We’ve been doing this for several years now. We reviewed some of the top free agents, as rated by Keith Law in The Athletic and Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, using the contracts FanGraphs suggests they will
receive, and asked if we should sign them.
FanGraphs has Bo #8 in their top 50 prospect list. Keith Law has him #2 which seems more appropriate to me.
You all know enough about Bo. He’s 27 now, he’ll be 28 by the start of the 2026 season. I don’t think he’s a shortstop anymore, but I’d imagine there are teams that would let him play short, if it meant he would sign with them.
I’d love him to come back, because I’m interested in watching the rest of his career. Sometimes guys get to free agency, and I think I’ve watched him for long enough, let someone else watch him. Bo, I’d like to see his career play out. I’m not sure he’ll be a great player for the next seven years, but I’d bet he’ll be great for some of those seven.
Keith Law said:
Before this postseason, Bichette had never played an inning in the majors anywhere other than shortstop, but it’s time for him to make that move to second base permanently. He hasn’t had a positive Runs Above Average measurement for his defense except for the shortened 2020 season, and was at minus-10 this past year, which means his defense cost the Jays a full win of value. His bat will still make him a star at the keystone, and he might be an above-average defender there.
Bichette’s unusual swing and fringy bat speed haven’t stopped him from posting above-average contact rates, including a career-best 14.5 percent strikeout rate in 2025, and hard-hit rates always above the median with a peak of 50.3 percent in 2022. Put him at second base and even if he’s an average defender he’ll be a 4.5-5 win player for many years. He should get more than Willy Adames did last winter.
Ben Clemens:
Despite that strong pedigree, I’d definitely prefer the seven players listed ahead of him here. For me, Bichette’s lack of impact defense means that he’s one of the players who WAR overvalues most; sure, he’s a shortstop, but he’s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. I think that teams across the majors would prefer to move him to second base, but even there, I think he’d probably be a defensive liability, and that’s before we get into age-related decline. Some of his issues might be due to injury, but that’s even scarier; he’s made six trips to the IL in the past three years, and his footspeed has paid the price.
hat’s the dimmest possible view you could take of Bichette: a faux shortstop who our flagship statistic overrates. But the counterpoint is pretty easy, too: He’s 20% above average offensively, and come on, you don’t think he can learn to play second base if he’s healthy? He would have had a top five batting line at the position this year. Plenty of shortstops have shifted positions and turned into good defenders at their new spot. Bichette’s bat really is a difference maker, even if I think his value sometimes gets overstated as a result. In sum, even though Bichette isn’t my kind of free agent, he’s unquestionably very good, and I’m quite sure that many teams will be interested in continuing the young-star-shortstop-gets-paid trend.
Ben thinks Bo will get a seven-year contract, at $29 million a year, for a total of $203 million. If he gets a bidding war going, he might do better than that. But let’s use that number.
