to make that decision, we probably need to fill in more of the puzzle.
The Chance Earners
Not every answer in a puzzle feels perfect when you write it in. The Guardians have a few players who have shown flashes of potential through some inconsistencies. While they may not all be extraordinarily exciting in terms of ceiling, they’ve all shown enough to prove they deserve a job for the time being.
Kahlil Watson is still at AAA, but tearing it up despite a somewhat flawed approach at the plate. David Fry is more of a DH than a left fielder, but so is Ralphy Velazquez, and they both fit well into this puzzle. Kyle Manzardo has been absolutely terrible in 2026, but he showed potential in 2026; Angel Martinez is the reverse of that.
Remarkably, most of the 26-man roster is filled by this point. And every player here is under team control through at least 2029, with the exception of David Fry (2028).
With that said, three questions remain:
1. How do we fill that last SP and RP spot?
2. Who’s our depth?
3. What do we do with the rest of the players currently on the roster or in the upper minors?
#2 is the easiest to answer, so let’s start there.
The Fringe Major Leaguers
Like any team, the Guardians have a few players who have been given all the opportunity in the world to prove themselves at the MLB level, but never really panned out.
With depth roles, there’s a limitation simply because players have a limited number of options. So unlike previous pieces of the puzzle, depth is more of a short-term outlook.
Slade Cecconi’s inclusion here was a difficult call, but at this point, he has a 5.14 ERA and 4.79 FIP across 281 career innings. We pretty much know who he is, and it’s not a dependable major league pitcher.
The Interesting Enoughs
The bar isn’t high for depth pieces. All an organization really needs from a depth spot is a guy who has enough talent to put up quality at bats/pitch quality innings, but it’s a nice bonus if that player has the potential to become an MLB mainstay.
CJ Kayfus gets the nod here for having more options than Valera. Juan Brito makes the cut in spite of his prospect stock tanking after a dreadful first look in MLB.
For long-term depth relievers, I actually had to go all the way down to the AA level because the AAA bullpen is so terrible outside of Aleman/Espino/Walters. Fortunately, depth relievers are pretty easy to come by, and the Guardians are good at spinning straw into gold in this department anyway.
So how do we go about filling the last SP and RP slot? Here’s my best effort.
The Whatever Remains
These two players are the best long-term options that the Guardians have in house.
Stephen has struggled with command in AAA, but has a much higher ceiling in general than Cecconi. Herrin has gone through highs and lows, but he’s a veteran southpaw in the ‘pen and the club will probably hang onto him.
So… the puzzle is complete now, right? Right??
The Extra Pieces
Turns out, there are at least two major differences between roster building and sudoku…
1. Each spot in the puzzle doesn’t necessarily have one perfect answer.
2. There are more players than there are spaces to write them all.
These players would make excellent trade chips if the Guardians decide to make a big playoff push at some point, but they also make great backup plans if some of the guys penciled into the puzzle don’t pan out.
Regardless, we’ve filled in the puzzle! So we’re done, right? Well… not exactly.
Finding the real solution.
Sure, we’ve filled in the puzzle the best we can, but remember, this is was the criteria we used for solving it:
Put together a roster with the best possible chance of winning a World Series within the next four years.
If I’m Antonetti and Chernoff, I’m proud of how this puzzle looks after using internal options only. But I’m also smart enough to realize that this roster does not have a very good chance of winning a title. Looking at the board right now, I’d be asking myself some tough questions, including…
1. What are my best options to improve my 1B/DH situation?
2. Is Angel Genao’s value really utilized appropriately as a backup infielder, or or should I maximize it by making him a trade chip?
3. What am I willing to give up in order to upgrade the top of my rotation?
4. Can I stomach Ingle’s defense enough to shoehorn him into a backup catcher role?
5. How long am I willing to wait for Steven Kwan to turn things around before deciding it’s time to move on?6. Which external trade candidates are actually available for a cost I’m comfortable with?
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Some puzzles take time.
The truth is that as much effort as we put into this exercise, the answers and outlook will continue to change as players develop, break out, bust, fall off, or rebound. We’ll almost never be able to put together a set of answers that still look satisfying a couple of months later.
Regardless, viewing roster building through this lens can give us some key insights into a front office’s process. It also may help us realize how tough these decisions can be, and why a lot of patience is necessary in order to make the right choices.
I’d imagine that if we can all find some of that patience within us, we’re much more likely to enjoy watching the answers take shape.
