Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them.
Next up isone of the best pitchers in Japan’s NPB, who is on his way to North America.
Who is he and where does he come from?
Tatsuya Imai is a 27-year-old starting pitcher who has spent eight seasons with the Seibu Lions of the NPB (Japan). He was posted by the Lions on November 19th and has a deadline of January 2nd to sign with a Major League Baseball team.
Is he any good?
Imai seems likely to be the most impactful player who has been posted from Japan entering 2026, although Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, a pair of corner infielders, could make their case as well.
Mainly featuring a fastball, slider, and changeup, Imai has a six-pitch mix in total. He has a three-quarters arm slot, with a fastball sitting at 95 and touching 99 mph. Here’s a more thorough breakdown from MLB.com:
Jim Allen, who has covered Japanese baseball for a long time, spoke about Imai recently. Allen feels that Imai has “all the tools” to succeed in MLB, and showed “a steady growth pattern, improving in every category year after year.”
Imai threw eight no-hit innings in an April start, which was finished off for a combined no-hitter. In June, he struck out 17 batters in a complete game in which he walked none.
Imai did not win the Eiji Sawamura Award, which is the Cy Young equivalent in the NPB. That went to Hiromi Itoh, who had a 2.52 ERA (to Imai’s 1.92), but Itoh started three more games and thus had a strong edge in Wins, IP, and Ks.
My favorite tidbit when looking at the Sawamura Award is that if the voters don’t think anyone is worthy of the award, they just … don’t hand it out at all, which happened last year.
“Yamamoto’s gone? None of you get it, then. You all suck.”
TLDR: just give me his 2025 stats.
24 GS, 163 2/3 IP, 10-5 W-L, 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 45 BB, 172 K, 5 CG, 3 SHO.
Why would he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
If you’ve been interested in Joe Ryan over the past six months as a fit on the Red Sox, then you should probably also be interested in Tatsuya Imai. As Eno Sarris shows here, Imai and Ryan’s fastball release and shape are almost identical:
“Imai’s fastball is a near match for Joe Ryan’s fastball. Even if you lump in all four fastballs that comp well to Imai’s fastball, the group’s four-seamers were above-average by Stuff+, whiff rates, batting average and slugging when put against league-average fastballs. Most likely, Imai’s low-slot fastball with surprising ride will play well high in the zone and be an asset to him in MLB.”
He also seems to be extremely competitive and believes in himself. Imai doesn’t want to jump on with any of the Japanese players that have come over before him; he just wants to beat them, he told old friend Daisuke Matsuzaka on the show Hodo Station:
“Of course, I’d enjoy playing alongside Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Sasaki. But winning against a team like that and becoming a world champion would be the most valuable thing in my life. If anything, I’d rather take them down.”
After some of the hatred coming from the Sox staff about the Yankees, which Matt Gross outlined last week, it sounds like he’d fit right in with this group!
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
He isn’t cheap, and the Red Sox have already added a pitcher in Sonny Gray for $21M this offseason, which is in the range that Imai will likely get. Kylie McDaniel projects Imai to get six years and $157M, which includes a $22+M posting fee to the Seibu Lions. That would be a $26.2M AAV.
It’s also hard to say what the final roster is going to look like. Let’s say that Brayan Bello is moved as part of a trade for hitting. In that case, Imai could be signed as your #2 SP and form a killer top-three with Crochet and Gray before the plethora of options fighting for the last two spots. But as currently constituted, it’s a rotation that already feels crowded, and there’s a lot of focus that is needed on hitting to make this a complete team in 2026.
Show me a cool highlight.
17 Ks and no walks in a complete game shutout this past June. Complete with a sword in the sheath celebration after one of the strikeouts. All the nastiness on display in one clip.
Smash or Pass?
If I felt that the Red Sox had the type of payroll that could add two impact hitters, a number two starter, and still add to the bullpen, then Imai might be the best arm remaining on the market that the team could add. Unfortunately, I don’t think they’ll spend like that unless they can find ways to add impact bats on the cheap. After adding Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, the starting pitcher options are getting cramped in the Sox system, and it’s hard to see another $25M+ AAV pitcher being added to the mix. It’s a smash on the talent, but a Pass on the fit.
