The Fighting Illini are now 5-1 and face the No. 1 team in the nation in Champaign, Saturday at 11 a.m., and the Fox Big Noon Kickoff crew will be back in town. The Illini have a chance to cause a huge
shift in the Big Ten race and College Football Playoff rankings (when they start coming out soon).
THE SCENARIO
The Big Ten race could look upside down if Illinois can take down Ohio State, and you also have two undefeated teams in Indiana and Oregon locking horns. So, one of them will lose, and if Illinois takes down the Buckeyes, the conference race will be totally up for grabs. Early lines have Illinois as a two-score underdog at home. Illinois is 3-14 all-time vs. No. 1 teams. Eleven of these games have come against the Buckeyes. The Illini are 2-9 in those games. At home, the Illini are 12-27 vs. Ohio State, with the last home win coming in 1991.
TALE OF THE TAPE.
- Defense – Opponents’ PPG, Ohio St 5 – Illinois 24, Passing yards allowed: Ohio St 124- Illinois 252. Rushing yards allowed: Ohio St. 91.4, Illinois 135.5.
- Offense, PPG Ohio St. 37.4 – Illinois 37. Passing yards, Ohio St 279 – Illinois 267. Rush yards is a slightly larger difference: Ohio St. 171.6 -Illinois 130.7.
PLAYER MATCHUPS
- QB, Ohio St. – Julian Sayin 1,313 yards passing and 13 TDs. Illinois – Luke Altmyer 1,573 yards passing and 15 TDs. Altmyer is the more experienced of the two quarterbacks, and at this point in the season is outplaying Sayin. Edge Illinois.
- WR Ohio St. Jeremiah Smith, 463 yards, six TDs. Illinois Hank Beatty, 569 yards, two TDs. This is another case of the Illini having a more experienced player. However, Smith does have a knack for finding the endzone more often. Even
- RB Ohio St. Bo Jackson 48 carries 360 two TDs. Illinois Ca’Lil Valentine 61 carries 323 yards three TDs, Kaden Feagin 79 carries, 316 yards five TDs. As a freshman, Jackson has emerged this season as a go-to RB but does have a capable backup in CJ Donaldson, 45 carries, 193 yards, and four TDs. Even
- Defense, Ohio St. DL Caden Curry 29 Tackles 8.5, TFLs (five coming Sept 27, vs Washington), five sacks, DB Caleb Downs 19 tackles, two TFLs, one interception. Curry is a first-class D-Lineman who penetrates and creates a lot of chaos. Downs is a solid defender and will likely focus on Beatty.
Illinois DL Gabe Jacas had 19 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, and four sacks. The Illinois secondary is getting healthy, after the Indiana game, and has actually created some depth behind Matthew Bailey 31 tackles, one TFL, one Forced Fumble, one Fumble Recovery. The Illini defense has created 10 takeaways (8 fumble recoveries and 2 Interceptions) this season.
WHAT IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO…
For the Illini to come out successful, it starts on the line, especially the offensive line. Having Josh Kreutz back will be huge, but so will eliminating mistakes, not just in penalties, but also in blocking schemes. The defensive line must come up big as well. They need to put pressure on Sayin and not let him get into a rhythm. The LB corps will have to play hard and aggressive football. In the secondary, except Xavier Scott, everyone else is relatively healthy. But look for Ohio State to test the Illini secondary early in hopes of a big play strike.
As far as offense, Altmyer is one of the best at taking what the defense will give him in the passing game, and Ohio State will be keying in on Beatty. So, look for more opportunities for Collin Dixon, Justin Bowick, and Hudson Clement. Running the ball will be key, which again relies on the O-line to give Valentine and Feagin room to run. Additionally, I am hopeful that Aidan Laughery will return as the third running option.
I understand that Ohio State is a popular choice, and they have been impressive. But in all honesty, who have they played? Ohio State’s closest game was a 14-7 season-opening win over Texas. They haven’t been seriously challenged since with games vs Grambling State, Ohio, Washington, and Minnesota. Of course, Illini fans are well aware of the 63-10 debacle vs. Indiana. And yes, there were weaker games against Western Illinois and Western Michigan, but Duke was and is a solid ACC team, and the defeat of USC at home was notable. I think Illinois has played the more rigorous schedule to this point. That could be the biggest key; they have been punched in the mouth and, for the most part, responded with resolve. It will need to be a complete game effort from the Illini, being at home should help with a sellout crowd. David Olano could come up big again!
Thanks for reading and GO ILLINI!
