The Houston Texans are riding a two-game winning streak heading into Thursday night’s showdown with the Buffalo Bills. Making Houston’s win streak more impressive is that they’ve done it with a backup
quarterback, as Davis Mills has stepped in and played well in place of C.J. Stroud. Houston’s starter has missed the last two games with a concussion, and he’s been ruled out for Week 12.
With the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and an offense full of weapons, the Texans are not a team to take lightly. Whether it’s Stroud or Mills throwing passes, Houston has more than enough talent to make Buffalo’s night miserable.
How will the Bills earn their first win in Houston since the 2006 season? They’ll need to start by limiting the Texans’ top players on both sides of the ball. Here are five Texans to watch this week.
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RB Woody Marks
The way Buffalo has “defended” the run this season — and I use that term loosely in Buffalo’s case — I wouldn’t put it past Woody Johnson to run for 50 yards and a score. Take your pick between Marks and Nick Chubb, as any running back worth his salt can make the Bills’ defense look silly.
Buffalo is No. 29 in total rushing yards allowed, No. 31 in yards per carry allowed, No. 32 in rushing touchdowns allowed, No. 30 in 20-plus yard rushes allowed, and No. 32 in 40-plus yard rushes allowed. Houston’s rushing offense is mediocre at best, as they rank No. 23 in rushing yards, No. 22 in yards per carry, and No. 26 in rushing touchdowns.
None of that makes me believe that the Texans won’t be able to find room in the run game. Buffalo needs to make sure that Houston continues to struggle in this phase of the game, because if they can allow their pass rushers to go after Mills, then they will have a much easier time this week. If Marks and Chubb can combine for a solid outing, it’s going to make things harder for Buffalo. Marks is a good young back who is an adept receiver, as well.
WR Nico Collins
Even without Stroud, Collins has remained a force. In the last two games, Collins has 16 catches on 25 targets for 228 yards and a score. Those are monster numbers. For context, Collins’ numbers in those two games alone essentially equal Joshua Palmer’s total season numbers (Palmer has 16 catches on 25 targets for 251 yards this season).
When these two teams met last season, Collins was on his way to absolutely shredding the Buffalo defense before a hamstring injury took him out. It also gave the Bills a chance at a comeback.
Collins is going to be a focal point of Houston’s offense; therefore, he needs to be a focal point of the Buffalo defense. Christian Benford and Maxwell Hairston are going to need to cover him. If the Bills think Tre’Davious White or Ja’Marcus Ingram will suffice, they should prepare for a long night.
TE Dalton Schultz
Similar to Collins, Schultz’s production hasn’t wavered at all in Stroud’s absence. In two games with Mills starting, Schultz has seen 20 targets, and he’s caught 13 of them for 104 yards and a score.
The Bills have done a pretty good job on tight ends all season, and that has to continue on Thursday. With a linebacker group that seems to be coming closer to full health, plus a resurgent safety group led by second-year man Cole Bishop and veteran Jordan Poyer, the middle of the field has been much more covered in the passing game.
Schultz is a big-bodied player who can hurt the Bills at multiple levels of play, so they’ll need to make sure that they have a solid plan for him while also preventing Collins from beating them over the top. It’s not going to be easy, but Buffalo’s linebackers and slot corners — whether it’s Taron Johnson, Cam Lewis, or Jordan Hancock — are going to find themselves matched up with Schultz frequently. They’ll need to be up to the challenge.
LB Aziz Al-Shaair
He’s rangy, he’s tough, he’s good against the pass, and he’s a borderline dirty player in the middle of one of the league’s best defenses. Al-Shaair is just as likely to spy quarterback Josh Allen as he is to drop in coverage against tight end Dawson Knox. He could also look to eliminate Khalil Shakir if he runs shallow crossers over the middle, and he may also be used as a blitzer at times, as well. He’s a well-rounded linebacker with a well-documented history of head-hunting, as he’s been fined nine times and suspended for three games for repeated infractions.
The Bills are a team that feeds on emotion and physicality, but they’ll need to make sure No. 0 is taken care of in any protection scheme. Allen and company have been fooled plenty this season on overloads and misdirection blitzes. That can’t happen on Thursday night.
DE Danielle Hunter
I’m going with Hunter here, but man, what a defensive unit Houston has. We could talk about defensive end Will Anderson, who has 14 quarterback hits, eight sacks, and 12 tackles for loss. We could talk about cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who has three interceptions and 11 pass breakups. We could talk about safety Calen Bullock, who has two interceptions after notching five picks as a rookie.
Instead, we’ll shout out the veteran edge rusher who leads the team in sacks with nine. Hunter has been a great player for a long time, as he has 108.5 sacks and 134 tackles for loss over his 10-year professional career. Whether it’s right tackkle Spencer Brown or left tackle Dion Dawkins, Buffalo’s tackles will have their hands full.
We may see some heavy personnel packages and play-action passes where Jackson Hawes is used to chip and release in order to wear down those big defensive ends up front. Keeping Josh Allen upright and clean in the pocket is always priority number one, but Buffalo offensive line will need its best effort this week.
