The Cleveland Guardians got a key win against the Boston Red Sox last night, leaving their magic number to clinch a postseason berth at two. What should Guardians’ fans be watching for starting with tonight’s primetime matchup with the Red Sox and Sonny Gray?
First, obviously, the Guardians are trying to beat Boston, again, while rooting for the Mariners to GET THEIR CRAP TOGETHER and beat the Astros and the Mets to remember they have a billion dollar roster for one more night and beat the Rangers
again. If either of those events happen, the Guardians’ magic number reduces by one more. So… a win over the Red Sox and a loss by either Houston or Texas and Cleveland has punched their ticket to October baseball. The Astros will start Ethan Pecko who doesn’t strike anyone out and won’t be out there more than like three innings at the most, so, that helps, but the Mariners are starting George Kirby who has a 4.24 ERA. Come on, Seattle, play spoiler for those hated ‘Stros. The Mets will start Nolan McLean who is good and has a 3.18 ERA while the Rangers do a sort of bullpen game starting Cody Bradford who has a 4.19 ERA. So, there is hope all around here.
As for the Guardians tonight, they face old nemesis Sonny Gray. In the past three years, Gray has pitched 15 innings against the Guardians to the tune of an 0.60 ERA. It’s a small sample size! But, of course, Gray does have a 2.82 ERA this season. He is, unfortunately, very good. So, the Guardians will need to find a hero or two offensively. Petey Halpin hit a home run off Gray earlier this season; start him today. Give it a shot. Travis Bazzana has a .429 wOBA, Austin Hedges and Brayan Rocchio have .349 wOBA’s against him, and in 30 pitches seen Jo Adell has a .300 wOBA against him. Is that good? No. But it’s way better than the rest of the Guardians’ options have against Gray. It’s probably all mostly small sample size; Gray is just good and they need to put up good at-bats and come through with runners in scoring position.
ALSO, of course, it would be a good time right now for Foster Griffin to really put forth the kind of effort the Guardians were hoping for when they acquired him at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, the Red Sox do have a 107 wRC+ against LHP this season; however, they are missing Willson Contreras who was a big piece of that. They do still have bats who can provide some right-handed thump like Adley Rutschmann, Jahmai Jones, Trevor Story, Caleb Durbin, Nate Eaton, and Andruw Monastario. Griffin will have to find a way to keep them at bay for a while, and I suspect we will need a return scoreless appearance from Craig Yoho and no gopherballs tonight from Hunter Gaddis. The Red Sox for the season have been +4 runs above average when facing lefties against Griffin’s best pitch (the cutter), but they’ve been -0.6 against sinkers and -4.9 against changeups, so I’d see if Griffin can leverage those two offerings into some outs tonight if I were designing the gameplan.
Finally, of course, we ideally want the Guardians to find a way to hang on to their slim one-game lead in the AL Central and get the #2 seed in MLB’s postseason bracket, including the bye. BUT, the Chicago White Sox have the tiebreaker and they are playing the terrible Royals and then the even more terrible Colorado Rockies to end the year. Tonight, the White Sox will open with very good reliever Bryan Hudson and then go to Erick Fedde, who is a solid but not dominant arm. The Royals will start the very bad Seth Lugo with an ERA over 5. He has surrendered a .341 wOBA to the White Sox this year, which is also bad. BUT, the Royals scored 11 runs last night. Let’s hope they can do that again because they’ll probably need it. The Royals will start Randy Dobnak on Thursday and he has a 3.08 ERA (somehow!) and they’ll be facing the back end of the White Sox rotation… so that may be the best chance for Chicago to lose a game this series. The Guardians, however, will be facing lefty Ranger Suarez who is good… and will need David Fry and Jo Adell to make some noise in that one.
Pitching rotations are not set for the Astros and Rangers after today, but the Mets will throw Zac Thornton who has a 3.40 ERA against Texas on Thursday. Meanwhile, to face the Astros, the Athletics will throw Mason Barnett who is capable of a decent performance but not great, Jacob Lopez who is like Logan Allen but worse, Jack Perkins who has been very good his last two starts, and Brady Basso who hasn’t been good but whose expected numbers look better. The Athletics are bad, no doubt, but they do have a bit of kick to them and should be motivated to spoil things for big bad Houston. The Rangers wrap up their season with three versus the Twins, who should be throwing Joe Ryan one of those games, so that’s the one to steal.
For the Guardians, Travis Bazzana needs to find it again soon, we need some Playoff Rocchio and Hero Hosey, and the bullpen will have to hold up while Griffin, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee finish strong. The team has been putting up good at-bats and finding a way. I believe they can continue to do so – we will see where they end up on Sunday evening!
