It comes with the territory of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2026 NFL draft, but new Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza has been unfairly scrutinized as a “one-year wonder”. Sure, the Heisman trophy winner’s best season was this past one at Indiana. But make no mistake about it, he was a baller at Cal before hitting the transfer portal and linking up with Curt Cignetti in Bloomington.
In typical Mendoza fashion, he didn’t have an eye-catching stat line during the 2024 campaign, completing
68.7 percent of his passes for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. But the former Golden Bear showed plenty of traits on tape that people who pay close attention to the draft took note of heading into the 2025 season.
Cory Kinnan from Daft on Draft called his shot just a few days after the 2025 draft, deeming Mendoza the top quarterback in this year’s class when the overarching thought was that Arch Manning was destined to be the No. 1 pick. Additionally, Bleacher Report’s Scouting Department had Mendoza as the top quarterback and sixth-ranked prospect overall at the beginning of August (h/t offensive skill position scout Dame Parson).
In other words, don’t buy the narrative that the Raiders’ new quarterback is just riding the high of one good season. He was a stud at UC Berkeley, too. On that note, let’s take a look at a few throws from his 2024 games against Auburn and Stanford.
Something that stands out about Mendoza’s tape at Cal is his ability to create outside of the structure of the play call. That wasn’t as prevalent at Indiana and was considered one of the knocks on him as a draft prospect. Part of it was that the Hoosiers had more talent, so there weren’t as many opportunities for the off-script plays as there were with the Golden Bears.
To be clear, this is still an area of improvement for the No. 1 overall pick. But it is good to see that he has a few tools in the bag to turn to if the play call breaks down, as the ability to throw on the run or make plays with his legs is certainly there.
Both Indiana and Cal ran RPO-heavy passing attacks, which most college programs do nowadays. That led to some calling Mendoza a “one-read” quarterback. However, that was more a product of the system than being indicative of his skillset, as both programs opened up the playbook on third- and fourth-downs, especially the Golden Bears.
Of the two plays above, the second one really stands out to me. Partially because it was a crucial play in the famous “98 yards with my boys” drive in Cal’s comeback win over its biggest rival, Stanford.
It’s fourth and two with the Golden Bears down four in the fourth quarter. They’re expecting man coverage and dial up a mesh concept to create a natural pick and beat the coverage. However, the Cardinal drop into a zone coverage, changing the quarterback’s read.
Especially with the poach safety sitting on the hash mark to take away the deep over route, the first four options in the quarterback’s progression are covered. So, Mendoza continues to work through his reads and eventually finds the tight end, who is being covered by a line of scrimmage defender, and gets the fourth-down conversion to keep the game-winning drive alive.
The Heisman Trophy winner’s ability to throw under pressure has never been in question and was viewed as one of his biggest strengths entering the draft. That was certainly apparent this past season at Indiana, especially on the big stage of the Big Ten Championship, but the foundation was laid during his time at Cal.
The last two clips in the reel above are what stood out to me the most.
The first goes down as a simple check-down on the passing chart, but it’s much more than that. David Bailey, the 2026 No. 2 overall pick, is unblocked and barrelling down on Mendoza before the tight end/fullback can get his head around on the flat route. So, the quarterback takes one step up in the pocket to buy some time and changes his arm angle to get the ball around the pass-rusher and dump it to the tight end for a first down.
The second caps off the previously referenced “98 yards with my boys” drive, and is very similar to his “Heisman moment” against Penn State this past season. Staring right at a free rusher coming through the A-gap, Mendoza delivers a perfectly placed ball on the post route for the game-winning touchdown.
Along similar lines, Mendoza’s ball placement on go routes and ability to hit back shoulder throws gained a lot of notoriety during Indiana’s National Championship run. But his Cal tape is littered with the same type of throws, too.
That being said, the former Golden Bear/Hoosier did show significant improvement when pushing the ball down the field this past season. According to Pro Football Focus, he had 12 “big-time throws” and a 40.9 percent adjusted completion rate to earn a 79.3 passing grade on pass attempts 20 or more yards past the line of scrimmage. Those numbers bumped up to 19 BTTs, 54.5 percent and a 93.4 mark in 2025.
Long story short, make no mistake about it, Fernando Mendoza is more than just a one-year wonder and was laying the foundation to become the No. 1 overall pick of the draft during his time at Cal.
